We are going down (the pessimism thread)

[lraC]

4 minutes ago, Giant said:

History is full of irony, BRFC has a great history. We missed the playoffs on goal difference in 2023, if we go down in 2024 it will be on goal difference. Also the Norwich manager has a history of playing a weakened team, when he was at Huddersfield, to our disadvantage in 2017. I’ve no doubt he will do the same at Birmingham now that his team are definitely in the playoffs. Our only hope is Hull getting something at Plymouth. The omens aren’t good.

Norwich are not definitely in the play offs. Highly likely due to the goal difference, but I can’t imagine them playing a weakened team and risking a heavy defeat. 

[Ewood Ace]

Law of averages you'd expect us to stay up but when you break the games down in isolation it looks a lot more precarious. 

Firstly I struggle to see us getting the point we need at Leicester which means we are relying on other games.

I would be stunned if Sheffield Wednesday didn't get at least a point against a Sunderland team with 2 wins in 14.

I'd probably favour Birmingham to beat Norwich. Norwich are not great away from home and may rest a few with them pretty secure in the top 6. Also Birmingham do seem to have a habit of last day survivals.

With Hull still in with a chance of overtaking WBA I think them getting something at Plymouth is the best chance of a result going in our favour. But as Plymouth showed last time out at Home Park against Leicester they are no mugs down there.

 

[Herbie6590]

That Bristol City result hovers over us like bad smell…

[martonrover]

4 minutes ago, Ewood Ace said:

With Hull still in with a chance of overtaking WBA I think them getting something at Plymouth is the best chance of a result going in our favour

I agree, apart from helping ourselves (which we aren’t good at), that game looks to be our best hope.

If Hull hadn’t score that late equaliser (excellent game) I’d be forlorn.

[davulsukur]

12 hours ago, Upside Down said:

Just putting my tinfoil hat on for a moment.

I have a feeling that someone in India has looked at the numbers and decided a league one club or lower will be cheaper than a championship one. The initial loss of 10million will be offset by the fire sale in the summer and after that the losses will be affordable for venkys.

This relegation is 100% deliberate. This is the second time they've done this.

Don't think you need a tinfoil hat tbh. It is deliberate because they don't spend any money.

[Lucimo]

10 hours ago, Ghost7 said:

 

All are due a win then 🙂

It can happen.

Tbf you could argue Sheffield Wednesday are due a defeat 

[martonrover]

1 minute ago, davulsukur said:

Don't think you need a tinfoil hat tbh. It is deliberate because they don't spend any money.

I can’t stand Venkys as much as the next Rovers fan, but if the intention was to deliberately get relegated , (no-one told Szmodics by the way), why get into a position where it is dependent on other results in the final game?

[davulsukur]

15 hours ago, DE. said:

Honestly amazing what Rohl has done at Sheffield Wednesday. They'd only won a single match all season before beating our lot on December 2nd. They've gained 40 points since then. We've managed 22. 

Yeah a stunning job. Swap him out for Eustace any day.

[Hasta]

33 minutes ago, Giant said:

History is full of irony, BRFC has a great history. We missed the playoffs on goal difference in 2023, if we go down in 2024 it will be on goal difference. Also the Norwich manager has a history of playing a weakened team, when he was at Huddersfield, to our disadvantage in 2017. I’ve no doubt he will do the same at Birmingham now that his team are definitely in the playoffs. Our only hope is Hull getting something at Plymouth. The omens aren’t good.

I have to admit coming off the ground yesterday I was looking at the table thinking we were in a good situation. This morning however , it still looks so precarious. Norwich will field a weakened team, and I expect West Brom to be well in front early against Preston so Hull will know whatever they do at Plymouth is probably futile.

Edited April 28 by Hasta

[Mashed Potatoes]

5 minutes ago, Hasta said:

I have to admit coming off the ground yesterday I was looking at the table thinking we were in a good situation. This morning however , it still looks so precarious. Norwich will field a weakened team, and I expect West Brom to be well in front early against Preston so Hull will know whatever they do at Plymouth is probably futile.

Why are Norwich going to field a weakened team when they haven't clinched a play off spot ?

