We are going down (the pessimism thread)

[Blow-in]

Can we just move the relegation predictions to next season now? 🙂 

[Exiled_Rover]

12 minutes ago, Blow-in said:

Can we just move the relegation predictions to next season now? 🙂 

Too many teams won yesterday for us to be certain.

It's a bonkers league, especially at the end of the season when a third of the division is already on the beach and evidently a third of the division is scrapping for survival. 

Edited April 14 by Exiled_Rover

[Upside Down]

1 hour ago, Blow-in said:

Can we just move the relegation predictions to next season now? 🙂 

It's more of a guarantee next season.

[wilsdenrover]

3 hours ago, philipl said:

If we beat Sheffield Wednesday, Huddersfield have to have beaten Swansea AND Birmingham need to have drawn at Rotherham to leave us needing just a point to be safe barring a 9 goal swing in the last two rounds. 

If Huddersfield draw or lose, a Rovers win sees us safe. Birmingham also need to avoid defeat at Rotherham for a Rovers win not to seal safety with two to go irrespective of the Huddersfield result.

If Rovers beat Wednesday, we will be in the land of extremely unlikely probabilities to go down because not only do Huddersfield and Birmingham need to win all their three remaining games in effect, ALL of Millwall getting 2 points, Plymouth 4 pts, QPR and Stoke 5pts each AS WELL have to happen in their last 3 games. 

If we draw with Wednesday, Wednesday would need to win remaining games against West Brom and Sunderland, we would need to lose the last two AND Wednesday need to make up a 17 goal difference to finish above us. If Huddersfield lose against Swansea and we draw then they too need to win their last two and us lose our last two to finish above us.

If Rovers beat Wednesday, we will be in the land of extremely unlikely probabilities to go down because Millwall will need 2 points, Plymouth 4 pts, QPR and Stoke 5pts each AS WELL from their last 3 games. A draw is probably enough.

Only defeat to Wednesday puts us back in the soup but even then all except one of Sheffield Wednesday, Huddersfield, Birmingham, Stoke, QPR and Plymouth still would need to collect more points than us across the last three games for us to go down.

If we beat Wednesday we’re safe as they couldn’t catch us and only one of Huddersfield or Birmingham could.

[47er]

4 hours ago, philipl said:

If we beat Sheffield Wednesday, Huddersfield have to have beaten Swansea AND Birmingham need to have drawn at Rotherham to leave us needing just a point to be safe barring a 9 goal swing in the last two rounds. 

 

As I keep saying we need 4 points to be mathematically safe! As of this minute!

[Tom]

20 minutes ago, 47er said:

As I keep saying we need 4 points to be mathematically safe! As of this minute!

Or 3 if it comes on Sunday.

If that happens there is no permutation of results that enables Sheffield Wednesday and one of Huddersfield or Birmingham to catch us along with Rotherham occupying the bottom spot 

[martonrover]

To paraphrase Alan Partridge, stop getting pessimism wrong 😉 

[Hasta]

Updated

 

Edited April 15 by Hasta

[alcd]

QPRs fixtures are PNE and Leeds at home, Cov away last match.

[Hasta]

5 hours ago, alcd said:

QPRs fixtures are PNE and Leeds at home, Cov away last match.

Good spot. They weren't on the chart when I originally made it as they were above Rovers, so I had to add them this morning and obviously forgot to overtype their fixtures. 

Now corrected.

If you were a QPR fan today I imagine you'd be saying "we have to beat Preston".

Edited April 15 by Hasta

[Groundhog]

Nerves are already cranking up for Sunday

Are capable of producing two good displays in a row? 

[rob_of_the_rovers]

Since Eustace took over we're 20th. Fair to say it's probably going to be another rough season next if we manage to survive this one

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

11 minutes ago, rob_of_the_rovers said:

Since Eustace took over we're 20th. Fair to say it's probably going to be another rough season next if we manage to survive this one

Look where Leicester are ! Then I saw where Sheff Wed are !

Edited April 16 by Tyrone Shoelaces

[Bohinen1983]

We could be right back in the shit by Sunday afternoon. A few wins underneath us on Saturday followed by another abject home performance and we're back in the thick of it with the pressure firmly on...  I don't think we're safe just yet.

[Exiled_Rover]

3 hours ago, rob_of_the_rovers said:

Since Eustace took over we're 20th. Fair to say it's probably going to be another rough season next if we manage to survive this one

Without investment, yes. There are gaping holes in this squad. 

[Cuppliance]

For me personally, the 1 point we earned against Southampton and the 3 points we earned against Leeds make up for the 4 dropped against Rotherham and Millwall at home. Both were must wins and we drew them both. They are bonus points They made up for the points we shouldn't have dropped in my opinion.

[Exiled_Rover]

10 hours ago, Cuppliance said:

For me personally, the 1 point we earned against Southampton and the 3 points we earned against Leeds make up for the 4 dropped against Rotherham and Millwall at home. Both were must wins and we drew them both. They are bonus points They made up for the points we shouldn't have dropped in my opinion.

