We are going down (the pessimism thread)

[JHRover]

I think it will be us and Huddersfield to join Rotherham in League One.

Wednesday have proven that they have that fighting spirit and ability to win games when the pressure is on. I am dreading our match against them.

Birmingham are poor but in Rowett have a shrewd operator who should have enough to get a win or two from their relatively kind remaining fixtures (Rotherham and Huddersfield to come).

Forget about Millwall, QPR and Stoke, they'll be fine.

Plymouth a maybe but have two opportunities coming up in Stoke and Millwall both away.

[Ghost7]

Agree, it's Rovers and Huddersfield. We've ran out of "kind" games.

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

What are the bookies saying now ? Just asking for a friend.

[Ewood Ace]

6 minutes ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

What are the bookies saying now ? Just asking for a friend.

5/1 this morning when I went in to put my bets on the Masters.

[Waggy76]

5 hours ago, JHRover said:

I think it will be us and Huddersfield to join Rotherham in League One.

Wednesday have proven that they have that fighting spirit and ability to win games when the pressure is on. I am dreading our match against them.

Birmingham are poor but in Rowett have a shrewd operator who should have enough to get a win or two from their relatively kind remaining fixtures (Rotherham and Huddersfield to come).

Forget about Millwall, QPR and Stoke, they'll be fine.

Plymouth a maybe but have two opportunities coming up in Stoke and Millwall both away.

I am going for Huddersfield and Plymouth to join Rotherham ..

I agree with you about Rowett .

Edited April 11 by Waggy76

[Blue blood]

5 hours ago, JHRover said:

I think it will be us and Huddersfield to join Rotherham in League One.

Wednesday have proven that they have that fighting spirit and ability to win games when the pressure is on. I am dreading our match against them.

Birmingham are poor but in Rowett have a shrewd operator who should have enough to get a win or two from their relatively kind remaining fixtures (Rotherham and Huddersfield to come).

Forget about Millwall, QPR and Stoke, they'll be fine.

Plymouth a maybe but have two opportunities coming up in Stoke and Millwall both away.

Huddersfield and Brum for me. Whilst I really rate Rowett he's had zero new manager bounce so far. Both teams probably won't get a win meaning we will get to safety by default  

[Lucimo]

1 hour ago, Blue blood said:

Huddersfield and Brum for me. Whilst I really rate Rowett he's had zero new manager bounce so far. Both teams probably won't get a win meaning we will get to safety by default  

He's had as many wins as our clown manager in a lot less games.

[Tom]

Rovers v Sheff Wednesday 21st April 

Huddersfield v Birmingham 27th April 

I know there’s 3 other games each but those are pivotal games, I feel if we win ours we are safe no matter what and if the other is a draw we take a big step to safety 

A loss for us and a win for either in the other and we are in the mire!  

 

[Blue blood]

2 hours ago, Lucimo said:

He's had as many wins as our clown manager in a lot less games.

Fair point. Perhaps zero impact is a little harsh. I should say less impact than I would expect and not a lot of a new manager bounce. (Mind you beating our clown manager is a low bar and no indication of quality.)

[broadsword]

Plymouth beat Leicester last night, didn't see that coming

[lraC]

1 hour ago, broadsword said:

Plymouth beat Leicester last night, didn't see that coming

I did and they were 6/1. Todays treble, Leeds -1, Birmingham plus 1 and Sheffield Wednesday. Odds are around 4/1. For those asking Rovers are 4/1 to go down. We will be evens or less after the Sheffield Wednesday game. 

[broadsword]

18 minutes ago, lraC said:

I did and they were 6/1. Todays treble, Leeds -1, Birmingham plus 1 and Sheffield Wednesday. Odds are around 4/1. For those asking Rovers are 4/1 to go down. We will be evens or less after the Sheffield Wednesday game. 

Fair play but how do you explain the Sunderland game? A fiver nil flash in the pan, it's just mental

[lraC]

1 hour ago, broadsword said:

Fair play but how do you explain the Sunderland game? A fiver nil flash in the pan, it's just mental

It's hard to explain, but it is plain for all the see that Rovers have been a total shambles in most games under Eustace. 

We will definitely lose today by more than one and I am fairly sure next week V Sheffield Wednesday, we are already set up to fail in that one, thanks to Waggott.

We are set up today for a 0-0 and that is likely to unravel in the first half in my opinion. 

[rigger]

4 hours ago, lraC said:

It's hard to explain, but it is plain for all the see that Rovers have been a total shambles in most games under Eustace. 

We will definitely lose today by more than one and I am fairly sure next week V Sheffield Wednesday, we are already set up to fail in that one, thanks to Waggott.

We are set up today for a 0-0 and that is likely to unravel in the first half in my opinion. 

So you are the next Mystic Meg

[Neil Weaver]

37 minutes ago, rigger said:

So you are the next Mystic Merce

Fixed it for you

[lraC]

2 hours ago, rigger said:

So you are the next Mystic Meg

Thank goodness I’m not. 

[Mercer]

Looking at remaining fixtures for those at the bottom, providing we get a point against Coventry, think we will be safe, possibly just on goal difference.

