Your Expectations for this Season?

[bazza]

Coral have us at 13th. They actually have Ipswich and Sheff Wed above us. I think we'll finish top 6 providing we get a good CF or two.

My problem is every time I forecast Rovers to do well they always let me down.

So my final word is bottom 6. Does that make sense?

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

1 hour ago, bazza said:

Coral have us at 13th. They actually have Ipswich and Sheff Wed above us. I think we'll finish top 6 providing we get a good CF or two.

My problem is every time I forecast Rovers to do well they always let me down.

So my final word is bottom 6. Does that make sense?

Given our inability to put the ball in the back of the net 13th is probably about right. Get somebody in who can actually score goals and no doubt the odds will change.

[philipl]

Sticking with top 2 

[joey_big_nose]

We have to make top six this year. Just outside two years in a row, seemingly good manager who is demanding more quality goal scoring signings. I am assuming if the club had not assured the manager that we are bringing in a quality goal scorer (or two) JDT would have left by now.

The squad is, imo, very good in every department except putting the ball in the net. If we get that sorted then we should be confident. 

That said Championship is an absolute bastard of a league - I am sure Norwich and West Brom etc went into last season similarly confident and it blew up in their face. That's what I like about it really, unlike the Prem everyone goes into the first fixture with no real idea on how things will pan out.

But anything outside top six will be an unambiguous failure in my eyes. I do harbour hopes that we will be competitive for the top two.

[Mattyblue]

8 hours ago, philipl said:

Sticking with top 2 

Love the optimism, but you do get carried away for such a wise old owl (Wharton better than Bellingham at the same stage wasn’t it the other week?)

it’s not the norm for non parachute clubs to get top two and I’m not seeing this squad of players being close to good enough/large enough to get there - there’s a reason the parachute clubs pull away in the run in most seasons.

[LeftWinger]

3 hours ago, Mattyblue said:

Love the optimism, but you do get carried away for such a wise old owl (Wharton better than Bellingham at the same stage wasn’t it the other week?)

it’s not the norm for non parachute clubs to get top two and I’m not seeing this squad of players being close to good enough/large enough to get there - there’s a reason the parachute clubs pull away in the run in most seasons.

This backs up what you're saying:

• Over the last 10 seasons – the Champions have been a side that was relegated from the Premier League 50% of the time. The Champions have been a relegated side in each of the last three years – showing the increased influence of parachute payments.
• Six of the sides achieving automatic promotion in the last 10 years did so after previously being in League One – compared to 14 sides returning to the Premier League. Four of those six sides got promoted as Champions.
• No side finishing 6^th has been promoted in the last 10 years. In fact 80% of the teams promoted via the play-offs finished either 3^rd or 4^th.
• Aston Villa are the only side promoted in the last 10 years after achieving less than 80 points. Rovers’ have achieved 69 points for two years running.
• The average seasons in the championship before promotion for the teams finishing as runners up has been 3.8 seasons over the last 10 years – but the average is 1.8 seasons over the last 5 years.
• Leeds took 10 seasons in the Championship to get automatic promotion. They’re the only team to achieve automatic promotion in the last 5 years that spent longer than 3 years in the Championship.
• No side has achieved automatic promotion in the last 3 seasons having previously been promoted from League One. This is compared to 43% of the automatic promotion spots being taken by teams previously promoted from League One (over the first 7 years of the sample).
• This will be Rovers’ 6^th season at this level since being promoted from League One. They would be emulating Brighton in 2016/17 if they managed automatic promotion.

[Bohinen1983]

I was shocked how high we finished last season.. I think unless we make a few seriously good signings we might be in trouble.

Whilst we have replaced Lenihan and Nyambe we've lost (and not replaced) way too much attacking/technical talent over the past couple of seasons..

Armstrong 

Brereton

Rothwell

I think we're massively short up-top, lack pace and a genuine ball carrying midfielder..

Hopefully these issues will be addressed.  I think if the season started today we'd be in a dog-fight- even more so if we let Kaminski leave..

If Pears reverts to his previous version couple with a lack of goals and a couple of injuries (JRC, Brittain) coupled with the new lads not settling it could be a very ropey season.

 

[Butty]

As of now I’d have us around 10th-12th, the division looks stronger this season. We need more bodies through the door. 

[Mashed Potatoes]

5 hours ago, LeftWinger said:

This backs up what you're saying:

• Over the last 10 seasons – the Champions have been a side that was relegated from the Premier League 50% of the time. The Champions have been a relegated side in each of the last three years – showing the increased influence of parachute payments.
• Six of the sides achieving automatic promotion in the last 10 years did so after previously being in League One – compared to 14 sides returning to the Premier League. Four of those six sides got promoted as Champions.
• No side finishing 6^th has been promoted in the last 10 years. In fact 80% of the teams promoted via the play-offs finished either 3^rd or 4^th.
• Aston Villa are the only side promoted in the last 10 years after achieving less than 80 points. Rovers’ have achieved 69 points for two years running.
• The average seasons in the championship before promotion for the teams finishing as runners up has been 3.8 seasons over the last 10 years – but the average is 1.8 seasons over the last 5 years.
• Leeds took 10 seasons in the Championship to get automatic promotion. They’re the only team to achieve automatic promotion in the last 5 years that spent longer than 3 years in the Championship.
• No side has achieved automatic promotion in the last 3 seasons having previously been promoted from League One. This is compared to 43% of the automatic promotion spots being taken by teams previously promoted from League One (over the first 7 years of the sample).
• This will be Rovers’ 6^th season at this level since being promoted from League One. They would be emulating Brighton in 2016/17 if they managed automatic promotion.

