We are going down (the pessimism thread)

[dingles staying down 4ever]

People can look at stats but it is still no wins for Eustace. The only win being Johnson's since he started. Will picking up draws be enough?

[MarkBRFC]

5 minutes ago, dingles staying down 4ever said:

People can look at stats but it is still no wins for Eustace. The only win being Johnson's since he started. Will picking up draws be enough?

I think one win and a few more draws does it.

The sides below us are garbage and wont be winning many more between now and end of the season, they have all had there purple patches a few weeks ago and we're still above them all.

No chance we go down this season.

Edited March 17, 2024 by MarkBRFC

[47er]

1 minute ago, MarkBRFC said:

I think one win and a few more draws does it.

The sides below us are garbage and wont be winning many more between now and end of the season, they have all had there purple patches a few weeks ago and we're still above them all.

No chance we go down this season.

Please don't!!

[martonrover]

3 hours ago, MarkBRFC said:

I think one win and a few more draws does it.

The sides below us are garbage and wont be winning many more between now and end of the season, they have all had there purple patches a few weeks ago and we're still above them all.

No chance we go down this season.

This is supposed to be the pessimism thread 😉

Stating “no chance we go down this season” is beyond optimistic.

[MarkBRFC]

35 minutes ago, martonrover said:

This is supposed to be the pessimism thread 😉

Stating “no chance we go down this season” is beyond optimistic.

Suppose it is 😁

I just think the sheer amount of sides between us and 22nd will save us. They won't all start winning every week.

Think 6 more points does us.

[broadsword]

That's six more draws then because we aren't winning are we?

 

Two wins in twenty now. If we don't win between now and the end of the season but somehow manage to stay up, then Sammie leaves, well start next season on a real low

[Upside Down]

18 hours ago, MarkBRFC said:

I think one win and a few more draws does it.

The sides below us are garbage and wont be winning many more between now and end of the season, they have all had there purple patches a few weeks ago and we're still above them all.

No chance we go down this season.

Fuck me that's a bold statement.

[philipl]

We certainly can go down this season.

Our run in looks the most challenging on paper.

That is different from expecting us to go down.

 

In the end,, we will be incredibly grateful for the much derided draws is my expectation.

[philipl]

Our next 4 games are

Ipswich h

Sunderland a

Southampton h

Bristol city a

 

We could easily lose all 4 in a good season. If we do that this season we will be looking at Coventry and Sheffield Wednesday at home and Leeds and Leicester away from a relegation place.

Realistically we need a win at either Bristol or Sunderland.

[JHRover]

Sunderland and Bristol both mid table sides going nowhere and in dodgy form. Some would say better having them than relegation rivals battling for their lives.

But when you've won 2 in 20 you have serious issues and cannot be confident of a win anywhere.

[47er]

Somehow we have to win 2 games. If we do, draws will get us over the line.

Our scoring needs to pick up for this to happen. But how? Wharton from direct corners?

[MarkBRFC]

5 hours ago, Upside Down said:

Fuck me that's a bold statement.

I mean I could be wrong obviously!

If there was just one or two teams between us and the relegation zone I wouldn't be as confident at all, because I don't think we're very good. 

But the fact there are 5 teams between us dropping in there, we also have a 3pt buffer and a better GD than all but one of the teams below us. They are all in rotten form too.

I just don't see them all suddenly starting to put a few wins together, I fully believe that we could end up drawing our way to safety and ending the season with 2 wins from 28.

Would be nice to get at least one win though!

Edited March 18, 2024 by MarkBRFC

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

We’re going to have to get two wins from somewhere.

[AllRoverAsia]

We have 42 points now.

Over the previous 10 seasons 42 points would mean safety in 6 of those seasons.

The above is what happened after any penalty points were applied.

However, and to clarify, if NO penalty points had applied over those 10 seasons then 42 points meant safety 5 times out of 10.

46 points would mean safety 7 out of 10 times. In the other 3 you needed a max of 52 to ensure safety.

GD has been ignored.

So, we may be safe already or we may not.

I have no fecking idea.

BUT surely we can get at least 4 more points from the remaining games to increase our chances of staying up, or rather of postponing our relegation at least for another season.

[AllRoverAsia]

6 hours ago, philipl said:

We certainly can go down this season.

Our run in looks the most challenging on paper.

That is different from expecting us to go down.

 

In the end,, we will be incredibly grateful for the much derided draws is my expectation.

But not quite as much as the wins under JDT and the 1:win under Johnson.

Unless JE improves his win ratio .....

BUT every single point that we do gain makes the task of the teams below us more difficult.

Edited March 18, 2024 by AllRoverAsia

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

3 minutes ago, AllRoverAsia said:

But not quite as much as the wins under JDT and the 1:win under Johnson.

Unless JE improves his win ratio .....

BUT every single point that we do gain makes the task of the teams below us more difficult.

And we have to try and keep the GD as good as we can. It’s worth a point at the moment.

[AllRoverAsia]

3 minutes ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

And we have to try and keep the GD as good as we can. It’s worth a point at the moment.

Yes, if we lose to the top four make sure it's not by too many.

I think we can take a point of Soton but not Ipswich, Leeds or Leicester as it's going all the way at the very top.

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

35 minutes ago, AllRoverAsia said:

Yes, if we lose to the top four make sure it's not by too many.

