We are going down (the pessimism thread)

[lraC]

13 minutes ago, davulsukur said:

Yeah I can't work that last bit out either. Didn't even attempt to make a last ditch effort to save it.

In the words of Toyah Wilcox It'th a mystery.

[MarkBRFC]

1 hour ago, Hasta said:

They don't need to. They only need to beat 1 of them - either a Huddersfield who were shambolic at the weekend or a resting Norwich reserves. You seriously can't see them possibly winning 1 of those 2 games?

 

They might win 1, but I don't see them winning both.

[Hasta]

26 minutes ago, MarkBRFC said:

They might win 1, but I don't see them winning both.

I never said they would. 🤔🤔

People are saying we are probably safe on 49, but we really aren't. Birmingham need to win 1 of two very winnable to go above us.

Wednesday need to win one of 2 tougher games to go above us, but after yesterday it's difficult to say that won't happen.

A point against Coventry (or Leicester) might save us but I really think if we lose both games we go down.

Edited April 22 by Hasta

[superniko]

15 minutes ago, lraC said:

I think that's why the bookmakers have us at 10/1.

It shows how far we have fallen though, hoping we can pick up a point at home to Coventry in our final home game and take it to 8 with no home wins for the new manager.

It is bound to be at the forefront of his thoughts then, so 5 at the back again this week at home.

Yeah. I've just worked out the permutations (albeit prices are subjective on the last game of the season as we don't know who has anything to play for) to show what % chance we'd get relegated if we get 1 more point to take us to 50.

If we get 1 more point, it requires all the below to occur to relegate us (as Huddersfield and Rotherham will be unable to surpass us):

Plymouth 2+ Points (50 points better GD) so either WW, WD, DW, WL, LW, DD (53% chance of 2 or more points)

Birmingham 4+ Points (50 points better GD) so either WW, WD, DW (24% chance of 4 or more points)

Wednesday 4+ Points (51 points) so either WW, WD, DW (30% chance of 4 or more points)

QPR 1+ Point (51 points) so either WW, WD, DW, WL, LW, DD, DL, LD (72% chance of 1 or more point)

Stoke 1+ Point (51 points) so either WW, WD, DW, WL, LW, DD, DL, LD (79% chance of 1 or more point)

All of the above happening I made 45/1 as the true price, so around 2% chance of relegation if we pick up 1 more point

 

If interested, I also worked out the above with Rovers getting 0 more points and I made that scenario 10/3 for us to be relegated i.e. if we get 0 more points then there is a 23% chance we'll be relegated. 

[tomphil]

I hope Broughton is making a list of head coaches capable of dragging us back at the first attempt and making maybe his one and only worthwhile contribution since turning up here the over rated lickspittle.

Because no way is this fella doing it not a chance there is very little comparison to be had with Mowbrays attempts to stay up, yes he was too conservative himself but there were enough green shoots to offer some hope.

If we do drop though he really should be 3rd out of the door behind Waggot and Eustace.

[wilsdenrover]

4 minutes ago, tomphil said:

I hope Broughton is making a list of head coaches capable of dragging us back at the first attempt and making maybe his one and only worthwhile contribution since turning up here the over rated lickspittle.

Because no way is this fella doing it not a chance there is very little comparison to be had with Mowbrays attempts to stay up, yes he was too conservative himself but there were enough green shoots to offer some hope.

If we do drop though he really should be 3rd out of the door behind Waggot and Eustace.

I’d personally go for the defenestration option.

[tomphil]

2 minutes ago, wilsdenrover said:

I’d personally go for the defenestration option.

I had to ggogle that !

[Armchair supporter supremo]

For the first time this season my gut feeling is that we are going to go down 😞

I just don't see enough quality and resolve in this squad to put up much of a fight. 

God if it wasn't for Szmodics goals we'd already have been rock bottom of the league long before now. 

With Eustace it sadly just seems we've gone back to just hiring yes men managers/coaches

[bluebruce]

2 hours ago, superniko said:

If interested, I also worked out the above with Rovers getting 0 more points and I made that scenario 10/3 for us to be relegated i.e. if we get 0 more points then there is a 23% chance we'll be relegated. 

