We are going down (the pessimism thread)

[superniko]

1 hour ago, roversfan99 said:

The issue is that all of those permutations are not equally likely so I suspect our chances are certainly higher than 2 in 81, although still a long shot.

For example, us losing at Leicester is 90-95% likely id say. Sheffield Wedneday getting a point at Sunderland is over 50% likely I think as well. Its the other 2 games that bring the probability right down.

Probability of each individual permutation below. 4.4% chance of relegation. 
You’re saying it’s 1/20 for Leicester to beat us (95% chance) when they’re actually about 8/13 (62% chance)

But you are correct that the likelihood of relegation (4.4%) is higher than the 2 in 81 if all results were equally likely.

Edited April 29, 2024 by superniko

[J*B]

12 minutes ago, superniko said:

Probability of each individual permutation below. 4.4% chance of relegation. 
You’re saying it’s 1/20 for Leicester to beat us (95% chance) when they’re actually about 8/13 (62% chance)

But you are correct that the likelihood of relegation (4.4%) is higher than the 2 in 81 if all results were equally likely.

Superb work!

[rog of the rovers]

Some subplots to file under ''Well I didn't see that coming.''

Bradley Dack winner for Sunderland against Sheffield Wednesday

Tyler Morton/Ryan Giles winner for Hull against Plymouth

Inspired performance from Grant Hanley and/or Danny Batth keeps Blues at bay

and dare I even think it....

Ashley Barnes or Shane Duffy winner for Norwich against Birmingham.

[arbitro]

2 minutes ago, rog of the rovers said:

Some subplots to file under ''Well I didn't see that coming.''

Bradley Dack winner for Sunderland against Sheffield Wednesday

Tyler Morton/Ryan Giles winner for Hull against Plymouth

Inspired performance from Grant Hanley and/or Danny Batth keeps Blues at bay

and dare I even think it....

Ashley Barnes or Shane Duffy winner for Norwich against Birmingham.

Ash Phillips own goal.

[Groundhog]

39 minutes ago, rog of the rovers said:

Some subplots to file under ''Well I didn't see that coming.''

Bradley Dack winner for Sunderland against Sheffield Wednesday

Tyler Morton/Ryan Giles winner for Hull against Plymouth

Inspired performance from Grant Hanley and/or Danny Batth keeps Blues at bay

and dare I even think it....

Ashley Barnes or Shane Duffy winner for Norwich against Birmingham.

Birmingham needing a win to send us down, I wouldn't put it past Barnes smashing into his own net. 

[broadsword]

Whilst I do think we'll stay up now, I can't see anything other than relegation next year. And next year, I don't think it will go down to the last day

[Trinidad Rover]

5 minutes ago, broadsword said:

Whilst I do think we'll stay up now, I can't see anything other than relegation next year. And next year, I don't think it will go down to the last day

Absolutely.

I think we will stay up this season due to results from below us, not through our own actions.

We all know there will be zero investment in the summer and Szmodics will be sold, leaving us even worse than this year. And that is without a decent half season under JDT.

Roll up to buy your season tickets folks!!

[alcd]

2 hours ago, rog of the rovers said:

Some subplots to file under ''Well I didn't see that coming.''

Bradley Dack winner for Sunderland against Sheffield Wednesday

Tyler Morton/Ryan Giles winner for Hull against Plymouth

Inspired performance from Grant Hanley and/or Danny Batth keeps Blues at bay

and dare I even think it....

Ashley Barnes or Shane Duffy winner for Norwich against Birmingham.

Barnes went off injured in last match so probably not available. 

[Herbie6590]

Just chatting this through with @rog of the rovers to establish my coping strategy…

I’m discounting Rovers & Wednesday…so 100% Rovers lose, 100% Wednesday don’t.

This strips it down to 9 scenarios involving just Plymouth & Birmingham.

Only 1 of those 9 sends Rovers down - both to win. 

I fancy at least one upset…but I’m pinning my hopes on there not being two. I do expect us to drop into the bottom three during Saturday afternoon, if only because that’s what Rovers do to us…

If I had to back a horse to stay up…I’d probably go with Plymouth to get something & remain above Birmingham. 

You may use this in evidence against me at 2:30pm on Saturday…😳

[wilsdenrover]

7 minutes ago, Herbie6590 said:

Just chatting this through with @rog of the rovers to establish my coping strategy…

I’m discounting Rovers & Wednesday…so 100% Rovers lose, 100% Wednesday don’t.

This strips it down to 9 scenarios involving just Plymouth & Birmingham.

Only 1 of those 9 sends Rovers down - both to win. 