We drew against Rotherham and Huddersfield at home, lost to QPR at home and lost to Huddersfield away all within a few weeks.

JDT was literally taking us down.

[JHRover]

Eustace's has won 2 of his 13 league games in charge, and picked up 13 points from 39.

JDT won 10 of his 28 league games in charge, and picked up 33 points from 84.

Neither get credit for the 3 points against Stoke as neither picked the team or prepared for the game.

JDT won games more frequently than Eustace has. Eustace has lost games less frequently than JDT did.

If we go down then the season will have been 2/3 JDT and 1/3 Eustace. If we win 1 or more of our remaining 3 we are safe. If we don't then Eustace finishes the season with 2 wins in 16 league games, which I'm sure everyone can agree is an abysmal win return.

JDT's points return had us on track for survival (whoop dee doo) hence we were never particularly close to the drop zone under him.

 

[Mattyblue]

End of the day we don’t know how the season would’ve panned out under JDT but the players had downed tools and the form had fallen off a cliff, so even as a big JDT fan I’ve no qualms in saying we’d still be in big trouble - yet we do go down, JE had to take a big part of the blame he’s had plenty of time and a points buffer throughout.

(Obviously neither are the real culprits)..

[Dreams of 1995]

The players had thrown JDT under the bus

The reality is that none of them are fit to lace his boots. It speaks volumes of our "senior council" that they were prepared to be so blatantly lacklustre under him. Was it Callum Brittain who had a veiled dig after the Stoke game? JDT had only just left and he was ready to start the blame game

There are a number of players I'd be looking to move on if I were Eustace. I'd start with Callum Brittain and Dom Hyam who, in my view, have been quite stand out in their poor attitudes

We have lost too many big characters in recent years. What we have replaced them with are either young lads, or are just not comparable. Losing Kaminski, Ayala and Dack in one window is tragic

[Norbert Rassragr]

Lose to Wednesday and it's back on.

[wilsdenrover]

13 minutes ago, Norbert Rassragr said:

Lose to Wednesday and it's back on.

Even if Birmingham and Huddersfield also lose?

[Cuppliance]

A lot of the teams down there play each other in these last few fixtures so not all of them can win all their games. Saying that, there is a still a formula for Rovers to get relegated. Avoid defeat against Wednesday keeps us up I'd like to say. That opinion comes with us having at least 50 points on the board which will smash the highest points total for a relegated team and Birmingham City and Huddersfield Town playing each other in the penultimate game.

Not sure what result I prefer in the Plymouth Argyle vs Stoke City game yet. A draw is possibly the best outcome for us?

[lraC]

1 hour ago, Cuppliance said:

A lot of the teams down there play each other in these last few fixtures so not all of them can win all their games. Saying that, there is a still a formula for Rovers to get relegated. Avoid defeat against Wednesday keeps us up I'd like to say. That opinion comes with us having at least 50 points on the board which will smash the highest points total for a relegated team and Birmingham City and Huddersfield Town playing each other in the penultimate game.

Not sure what result I prefer in the Plymouth Argyle vs Stoke City game yet. A draw is possibly the best outcome for us?

Last time we went down we had 51 points, so that's incorrect.

I do believe we will be safe with a draw though and even more so if both Huddersfield and Brum, fail to win tomorrow.

[JHRover]

2 hours ago, Cuppliance said:

A lot of the teams down there play each other in these last few fixtures so not all of them can win all their games. Saying that, there is a still a formula for Rovers to get relegated. Avoid defeat against Wednesday keeps us up I'd like to say. That opinion comes with us having at least 50 points on the board which will smash the highest points total for a relegated team and Birmingham City and Huddersfield Town playing each other in the penultimate game.

Not sure what result I prefer in the Plymouth Argyle vs Stoke City game yet. A draw is possibly the best outcome for us?

50 points wouldn't smash the highest points total for relegation, we went down on 51 in 2017.

But yeah this year I'd like to think that 50 would probably be enough, but it would be uncertain and uncomfortable.

First off it would mean Wednesday would have to win both their last 2 games for them to have a chance of finishing above us. They've still got West Brom home and Sunderland away so unlikely.

It would mean Huddersfield would need at least 7 points from 9 against Swansea, Birmingham and Ipswich.

That would require them to take at least a point or three off Birmingham, which would mean Birmingham could reach a maximum of 52 if they won their other two against Rotherham and Norwich.

Even if those things happened you'd still have Stoke and QPR needing 4 points or more from 9 to finish above us.

So I think unlikely, but possible, and I'd much rather grab a win at home against the 2nd worst team in the league so far this season to finish it off, rather than going up against bogey side Coventry or to Leicester knowing we could still go down.

Trouble is we don't tend to deliver when the pressure or expectation is on. Away at Leeds nobody gives us a hope, no pressure or expectation. But at home, against a struggling side, most will expect a Rovers performance and win. We struggle with that.