Funnily enough, without checking any of the odds of the required or doing any actual maths, I'm in the match thread after Sunday saying I think we have about a 20% chance of going down if we don't get any more points (told my mum the other day I reckoned it was 20-30%). My instinct and your method seem roughly aligned.

Edited April 22 by bluebruce

[superniko]

1 minute ago, bluebruce said:

Funnily enough, without checking any of the odds of the required or doing any actual maths, I'm in the match thread after Sunday saying I think we have about a 20% chance of going down with no more points (told my mum the other day I reckoned it was 20-30%). My instinct and your method seem roughly aligned.

I think looking at with our pessimistic Rovers head on we’d always think it’s more likely. Will be the same for all fans of clubs down there. 

Edited April 22 by superniko

[booth]

17 hours ago, Hasta said:

They weren’t.

What I'd give for 13th place right now.

Waggott, one of the worst CEO's to disgrace football.

[bluebruce]

9 minutes ago, superniko said:

I think looking at with our pessimistic Rovers head on we’d always think it’s more likely. Will be the same for all fans of clubs down there. 

I don't really see it as a pessimistic outlook. A 1 in 5 ish chance of going down if we don't get any more points has me feeling fairly relaxed. Not out of the woods yet though, but I kinda fancy us to get a point against an after-the-lord-mayor's-show Coventry. If Leicester manage to wrap up their promotion before they play us, a point against them might become a lot easier too. I actually think we'll be fine, after knowing since January it was going to become a relegation fight. But I do think we'll be leaving it til the final day, as we never do things the easy, non-squeaky-bum way.

[Armchair supporter supremo]

1 hour ago, booth said:

What I'd give for 13th place right now.

Waggott, one of the worst CEO's to disgrace football.

He makes Derrick Slugchops seem legit! 

[tugayislegend]

4 hours ago, superniko said:

Yeah. I've just worked out the permutations (albeit prices are subjective on the last game of the season as we don't know who has anything to play for) to show what % chance we'd get relegated if we get 1 more point to take us to 50.

If we get 1 more point, it requires all the below to occur to relegate us (as Huddersfield and Rotherham will be unable to surpass us):

Plymouth 2+ Points (50 points better GD) so either WW, WD, DW, WL, LW, DD (53% chance of 2 or more points)

Birmingham 4+ Points (50 points better GD) so either WW, WD, DW (24% chance of 4 or more points)

Wednesday 4+ Points (51 points) so either WW, WD, DW (30% chance of 4 or more points)

QPR 1+ Point (51 points) so either WW, WD, DW, WL, LW, DD, DL, LD (72% chance of 1 or more point)

Stoke 1+ Point (51 points) so either WW, WD, DW, WL, LW, DD, DL, LD (79% chance of 1 or more point)

All of the above happening I made 45/1 as the true price, so around 2% chance of relegation if we pick up 1 more point

 

If interested, I also worked out the above with Rovers getting 0 more points and I made that scenario 10/3 for us to be relegated i.e. if we get 0 more points then there is a 23% chance we'll be relegated. 

Good mathematics working that out. However if we factor in at this stage of season teams fighting for their lives will pull off freak results, I would guesstimate we have a 40 - 60% chance of being relegated if we don't pick up any points.

[superniko]

4 minutes ago, tugayislegend said:

Good mathematics working that out. However if we factor in at this stage of season teams fighting for their lives will pull off freak results, I would guesstimate we have a 40 - 60% chance of being relegated if we don't pick up any points.

I did factor that into my pricing of the final matches to be fair, felt I was generous to our rivals e.g. Plymouth favourites vs Hull, Wednesday favourites away at Sunderland, all things that wouldn't be the case if played on any other match-week. So the 23% if we get no more points does take all that into account.

For this weekend coming up we already have prices released so that's simple. If I go more aggressive/generous for our rivals on the final weekend I still can only get it to 30% chance (that's with Wednesday, Plymouth, Birmingham all going off shorter than 11/8 favourites which is unlikely.