20) Rovers 50 points

21) Huddersfield 50 points

22) Sheff Wed 50 points

23) Brum 48 points

24) Rotherham gone

Time for dinner now and a few drinkie poos!

Good night!

[philipl]

The first current form extrapolation I did with 12 games left had Rovers finishing on 45 points in 23rd then extrapolating current form with 8 left took us to 49 points in 20th. We are now on 49 points with 3 to play.

Current form over the last 5 games:

Swansea, Millwall, Rovers, Plymouth and QPR 1st= with 7 points

Birmingham, Stoke and Sheffield Wednesday 6 points

Huddersfield 5 points

Watford 4 points has left them just about safe at 52 points

Games involving teams at the bottom still to come are next weekend:

Rovers v Wednesday - anything better than a defeat seals Rovers finishing above Wednesday

Stoke v Plymouth  

Swansea v Huddersfield

Penultimate weekend:

Millwall v Plymouth

Huddersfield v Birmingham - relegation decider (Brum play Norwich and Huddersfield go to Ipswich on the last day)?

Last day:

Swansea v Millwall

At this stage, the games of struggler v struggler mean one if not both will drop points in trying to get to 50 points which with only 3 games left is the realistic target to move ahead of Rovers. 

 

Edited April 14 by philipl

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

2 hours ago, philipl said:

The first current form extrapolation I did with 12 games left had Rovers finishing on 45 points in 23rd then extrapolating current form with 8 left took us to 49 points in 20th. We are now on 49 points with 3 to play.

Current form over the last 5 games:

Swansea, Millwall, Rovers, Plymouth and QPR 1st= with 7 points

Birmingham, Stoke and Sheffield Wednesday 6 points

Huddersfield 5 points

Watford 4 points has left them just about safe at 52 points

Games involving teams at the bottom still to come are next weekend:

Rovers v Wednesday - anything better than a defeat seals Rovers finishing above Wednesday

Stoke v Plymouth  

Swansea v Huddersfield

Penultimate weekend:

Millwall v Plymouth

Huddersfield v Birmingham - relegation decider (Brum play Norwich and Huddersfield go to Ipswich on the last day)?

Last day:

Swansea v Millwall

At this stage, the games of struggler v struggler mean one if not both will drop points in trying to get to 50 points which with only 3 games left is the realistic target to move ahead of Rovers. 

 

So how many points will be enough Phil ? I think anything other than a loss againt Sheff Wed  would be enough. Even if we lose we have a good home game v Coventry and away at Leicester isn’t what it was a month ago. I we can win at Leeds we can win there too.

[47er]

4 points will do it? The Huddersfield--Birmingham clash works in our favour there.

We might not need them but I don't think we could be even mathematically relegated with 53 points?

[roverblue]

I tried to look at the table and work out if we can be mathematically safe if we dont lose to Sheff Wed but went cross eyed.

I think its better to see how Saturday plays out then discuss prior to our sunday kick off 😆

Edited April 14 by roverblue

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

2 hours ago, 47er said:

4 points will do it? The Huddersfield--Birmingham clash works in our favour there.

We might not need them but I don't think we could be even mathematically relegated with 53 points?

I’d be amazed if we weren’t safe with 4 more points.

[47er]

1 hour ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

I’d be amazed if we weren’t safe with 4 more points.

I agree but I was thinking that would make us mathematically safe.

Knowing us we'll probably lose to Wednesday!

[philipl]

8 hours ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

So how many points will be enough Phil ? I think anything other than a loss againt Sheff Wed  would be enough. Even if we lose we have a good home game v Coventry and away at Leicester isn’t what it was a month ago. I we can win at Leeds we can win there too.

If we beat Sheffield Wednesday, Huddersfield have to have beaten Swansea AND Birmingham need to have drawn at Rotherham to leave us needing just a point to be safe barring a 9 goal swing in the last two rounds. 

If Huddersfield draw or lose, a Rovers win sees us safe. Birmingham also need to avoid defeat at Rotherham for a Rovers win not to seal safety with two to go irrespective of the Huddersfield result.

If Rovers beat Wednesday, we will be in the land of extremely unlikely probabilities to go down because not only do Huddersfield and Birmingham need to win all their three remaining games in effect, ALL of Millwall getting 2 points, Plymouth 4 pts, QPR and Stoke 5pts each AS WELL have to happen in their last 3 games. 

If we draw with Wednesday, Wednesday would need to win remaining games against West Brom and Sunderland, we would need to lose the last two AND Wednesday need to make up a 17 goal difference to finish above us. If Huddersfield lose against Swansea and we draw then they too need to win their last two and us lose our last two to finish above us.

If Rovers beat Wednesday, we will be in the land of extremely unlikely probabilities to go down because Millwall will need 2 points, Plymouth 4 pts, QPR and Stoke 5pts each AS WELL from their last 3 games. A draw is probably enough.

Only defeat to Wednesday puts us back in the soup but even then all except one of Sheffield Wednesday, Huddersfield, Birmingham, Stoke, QPR and Plymouth still would need to collect more points than us across the last three games for us to go down.

[Blue blood]

Let's be honest we are safe. No way are all the clubs below us picking up enough points to overtake us. And thats assuming we get no more points too.