We are going down (the pessimism thread)

[Sweaty Gussets]

1 hour ago, DE. said:

Just to note this thread will operate under the same guidelines as the optimism thread - arguing against pessimistic takes not accepted. I

Can you put that disclaimer in the optimism thread too. Lots of negative posts in there, which clearly isn't allowed. 

Edited September 23, 2023 by Sweaty Gussets

[DE.]

J*B already did on the first page I believe. I've already hidden a couple from the current page, but will go back through the thread and hide any others not adhering to the guidelines.

[DE.]

OK, evidently I hadn't been keeping up with the optimism thread, so I've moved a bunch of pessimistic posts to here instead, hence the sudden additional posts. Apologies to Jim whose first post is now bumped down by a few, even though he was the thread starter.

[Wheelton Blue]

Anyone else get the feeling that things are conspiring against us?

Hedges is IMO a poor player, but he's another body down in addition to Ennis & Gallagher, meaning that we're even more reliant on the likes of Dolan.

We could well be looking over our shoulders in a couple of games.

[martonrover]

8 minutes ago, Wheelton Blue said:

Anyone else get the feeling that things are conspiring against us?

Hedges is IMO a poor player, but he's another body down in addition to Ennis & Gallagher, meaning that we're even more reliant on the likes of Dolan.

We could well be looking over our shoulders in a couple of games.

It’s partly self inflicted, egs Gallagher and Ennis who both have a poor injury record but, yes, it’s looking a bit ominous.

I don’t rate Gallagher but, such is our lack of squad depth, he’s a very important player for us, and I feared the worst when we heard the extent of his lay-off.

[roversfan99]

It is very much self inflicted.

Our current injury situation is nothing remarkable. Such are the budget cuts, our main couple of forwards are both injury prone. Aside from that, Hedges is unfortunate but is only as big a blow as it is because of the dearth of options we have in attacking positons. Beyond that, beside a youth CB, do we have other injuries?

If you look at the squad, compounded by aggressive budget slashing and the inability to reinvest due to squandered potential fees due to the stubborn owners. 2 keepers, probably costing 1m between them. Main 8 defenders include 4 graduates, a loan and 3 who cost around a combined 2.8m. In midfield, 3 graduates and a freebie. Attacking midfield, a loanee, a one year permanent freebie and then 4 more costing a combined 2.7m, and then obviously Gallagher at 5m alongside a freebie, a graduate and a young punt for a nominal fee. Barely over 10m combined cost across the whole squad, the 5m signing is from 4 or 5 summers ago, since then we have spent and retained about 5 or 6 million worth of players. Imagine how screwed we would be without the academy.

[Displaced Rover]

On 23/09/2023 at 19:03, DE. said:

J*B already did on the first page I believe. I've already hidden a couple from the current page, but will go back through the thread and hide any others not adhering to the guidelines.

Is there a thread for people who think we'll knock about mid table for the next 10 years? Or am in the right place here by holding that view?

[LeftWinger]

24 minutes ago, Displaced Rover said:

Is there a thread for people who think we'll knock about mid table for the next 10 years? Or am in the right place here by holding that view?

I'd suggest that should be posted in the optimism thread going off what's currently happening at the club. 

[DE.]

1 hour ago, Displaced Rover said:

Is there a thread for people who think we'll knock about mid table for the next 10 years? Or am in the right place here by holding that view?

Well, if your ambition and expectation for the club is to avoid relegation from this league for the next ten years then technically it's an optimistic take and you could post it in the optimism thread. Otherwise it probably belongs in this thread 🙂 

[LeftWinger]

https://www.whoscored.com/Regions/252/Tournaments/7/Seasons/9622/Stages/22080/TeamStatistics/England-Championship-2023-2024

We're conceding 19 shots per game (worst in the division)

The average for the division is 12.9 and the next worst team after us has conceded 16.1 shots per game. The rest of the division average between 10 and 16.1 shots per game - showing out 19 per game as really poor.

We're far to open and unless it's addressed we'll keep losing high scoring games. 

[G Somerset Rover]

Three home defeats in five and conceding goals for fun. Coventry away next.

If QPR beat us next weekend then we should all be very concerned.