Yes, a post that puts things in perspective.

In each of the last 5 seasons 2 of the promoted clubs have been in receipt of parachute payments, despite usually there only being 5 clubs or so who have them- the other 19 clubs getting the 1 other spot. The odds are stacked against the clubs who don't have parachute payments.

[RoverKyle]

We should really be aiming for at least the top 6 following the last two seasons. That being said, where our squad is right now & looking at some of the other teams in the league, we're probably a good top half shout. 

A couple of decent attacking signings and we could really push on. Hopefully they get their men. 

 

[philipl]

Two genuine questions. 

Rather than Adam and Ash, which pair of teenagers at a Championship club would we rather have?

Given the freedom to do an exchange, which Championship DoF/coach combo would be an upgrade on GB/JDT?

[wilsdenrover]

2 hours ago, philipl said:

Two genuine questions. 

Rather than Adam and Ash, which pair of teenagers at a Championship club would we rather have?

Given the freedom to do an exchange, which Championship DoF/coach combo would be an upgrade on GB/JDT?

I don’t know enough about all the other clubs to answer either of those questions.

What i do know is having the best pair of teenagers ( if indeed we do) and the best DoF/coach combo (again, if we do) is not the same as having a top two squad. 

[47er]

9 hours ago, Bohinen1983 said:

I was shocked how high we finished last season.. I think unless we make a few seriously good signings we might be in trouble.

Whilst we have replaced Lenihan and Nyambe we've lost (and not replaced) way too much attacking/technical talent over the past couple of seasons..

Armstrong 

Brereton

Rothwell

I think we're massively short up-top, lack pace and a genuine ball carrying midfielder..

Hopefully these issues will be addressed.  I think if the season started today we'd be in a dog-fight- even more so if we let Kaminski leave..

If Pears reverts to his previous version couple with a lack of goals and a couple of injuries (JRC, Brittain) coupled with the new lads not settling it could be a very ropey season.

 

You're missing Dack from that list as well.

[philipl]

7 hours ago, wilsdenrover said:

I don’t know enough about all the other clubs to answer either of those questions.

What i do know is having the best pair of teenagers ( if indeed we do) and the best DoF/coach combo (again, if we do) is not the same as having a top two squad. 

Anyone else offering a stab at answering my question?

I genuinely cannot come up with any pairs in the Championship I would swap for.

Here is the twist, if we do have the stand outs in both break through youngsters and off field football management, the rest of the outfit only needs to be equal to the rest of the Championship to be in with a top two chance.

Yes I am sticking my neck out particularly because I am keeping to my minimum of an additional 5 in and 3 out by end of this window transfers/loans forecast.

 

Edited July 13, 2023 by philipl

[Mattyblue]

This budget, this squad won’t suddenly change to automatic promotion because of a couple of highly promising teenagers (and Phillips will only start relatively few games anyway) and because Gregg can find free transfers. 

Head in the clouds, I’m afraid.
 

 

Edited July 13, 2023 by Mattyblue

[wilsdenrover]

2 hours ago, philipl said:

Anyone else offering a stab at answering my question?

I genuinely cannot come up with any pairs in the Championship I would swap for.

Here is the twist, if we do have the stand outs in both break through youngsters and off field football management, the rest of the outfit only needs to be equal to the rest of the Championship to be in with a top two chance.

Yes I am sticking my neck out particularly because I am keeping to my minimum of an additional 5 in and 3 out by end of this window transfers/loans forecast.

 

That’s an awful lot of ifs but I do admire your willingness to share your optimism on here.

For what it’s worth, I think we’re currently looking at 10th - 12th.

With the ‘right’ signings for right sided attacker and centre forward, I’d probably change that to 4th - 6th.

 

[Waggy76]

I suspect there will be some kind of levelling up this season.

After 2 seasons of achieving 69 points .

Mowbray was not sure how he did it and last season was an over achievement of large proportions..

Who is going to score the goals ? BBD has left , I can not see us replacing his goals from last season never mind the season before ..

I think we will be in the bottom half this year , hope I am proved wrong but I just can't see it !

 

Edited July 13, 2023 by Waggy76

[MarkBRFC]

Top 2 is dreamland talk.

We'll be nowhere near it this season.

[Wheelton Blue]

4 hours ago, philipl said:

Anyone else offering a stab at answering my question?