I fancy at least one upset…but I’m pinning my hopes on there not being two. I do expect us to drop into the bottom three during Saturday afternoon, if only because that’s what Rovers do to us…

If I had to back a horse to stay up…I’d probably go with Plymouth to get something & remain above Birmingham. 

You may use this in evidence against me at 2:30pm on Saturday…😳

Have you considered drinking from breakfast time?

[arbitro]

15 minutes ago, wilsdenrover said:

Have you considered drinking from breakfast time?

On Friday?

[wilsdenrover]

10 minutes ago, arbitro said:

On Friday?

Why wait ‘til then 😄🍺

[Dreams of 1995]

5 hours ago, superniko said:

Probability of each individual permutation below. 4.4% chance of relegation. 
You’re saying it’s 1/20 for Leicester to beat us (95% chance) when they’re actually about 8/13 (62% chance)

But you are correct that the likelihood of relegation (4.4%) is higher than the 2 in 81 if all results were equally likely.

The kind of posting I’m here for 

Love it 😂

[Herbie6590]

16 minutes ago, wilsdenrover said:

Why wait ‘til then 😄🍺

 

[wilsdenrover]

18 minutes ago, Herbie6590 said:

 

You at 12:29 on Saturday…

 

[Upside Down]

8 hours ago, rog of the rovers said:

If my maths are correct (see GCSE level- Raise 3 to the Power of 4 or 3^4 ) there are 81 different combinations of possibilities for Rovers, Sheffield Wednesday, Plymouth and Birmingham.

Only 2/81 would see Rovers relegated.

1. Rovers loss, Sheffield Wednesday win, Plymouth win and Birmingham win

2. Rovers loss, Sheffield Wednesday draw, Plymouth win and Birmingham win

 

Any other combination sees us safe to fight on in the Championship next season.

That is a highly likely outcome as the other teams will be fighting for their place.

We know our soft lads won't.

[Silas]

6 hours ago, superniko said:

robability of each individual permutation below. 4.4% chance of relegation

That actually scares me because it's almost bang on the poker odds for a 2 outer on the river (4.35%)

And the amount of times I'm sitting with aces looking at 3's......

[Upside Down]

1 hour ago, arbitro said:

On Friday?

You'd need to make it last Friday.

[RTM08]

As much as I want Birmingham down, I think it's the Plymouth game we need to keep the biggest eye on as I think it's the one most likely to go in our favour. Rovers are more than likely going to get absolutely shafted, so we need one of the other results to go our way. 

Fingers crossed - at least we're not in a position like last time where we pulled off a great win at Brentford for it not to matter.

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

8 minutes ago, RTM08 said:

As much as I want Birmingham down, I think it's the Plymouth game we need to keep the biggest eye on as I think it's the one most likely to go in our favour. Rovers are more than likely going to get absolutely shafted, so we need one of the other results to go our way. 

Fingers crossed - at least we're not in a position like last time where we pulled off a great win at Brentford for it not to matter.

Or like last year at Millwall.

[Tom]

Would anyone swap our scenario with Plymouth or Birmingham?

I know I wouldn’t

[oldjamfan1]

8 hours ago, Tom said:

Would anyone swap our scenario with Plymouth or Birmingham?

I know I wouldn’t

Exactly this. If we were at home to either Hull or Norwich and the team we were looking to catch had a game against the team that were already crowned champions we would all be backing that team to pick something up and us to lose or draw. Bookies rarely get it that badly wrong.

[Lucimo]

1 hour ago, oldjamfan1 said:

Exactly this. If we were at home to either Hull or Norwich and the team we were looking to catch had a game against the team that were already crowned champions we would all be backing that team to pick something up and us to lose or draw. Bookies rarely get it that badly wrong.

But they do occasionally 😵‍💫. Leicester to win the prem 5000/1, Brereton Diaz to score 20 goals 1000/1. Rovers to go down at only 18/1. Its worrying times.

[oldjamfan1]

28 minutes ago, Lucimo said:

But they do occasionally 😵‍💫. Leicester to win the prem 5000/1, Brereton Diaz to score 20 goals 1000/1. Rovers to go down at only 18/1. Its worrying times.

Stick your savings on it then

[superniko]

It's not bookies getting it wrong necessarily, statistically 18/1 (~23/1 without bookmaker margin) still has a 4%-5% chance of happening. It isn't 'that' unlikely.

Leicester was a freak result, Diaz was priced incorrectly and was wrong.

Swags season ticket sales could be at a record high in League 1 if everyone has £20 on it 😄 (might have to be £25 with his pricing structure!)