[J*B]

Here’s the reality. 

If JDT saw his long term future here, he should sure up the defence and adapt the style of play to ensure we navigate ourselves to a 9th (or similar) place finish. He doesn’t have the squad to begin to challenge the top six over a full season, but equally we’re far too good to go down. 

But the manager doesn’t see his future here, because the promises he was given when he joined “the project” have been broken by Waggott, Pasha and Venkys. His budget has been cut and he’s being asked to adapt his expectations, which he is unwilling to do. 

So he’s now protecting his reputation. He’s sticking to an appealing playing style and is happy to lose games as long as the media talks about “great style of football”, “fantastic attacking movement” and the like.

Why? Because when clubs with budget and ambition sack their managers, he’s going to be right at the top of most shortlists for the top of the Championship, bottom of the Premier League and across European leagues. Because they’ll see he created positive, entertaining football with a terrible squad. 

And Rovers can’t do anything about it. Waggott can’t sack him for results, because everyone knows who is to blame - Waggott, Venkys and Pasha. JDT has the management over a barrel because he’s made it absolutely clear across the media that he wasn’t given what he was promised and isn’t happy. 

What happens next? The season carries on exactly as is. We’ll beat teams like Cardiff 5-3 and get smashed by the better teams in the league. They won’t back him in January, not only because of their own geo political issues but also because it’s clear he’s no long term future here. The tension will build until JDT decides his time here is done. 

[ItsRoverZ]

I shall wollow in this thread in self pity 

[CambridgeRover]

Venkys and waggott, recipe for failure.

 

We will get relegated if JDT goes 

[roversfan99]

1 hour ago, J*B said:

Here’s the reality. 

If JDT saw his long term future here, he should sure up the defence and adapt the style of play to ensure we navigate ourselves to a 9th (or similar) place finish. He doesn’t have the squad to begin to challenge the top six over a full season, but equally we’re far too good to go down. 

But the manager doesn’t see his future here, because the promises he was given when he joined “the project” have been broken by Waggott, Pasha and Venkys. His budget has been cut and he’s being asked to adapt his expectations, which he is unwilling to do. 

So he’s now protecting his reputation. He’s sticking to an appealing playing style and is happy to lose games as long as the media talks about “great style of football”, “fantastic attacking movement” and the like.

Why? Because when clubs with budget and ambition sack their managers, he’s going to be right at the top of most shortlists for the top of the Championship, bottom of the Premier League and across European leagues. Because they’ll see he created positive, entertaining football with a terrible squad. 

And Rovers can’t do anything about it. Waggott can’t sack him for results, because everyone knows who is to blame - Waggott, Venkys and Pasha. JDT has the management over a barrel because he’s made it absolutely clear across the media that he wasn’t given what he was promised and isn’t happy. 

What happens next? The season carries on exactly as is. We’ll beat teams like Cardiff 5-3 and get smashed by the better teams in the league. They won’t back him in January, not only because of their own geo political issues but also because it’s clear he’s no long term future here. The tension will build until JDT decides his time here is done. 

It's not necessarily the reality, more your theory.

They won't back him in January because Venkys (the blame doesn't need distributing, its 100% in India) have slashed the budgets and have turned the taps off, nothing to do with not seeing Tomasson here long term.

This idea that Tomasson is sticking to the style purely focusing on his personal career makes no sense. These clubs won't come in for him regardless of style if we are near the bottom.

If he is unconcerned about the club and putting his reputation first over the wellbeing of the club, then he needs to go. But it is such a warped theory, he will get more suitors if we are higher up the table.

He clearly has always wanted to build towards this style, either through personal choice or this backward way in which clubs now run whereby the director of football chooses the style and the actual person who knows how to manage a team goes along with it. Obviously he is reluctant to rip up or even tweak something he has been working on for over a year.

