We are going down (the pessimism thread)

[K-Hod]

You just know PNE will turn into Brazil 1970 against Leicester….

[SBlue]

Either way they put 5+ past us. No pressure but a big prize on the line, or if they're really going for it.

It'll be like watching the Harlem Bloody Globetrotters.

I really think our goose is cooked.

[danger19_80]

Well the bookies seem quite confident...

[DE.]

Honestly amazing what Rohl has done at Sheffield Wednesday. They'd only won a single match all season before beating our lot on December 2nd. They've gained 40 points since then. We've managed 22. 

[joey_big_nose]

We should just survive but Id love to know how many teams showing our form over the latter half of a season have stayed up the next year. Must be tiny.

(If you extrapolate that last 50% of gaes over a full season its around 37 points.....)

Im very much a glass half full person but it's very hard to not conclude we are done.

[wilsdenrover]

6 minutes ago, joey_big_nose said:

We should just survive but Id love to know how many teams showing our form over the latter half of a season have stayed up the next year. Must be tiny.

(If you extrapolate that last 50% of gaes over a full season its around 37 points.....)

Im very much a glass half full person but it's very hard to not conclude we are done.

In the second half of the season we have 19 points (obviously with one to play)

Last year QPR stayed up despite only getting 16 points from the last 23 games

The year before Reading stayed up having got 20 points

The year before that Bristol City stayed up having got 18 points

I haven’t looked any further back but it would appear to be a surprisingly regular occurrence.

 

 

 

[DE.]

If we sell Sammie and continue to shop around the bargain basement then we're doing a Rotherham next season. Will be brutal. Venky's have been fortunate to have somebody step up each time a top goalscorer has left - Graham > Arma > BBD > Szmodics. Nobody from this squad is stepping up next season - I'm sure of that - and based on the dross our recruitment team has signed for the forward position on little-to-no budget I do not foresee a rabbit being pulled out of the hat by Broughton and co. 

So our only hope would be having some money available to invest in the team. If there's a small amount available and the recruitment team do better than identifying the likes of Leo for £800k type fees then maybe we scrape another season. Or maybe we don't. Ultimately the only way we genuinely progress is for Venky's to sell up, which seems like a distant dream at this point. 

[scotchrover]

24 minutes ago, DE. said:

If we sell Sammie and continue to shop around the bargain basement then we're doing a Rotherham next season. Will be brutal. Venky's have been fortunate to have somebody step up each time a top goalscorer has left - Graham > Arma > BBD > Szmodics. Nobody from this squad is stepping up next season - I'm sure of that - and based on the dross our recruitment team has signed for the forward position on little-to-no budget I do not foresee a rabbit being pulled out of the hat by Broughton and co. 

So our only hope would be having some money available to invest in the team. If there's a small amount available and the recruitment team do better than identifying the likes of Leo for £800k type fees then maybe we scrape another season. Or maybe we don't. Ultimately the only way we genuinely progress is for Venky's to sell up, which seems like a distant dream at this point. 

The Armstrong and Wharton money needs investing. We must be well within the limits of FFP having spent about 20p during the last few seasons.  Failure to invest is seeing us dropping into League 2. This squad isn’t good enough for the Championship, as it stands. 

[DE.]

4 minutes ago, scotchrover said:

The Armstrong and Wharton money needs investing. We must be well within the limits of FFP having spent about 20p during the last few seasons.  Failure to invest is seeing us dropping into League 2. This squad isn’t good enough for the Championship, as it stands. 

Agreed, if Sammie hadn't had a once in a career season we'd already be relegated. Probably not too long after Rotherham. 

[joey_big_nose]

37 minutes ago, wilsdenrover said:

In the second half of the season we have 19 points (obviously with one to play)

Last year QPR stayed up despite only getting 16 points from the last 23 games

The year before Reading stayed up having got 20 points

The year before that Bristol City stayed up having got 18 points

I haven’t looked any further back but it would appear to be a surprisingly regular occurrence.

 

 

 

This is the kind of research that I come to BRFCS for. Strong work! Thank you.

[alcd]

12 minutes ago, scotchrover said:

The Armstrong and Wharton money needs investing. We must be well within the limits of FFP having spent about 20p during the last few seasons.  Failure to invest is seeing us dropping into League 2. This squad isn’t good enough for the Championship, as it stands. 

The club makes an annyal operating loss of about £20m before transfers. Without funding from India the transfer income is paying the wages. 

[Herbie6590]

I’m still standing by this…😳

[Upside Down]

Just putting my tinfoil hat on for a moment.

I have a feeling that someone in India has looked at the numbers and decided a league one club or lower will be cheaper than a championship one. The initial loss of 10million will be offset by the fire sale in the summer and after that the losses will be affordable for venkys.

This relegation is 100% deliberate. This is the second time they've done this.

[AllRoverAsia]

2 hours ago, wilsdenrover said:

In the second half of the season we have 19 points (obviously with one to play)

Last year QPR stayed up despite only getting 16 points from the last 23 games

The year before Reading stayed up having got 20 points

The year before that Bristol City stayed up having got 18 points

I haven’t looked any further back but it would appear to be a surprisingly regular occurrence.