[tugayislegend]

8 minutes ago, superniko said:

I did factor that into my pricing of the final matches to be fair, felt I was generous to our rivals e.g. Plymouth favourites vs Hull, Wednesday favourites away at Sunderland, all things that wouldn't be the case if played on any other match-week. So the 23% if we get no more points does take all that into account.

For this weekend coming up we already have prices released so that's simple. If I go more aggressive/generous for our rivals on the final weekend I still can only get it to 30% chance (that's with Wednesday, Plymouth, Birmingham all going off shorter than 11/8 favourites which is unlikely.

Nice !

Didn't realise you had done that.

I feel less pessimistic now then after reading that.

 

[martonrover]

6 hours ago, lraC said:

I have now watched it (couldn't bring myself to yesterday) and oh my goodness.

Apparently there are people suggesting there is something suspicious about it on social media. I am not too sure myself, although he didn't seem to attempt to save it, after the error.

I think it’s too farcical to be suspicious.

That clip will entertain people around the Globe.

I think he just went into a complete panic and froze.

Impressive spin he got on the ball. Nathan Lyon would’ve been happy with it.

[booth]

1 hour ago, Armchair supporter supremo said:

He makes Derrick Slugchops seem legit! 

Proof that Venkys can always plumb new depths.

[Tricky]

10/1 still on us to go down, anyone on?

[Exiled_Rover]

20 hours ago, tomphil said:

I hope Broughton is making a list of head coaches capable of dragging us back at the first attempt and making maybe his one and only worthwhile contribution since turning up here the over rated lickspittle.

Because no way is this fella doing it not a chance there is very little comparison to be had with Mowbrays attempts to stay up, yes he was too conservative himself but there were enough green shoots to offer some hope.

If we do drop though he really should be 3rd out of the door behind Waggot and Eustace.

I actually think Eustace has been fine - he's also showing what a fantastic job JDT was doing with this group of players.

You simply cannot game plan for players throwing the ball into their own net twice (Pears against Sheffield Wednesday, Hyam against Bristol City). 

[tomphil]

44 minutes ago, Exiled_Rover said:

I actually think Eustace has been fine - he's also showing what a fantastic job JDT was doing with this group of players.

You simply cannot game plan for players throwing the ball into their own net twice (Pears against Sheffield Wednesday, Hyam against Bristol City). 

I see nothing in him or his style that would give us a real chance of bouncing straight back his football would only prosper in league one if he can bring in a couple of bruisers at the back and a couple of strikers.

I'm still mixed in opinion on his actual impact since taking over as although he made strides tightening up there are half a dozen games where we can justifiably say we should have have been displaying a clear 'must win' attitude but didn't.

If we do survive it's going to be by the skin of or teeth rather than some heroic rescue act by him but yes the problems run deeper as we say on Sunday.

[Hasta]

3 hours ago, Tricky said:

10/1 still on us to go down, anyone on?

I think it’s waaay too big. We could be in the bottom 3 by teatime on Saturday.

Having said that, if we draw and Huddersfield win then we are safe.

Its a funny old game.

Edited April 23 by Hasta

[Ianrally]

6 hours ago, Tricky said:

10/1 still on us to go down, anyone on?

I never ever win anything either a bet or lottery or raffle. On that basis I've put £10 on Rovers to get relegated in the sincere hope my bad luck continues.

[danger19_80]

8 hours ago, Hasta said:

I think it’s waaay too big. We could be in the bottom 3 by teatime on Saturday.

Having said that, if we draw and Huddersfield win then we are safe.

Its a funny old game.

Of all the possible results involving the other teams this weekend, Birmingham beating Hudds looks to be the most potentially disastrous (unless we win.)

Edited April 23 by danger19_80

[Tom]

Leicester winning 5-0 tonight meaning if they win on Monday at Preston they are promoted which may make the final game slightly kinder

Edit - if they beat Preston then a point against us guarantees (not mathematically excluding a 15 goal swing) they are champions assuming Ipswich take maximum points in their games 

Maybe we just make a gentlemen’s agreement like we did with United at Ewood that it would be lovely to draw 

Edited April 23 by Tom