I genuinely cannot come up with any pairs in the Championship I would swap for.

Here is the twist, if we do have the stand outs in both break through youngsters and off field football management, the rest of the outfit only needs to be equal to the rest of the Championship to be in with a top two chance.

Yes I am sticking my neck out particularly because I am keeping to my minimum of an additional 5 in and 3 out by end of this window transfers/loans forecast.

 

I'll bite.

In your hypothetical scenario, if the 'rest of the outfit' was 'equal to the rest of the Championship' then, by definition, we'd at least be on par with the best teams in the league. Ergo, we'd likely be a top 2 team.

Obviously, that's nonsense.

[AllRoverAsia]

1 hour ago, MarkBRFC said:

Top 2 is dreamland talk.

We'll be nowhere near it this season.

Thanks, saved me the bother.

If we finish in a playoff spot it will be a great feat against those who've come down, those who've come up, those who underperformed last season and others who are of similar standard to us.

But it's Championship football so all things are possible and without wanting to be negative I do mean all.

Edited July 13, 2023 by AllRoverAsia

[Admiral Nelsen]

Expectations for the season rest almost entirely on whether the new forwards are up to scratch or not. I suppose you'd throw in whether we keep/replace Kaminski too. If the new recruits can turn us into a more threatening side, then top six should definitely be our target. If there's not much improvement on last year, then mid table.

 

The way I see it is that having gone through a tough transition, our squad is now pretty well drilled in how JDT wants us to play, and that we are a match for most teams in most areas of the pitch. Ironically our results tailed off the most last year when we actually started looking like a better team. We didn't pick up enough points in the last few months, but unlike the death spiral of the previous year, our performances were probably better than they had been all year and it was only our blunt attack that stopped good performances being good results. I'd only put the Norwich home game as one I remember from about February as one that we deserved to lose on the balance of play. 

 

What this means is that our 'floor' is pretty high. I can't see us being dragged into anything too concerning towards the bottom of the league, lower mid-table at worst. But realistically the top 6 as an expectation can only come with Ennis, Siggy and whoever else being a decent upgrade on Hedges and Gally. 

[smiller14]

23 hours ago, Bohinen1983 said:

I was shocked how high we finished last season.. I think unless we make a few seriously good signings we might be in trouble.

Whilst we have replaced Lenihan and Nyambe we've lost (and not replaced) way too much attacking/technical talent over the past couple of seasons..

Armstrong 

Brereton

Rothwell

I think we're massively short up-top, lack pace and a genuine ball carrying midfielder..

Hopefully these issues will be addressed.  I think if the season started today we'd be in a dog-fight- even more so if we let Kaminski leave..

If Pears reverts to his previous version couple with a lack of goals and a couple of injuries (JRC, Brittain) coupled with the new lads not settling it could be a very ropey season.

 

I'm not sure I agree that we could be in a dogfight. 

The only weakening of our squad is the exit of Brereton, which may be offset (at least to an extent) by Sigurdsson and Ennis. Let's not forget how ineffectual Brereton was for the second half of last season. 

Our midfield remains the exact same minus the much maligned Morton and with the new lad Tronstad in.

it would take a colossal fall off for us to fall from 7th to anything approaching a dogfight, and as of yet I don't think we are sufficiently weakened to be suitably concerned. At worst I think we bobble around in mid table. 

[Admiral Nelsen]

6 minutes ago, smiller14 said:

I'm not sure I agree that we could be in a dogfight. 

The only weakening of our squad is the exit of Brereton, which may be offset (at least to an extent) by Sigurdsson and Ennis. Let's not forget how ineffectual Brereton was for the second half of last season. 

Our midfield remains the exact same minus the much maligned Morton and with the new lad Tronstad in.

it would take a colossal fall off for us to fall from 7th to anything approaching a dogfight, and as of yet I don't think we are sufficiently weakened to be suitably concerned. At worst I think we bobble around in mid table. 

 

Completely agree. If we're in a relegation scrap, that will come from either an injury crisis or an unexpected implosion of form for me. Neither are impossible, but all things being equal there'll be at least a handful of sides which we should comfortably be better than, even without extra reinforcements. 

[Hasta]

Well pre-season games complete.

I would expect us with the squad we currently have to be between 11th and 14th. We will dominate the ball for long spells but simply not score enough. With the current squad, if we lose Wharton and Hyam for any long spell we could have a big problem

Edited July 30, 2023 by Hasta

[Exiled_Rover]

1 hour ago, Hasta said:

Well pre-season games complete.

I would expect us with the squad we currently have to be between 11th and 14th. We will dominate the ball for long spells but simply not score enough. With the current squad, if we lose Wharton and Hyam for any long spell we could have a big problem

Yep, didn't bring the 3 additional players we needed in for a promotion push so mid-table mediocrity it is.

Admirable considering the squad is 80% Academy graduates, but frustrating as a season ticket holder when you look at the cost of tickets elsewhere in the league.