[DanielMB]

https://footballleagueworld.co.uk/all-24-efl-championship-sides-in-order-of-their-wage-bill-ranked/#millwall-pound-6-714-000

 

I don't know how accurate this is but it probably gives us a good idea of what we are up against. We are all hoping for a promotion push at some point but what are the chances really? Today we played against a team whose budget is 10 times bigger than ours. It really worries me that there doesn't seem to be a clear strategy at our club. It seems that we have Gregg and Jon who are fighting their own impossible battle to put together a decent team while Venkys continuosly are making it more and more difficult. In the middle we have Waggott. Why have we brought in Gregg in the first place? I'd love to know what his job interview was like. To run a successful club you have to have some sort of symmetry within the club. Now we have Gregg stating that we have had a good transfer window while Jon is taking swings at Waggott. At the same time Waggott is taking about avoiding relegation while driving around in our newly acquired bus.

It's so fucking frustrating watching this unfold before our eyes. And its been 13 years. I wish Venkys would either commit to something serious or just bugger off instead of just slowly killing us off because it sure feels like that is what they are doing.

Edited October 1, 2023 by DanielMB

[martonrover]

Hope they’re all taking their medication on the optimism thread, because they’re going to need it.

We need a couple of results, quickly, or the die will be cast for the season.

@J*B has pretty much nailed it for me. 

This isn’t going to end well.

[Wheelton Blue]

I genuinely think we're heading straight on into a relegation scrap.

We're so easy to play against and so easy to scrore against.

Tomasson needs to swallow his pride and look to grind out a few draws.

[sharpysharps86]

3 hours ago, roversfan99 said:

This idea that Tomasson is sticking to the style purely focusing on his personal career makes no sense. These clubs won't come in for him regardless of style if we are near the bottom.

Sort of agree on this, but there's loads of clubs out there that seem to value style of play over winning. For example: Southampton bringing in Russell Martin who has arguably been the most overrated manager in the league for 2 seasons at Swansea, flattering to deceive and struggling a lot at times with continuous individual errors...the kind we are seeing with this Rovers side. Maybe it's outdated view now but I've always felt that Mark Hughes and Big Sam's mentalities of sorting the defence out first before figuring out how your team is going to score goals is a better way of going about things. After all, if you're not conceding goals then you're not losing games.

 

[simongarnerisgod]

1 hour ago, Wheelton Blue said:

I genuinely think we're heading straight on into a relegation scrap.

We're so easy to play against and so easy to scrore against.

Tomasson needs to swallow his pride and look to grind out a few draws.

we ar`nt going down,we`ll beat the poorer sides but get massively exposed by the good ones,if this carries on i think we`ll finish in the middle,if jdt manages to get off his manic attacking,lets all rush up the pitch and leave the middle a lovely shade of green and he gets some handle on the situation we could push for the play offs

[roversfan99]

8 minutes ago, sharpysharps86 said:

Sort of agree on this, but there's loads of clubs out there that seem to value style of play over winning. For example: Southampton bringing in Russell Martin who has arguably been the most overrated manager in the league for 2 seasons at Swansea, flattering to deceive and struggling a lot at times with continuous individual errors...the kind we are seeing with this Rovers side. Maybe it's outdated view now but I've always felt that Mark Hughes and Big Sam's mentalities of sorting the defence out first before figuring out how your team is going to score goals is a better way of going about things. After all, if you're not conceding goals then you're not losing games.

 

I do get that and find it totally baffling, but Martin did finish 9th or 10th at Swansea in the end. I don't think anyone decent goes for Tomasson with us near the bottom.

[rovers11]

We're not going down. We will beat the lesser teams at home and pick up the odd result away from home. 

But we won't get near the play offs. Us simply becoming a development club is not good enough for a club like ours. Nothing will change though with the current ownership. No ambition at all. 

I completely agree with the post above that the current style of play is all about JDT looking to further his career rather than because it is the best way for us to get results. That doesn't sit well with me. 

Edited October 1, 2023 by rovers11

[DE.]

Just now, roversfan99 said:

I do get that and find it totally baffling, but Martin did finish 9th or 10th at Swansea in the end. I don't think anyone decent goes for Tomasson with us near the bottom.

I tend to agree, if JDT resigned leaving us in the relegation zone that wouldn't be a good look, regardless of how many managers claim we're the best they've seen. 