 

 

 

Summary:

1. We stay up due to the points earned early on by JDT before he threw his toys out of the pram and the players, led by the crybabies Wharton, Brittain and Hyam went on strike.

2. Eustace would relegate us over a full season.

3. JDT smiles. He thwarted the Waggott led relegation drive.

Edited April 27 by AllRoverAsia

[Upside Down]

32 minutes ago, AllRoverAsia said:

Summary:

1. We stay up due to the points earned early on by JDT before he threw his toys out of the pram and the players, led by the crybabies Wharton, Brittain and Hyam went on strike.

2. Eustace would relegate us over a full season.

3. JDT smiles. He thwarted the Waggott VENKYS led relegation drive.

 

[JHRover]

3 hours ago, DE. said:

 

So our only hope would be having some money available to invest in the team. If there's a small amount available and the recruitment team do better than identifying the likes of Leo for £800k type fees then maybe we scrape another season. Or maybe we don't. Ultimately the only way we genuinely progress is for Venky's to sell up, which seems like a distant dream at this point. 

Don't you know we've got the lifts in the BBE to repair this summer?

[JHRover]

2 hours ago, alcd said:

The club makes an annyal operating loss of about £20m before transfers. Without funding from India the transfer income is paying the wages. 

The question is why.

Nobody else makes this loss to exist in the Championship.

So why do Rovers???

When we have the answer to that we can't get any further.

[bluebruce]

3 hours ago, DE. said:

If we sell Sammie and continue to shop around the bargain basement then we're doing a Rotherham next season. Will be brutal. Venky's have been fortunate to have somebody step up each time a top goalscorer has left - Graham > Arma > BBD > Szmodics. Nobody from this squad is stepping up next season - I'm sure of that -

You can feel sure of that, but you can't actually be sure of that. We have said this after all of the departures you mentioned, and yet somebody always has. You do feel like eventually that luck has to run out though.

[bluebruce]

2 hours ago, Herbie6590 said:

I’m still standing by this…😳

I'm still standing by what I've been saying for about 3 weeks I think. We'll scrape up by the skin of our balls, primarily because other teams around us suck, and go down next season.

We might enter the bottom 3 briefly on the final day, but I don't see it very likely we go down. Only need one of three shit teams to fuck up. Two of them need at least a win, too. Those same two have LL and DD results from their previous two games.

Edited April 28 by bluebruce

[Ghost7]

18 minutes ago, bluebruce said:

I'm still standing by what I've been saying for about 3 weeks I think. We'll scrape up by the skin of our balls, primarily because other teams around us suck, and go down next season.

We might enter the bottom 3 briefly on the final day, but I don't see it very likely we go down. Only need one of three shit teams to fuck up. Two of them need at least a win, too. Those same two have LL and DD results from their previous two games.

 

All are due a win then 🙂

It can happen.

[wilsdenrover]

6 hours ago, JHRover said:

Don't you know we've got the lifts in the BBE to repair this summer?

They’ll keep the money to one side until the transfer window closes then decide it’s fine just to use the stairs instead.

[wilsdenrover]

6 hours ago, JHRover said:

The question is why.

Nobody else makes this loss to exist in the Championship.

So why do Rovers???

When we have the answer to that we can't get any further.

I can’t find more up to date figures but in:

2019/2020 championship clubs lost £443m (an average of £18.45m)

2020/2021 they lost £400m (£16.6m)

Clearly that doesn’t show ‘who lost what’ but it does seem to indicate our losses aren’t out of the ordinary for the division.

Of course we all know our losses could have been much lower if our senior management/owners weren’t so incompetent.

 

Edited April 28 by wilsdenrover

[wilsdenrover]

5 hours ago, bluebruce said:

I'm still standing by what I've been saying for about 3 weeks I think. We'll scrape up by the skin of our balls, primarily because other teams around us suck, and go down next season.

We might enter the bottom 3 briefly on the final day, but I don't see it very likely we go down. Only need one of three shit teams to fuck up. Two of them need at least a win, too. Those same two have LL and DD results from their previous two games.

Sammie’s balls, the rest don’t have any.

[Tom]

We think we are going down because we are Rovers fans and in synch with how bad we are.

Plymouth and Birmingham fans will be thinking the same thing I think only Sheffield Wednesday fans will be confident. 
 

We expect Plymouth and Birmingham to win and whilst they have home advantage they aren’t easy games and haven’t been winning for a reason, they’ll look at us and think it’s not impossible for a point against a team in celebration mode. There’s also the possibility that if Leicester draw tomorrow and Ipswich win their game in hand then they need a point to confirm the title and we need a point to survive. 
 

From the outside I’d not expect blood and thunder if that was the scenario, similar to United at Ewood 15 years or so back.

The other factor is we can survive by losing, non of us expect Sunderland to beat Wednesday but it’s not inconceivable.

The odds are in our favour - so why do I still expect us to be relegated?

[Giant]

History is full of irony, BRFC has a great history. We missed the playoffs on goal difference in 2023, if we go down in 2024 it will be on goal difference. Also the Norwich manager has a history of playing a weakened team, when he was at Huddersfield, to our disadvantage in 2017. I’ve no doubt he will do the same at Birmingham now that his team are definitely in the playoffs. Our only hope is Hull getting something at Plymouth. The omens aren’t good.