I think we can take a point of Soton but not Ipswich, Leeds or Leicester as it's going all the way at the very top.

Anything can happen a game of football. Look at yesterday’s game. Liverpool had enough chances to win two games. Any one of our opponents could get a red card.and we’re well in with a chance. I’m expecting us to do better against teams who come for a win and don’t park the bus.

I never went into a game thinking my team was going to lose. Plenty of times I was wrong but at 3-00 pm I could always paint a picture were we’d win.

Edited March 18, 2024 by Tyrone Shoelaces

[philipl]

Updating my extrapolations of current form and narrowing it down to Millwall downwards assuming everyone else is safe.

Last 5 games pro rated plus an added 3 points for playing Rotherham.

Millwall 63 points

QPR 54 points

Sheffield Wednesday 53 points

Stoke 51 points

Plymouth 51 points

Rovers 49 points

Huddersfield 47 points

Birmingham 44 points

So compared with the last time I did this we climb one place to safety.

 

But in the run in, games against fellow strugglers and Rotherham are:

Millwall 3

Rovers 1

Plymouth 4

Stoke 3

QPR 3

Birmingham 3

Huddersfield 3

Sheffield Wednesday 3

 

And games against the 9 clubs in the play-off and promotion shake down (Preston upwards based on the game in hand)

Millwall 2

Rovers 5

Plymouth 2

Stoke 3

QPR 3 (last 3 games)

Sheffield Wednesday 3

Birmingham 3

Huddersfield 3

Sheffield Wednesday 2

[Upside Down]

Whether or not we go down this season, we will be relegated next season.

[Blue blood]

11 hours ago, MarkBRFC said:

I mean I could be wrong obviously!

If there was just one or two teams between us and the relegation zone I wouldn't be as confident at all, because I don't think we're very good. 

But the fact there are 5 teams between us dropping in there, we also have a 3pt buffer and a better GD than all but one of the teams below us. They are all in rotten form too.

I just don't see them all suddenly starting to put a few wins together, I fully believe that we could end up drawing our way to safety and ending the season with 2 wins from 28.

Would be nice to get at least one win though!

Agree with the rationale although no chance is pushing it. We had a round of fixtures where practically everyone bar us in the relegation  race won. Another of those and we are in a sticky situation. 3 point gap with 2 wins in 20 doesn't isn't the type of odds I'd be risking much on. 

That said I agree there's too many teams who need to do better than us, and I likewise cant see the doing it. Imagine 4  points from draws is feasible and realistic meaning those in the bottom 3 need to get 8 points to overtake us. Not sure that they will happen. 

Also some teams look very ropey at the moment. Brum, Plymouth, Stoke whilst Sheff Weds have been battered at the weekend. Doubt any of them are confident of getting many more points.

[rovers11]

Brum appoint Rowett until the end of the season. That probably sees them safe. Sad to see Mowbray out of the game with what is likely to be a serious illness. Hope he gets well soon. 

Sheff W, Hudds, Stoke, QPR, Plymouth and us are all more likely to go down now than Brum.

Personally, I think we will go down with Huddersfield or Plymouth. If Plymouth change their manager then they will probably stay up. Our inability to win a game will see us relegated. 

Edited March 19, 2024 by rovers11

[broadsword]

3 minutes ago, rovers11 said:

Brum appoint Rowett until the end of the season. That probably sees them safe. Sad to see Mowbray out of the game with what is likely to be a serious illness. Hope he gets well soon. 

Sheff W, Hudds, Stoke, QPR, Plymouth and us are all more likely to go down now than Brum.

Personally, I think we will go down with Huddersfield or Plymouth. If Plymouth change their manager then they will probably stay up. Our inability to win a game will see us relegated. 

Maybe warnock to Plymouth or Huddersfield?

[rovers11]

3 minutes ago, broadsword said:

Maybe warnock to Plymouth or Huddersfield?

Hudds have only appointed their new manager recently so they'll prob give him more time. A draw against Rotherham when you desperately need the points is shocking though, so maybe they will get rid.

I think Plymouth will get rid of their manager as he's useless. It wouldn't surprise me if Warnock goes there and he keeps them up.

[Blue blood]

1 hour ago, rovers11 said:

Brum appoint Rowett until the end of the season. That probably sees them safe. Sad to see Mowbray out of the game with what is likely to be a serious illness. Hope he gets well soon. 

Sheff W, Hudds, Stoke, QPR, Plymouth and us are all more likely to go down now than Brum.

Personally, I think we will go down with Huddersfield or Plymouth. If Plymouth change their manager then they will probably stay up. Our inability to win a game will see us relegated. 

Thats a blow. Had Brum as one of the teams likely to save us. Rowett is good, look at how clubs have done when he has left. 

Huddersfield I feel have experience of.fighting the drop. They haven't had many seasons when they aren't fighting for something, positive or negative. Rotherham game was a blow for them but feel they will scrap and survive. 

Plymouth really seem to be struggling and the manager is floundering. Sheff Weds I feel are spent. Stoke haven't made it work with anyone. So still a few candidates more likely for the drop. QPR I feel are on the up with their manager performing solidly since he arrived. likewise Millwall probably have enough new manager bounce to stay up, and not enough games for Harris to stagnate. 

All that said a few injuries or bits of bad luck and Millwall, Brum and QPR could still go down. They aren't out of the woods and a bit of misfortune could do us a massive favour.