He may come to regret not leaving in the summer when it was obvious the 'project' had changed and he had been lied to. I don't think any Rovers fan who really understands how shambolic the running of this club is would have begrudged him leaving. It would have hurt, but been completely understandable. From his perspective he'd have a solid first season at Rovers on his record and perfectly legitimate reasons for departing. There's always the "well would you walk away from your job without compensation?" argument, but I'm not wealthy and a world famous name, so it's not really a fair comparison. I'm sure JDT wouldn't have struggled to find work. 

Walking away in the summer would have been making a point. Walking away now is less clear cut because he started this season accepting the new project, even if he didn't like it, and would be leaving with the club struggling. 

That's also why I don't think he should be exempt from criticism. The budget changing in the summer and piss poor recruitment is not his fault, but by starting the season with us and continuing to take his wage for being manager of the club with the circumstances known, he also has to take some responsibility for how the current situation is being handled on the pitch. Would another manager come in and do better? I don't know, but we still shouldn't be shipping this amount of goals. 

And that's not me saying I want JDT to leave. I am in the camp of wanting him to stay, as I like his personality and believe he has some very solid ideas when it comes to playing football. I just want to see more from him in terms of adapting and adjusting to our current position. He's doing so with severe limitations, but a manager earns their money by being able to improve bad situations. That's not to say he can get us into playoff contention this season, and I don't expect that, but at minimum I expect us to concede less than two goals a game on average. I want us to stop letting the opposition have 15+ shots on our goal each game. I want to see us improve defensively, even if it means we scrape some 1-0 wins or even some 0-0's. That's all I'm asking at this point, as I don't foresee us finishing any better than mid-table based on the way the owners have hamstrung us in terms of recruitment.  

[roversfan99]

Its such a flawed theory that the manager is purposely prioritising style over results as its seen as more desirable. Maybe its just a case that this modern day data driven footballing world is totally backwards and there is truth in that. But I dont believe it. I think Tomasson is doing it because quite possibly having been told by Broughton when he arrived that its how we plan to play and this season is the culmination of over a years work and how he likes his team to play.

[roversfan99]

3 minutes ago, DE. said:

I tend to agree, if JDT resigned leaving us in the relegation zone that wouldn't be a good look, regardless of how many managers claim we're the best they've seen. 

He may come to regret not leaving in the summer when it was obvious the 'project' had changed and he had been lied to. I don't think any Rovers fan who really understands how shambolic the running of this club is would have begrudged him leaving. It would have hurt, but been completely understandable. From his perspective he'd have a solid first season at Rovers on his record and perfectly legitimate reasons for departing. There's always the "well would you walk away from your job without compensation?" argument, but I'm not wealthy and a world famous name, so it's not really a fair comparison. I'm sure JDT wouldn't have struggled to find work. 

Walking away in the summer would have been making a point. Walking away now is less clear cut because he started this season accepting the new project, even if he didn't like it, and would be leaving with the club struggling. 

That's also why I don't think he should be exempt from criticism. The budget changing in the summer and piss poor recruitment is not his fault, but by starting the season with us and continuing to take his wage for being manager of the club with the circumstances known, he also has to take some responsibility for how the current situation is being handled on the pitch. Would another manager come in and do better? I don't know, but we still shouldn't be shipping this amount of goals. 

And that's not me saying I want JDT to leave. I am in the camp of wanting him to stay, as I like his personality and believe he has some very solid ideas when it comes to playing football. I just want to see more from him in terms of adapting and adjusting to our current position. He's doing so with severe limitations, but a manager earns their money by being able to improve bad situations. That's not to say he can get us into playoff contention this season, and I don't expect that, but at minimum I expect us to concede less than two goals a game on average. I want us to stop letting the opposition have 15+ shots on our goal each game. I want to see us improve defensively, even if it means we scrape some 1-0 wins or even some 0-0's. That's all I'm asking at this point, as I don't foresee us finishing any better than mid-table based on the way the owners have hamstrung us in terms of recruitment.  

I would agree. The root cause of our problems is Venkys. Rejecting bids and slashing budgets later, the squad is not very strong. The club is run poorly from the top. Just like Waggott can be labelled an incompetent CEO without being the primary issue, Tomasson can be criticised if he makes poor footballing decisions.