[Lucimo]

22 minutes ago, Ewood Ace said:

Law of averages you'd expect us to stay up but when you break the games down in isolation it looks a lot more precarious. 

Firstly I struggle to see us getting the point we need at Leicester which means we are relying on other games.

I would be stunned if Sheffield Wednesday didn't get at least a point against a Sunderland team with 2 wins in 14.

I'd probably favour Birmingham to beat Norwich. Norwich are not great away from home and may rest a few with them pretty secure in the top 6. Also Birmingham do seem to have a habit of last day survivals.

With Hull still in with a chance of overtaking WBA I think them getting something at Plymouth is the best chance of a result going in our favour. But as Plymouth showed last time out at Home Park against Leicester they are no mugs down there.

 

I agree Hull are our best hope. And you're right about brum. I have a mate who's a big blue nose and he messaged me yesterday to say they are fucked. I told him exactly what you said about them always escaping at the death. Think Southampton in the Premier league era.

[Hasta]

5 minutes ago, Mashed Potatoes said:

Why are Norwich going to field a weakened team when they haven't clinched a play off spot ?

Same reason Huddersfield are down. Although obviously I hope you are right.

Edited April 28 by Hasta

[bluebruce]

11 hours ago, Ghost7 said:

 

All are due a win then 🙂

It can happen.

My point wasn't that it can't happen, it's that it's unlikely. The bookies agree.

[danger19_80]

34 minutes ago, Hasta said:

Same reason Huddersfield are down. Although obviously I hope you are right.

Regardless of Hull, Norwich will want to finish above West Brom in 5th to avoid Ipswich or Leeds in the playoff semis I would expect. Southampton out of form so i think they'll think that's their best bet.

Edited April 28 by danger19_80

[davulsukur]

4 hours ago, martonrover said:

I can’t stand Venkys as much as the next Rovers fan, but if the intention was to deliberately get relegated , (no-one told Szmodics by the way), why get into a position where it is dependent on other results in the final game?

Deliberate relegation is perhaps a bit strong but managed decline is absolutely correct.

Next season, should we survive, it'll be more cost cutting, lowering of the wage bill, player sales and no investment. 

Relegation is technically Deliberate, as its inevitable due to the way the club run/starved of funds.

[MarkBRFC]

I have no doubts we will stay up.

But it won't be down to anything we do.

Us losing and all the other 3 results going against us seems far fetched to me.

One of them will mess up.

[Exiled_Rover]

9 hours ago, wilsdenrover said:

I can’t find more up to date figures but in:

2019/2020 championship clubs lost £443m (an average of £18.45m)

2020/2021 they lost £400m (£16.6m)

Clearly that doesn’t show ‘who lost what’ but it does seem to indicate our losses aren’t out of the ordinary for the division.

Of course we all know our losses could have been much lower if our senior management/owners weren’t so incompetent.

 

Our losses are a flat £20m every year without fail. We've pared down the playing squad tremendously in the last couple of seasons and have brought in £22m+ (not including Raya or add ons for Wharton) in transfer fees, yet it's still £20m.

It's no coincidence that the owners are being investigated for tax fraud. 

[Bbrovers2288]

My prediction for last day

sunderland score early 1-0 v owls

birmingham score mid way through first half 1-0 v Norwich 

we are 0-0 at ht

plymouth and hull 0-0 ht

plymouth score early in second half 1-0 v hull

owls equalise v Sunderland 

Leicester score about 70 mins to put us in the bottom 3 , a cock up at the back

birmingham score a 2nd 

Leicester score a second and we are done for saving ourselves 

Norwich pull one back 2-1 

Sheff we’d score a second, now 2-1 up

we now go into the last 10 mins praying for an equaliser in 2 of the games 

late hull goes saves our bacon for another season

We scrape in by a point 

[Wheelton Blue]

We'll most likely lose, Wednesday will get a point at least, and I think Birmingham might beat Norwich in front of a raucous crowd.

That would leave us relying on Hull to get something at Plymouth.

I'm not confident at all.

Edited April 29 by Wheelton Blue

[arbitro]

Having studied the fixtures and current from for Saturday my conclusion is that I haven't got a bloody clue if we will stay up. There will be far too many variables across the four matches like mistakes, incorrect refereeing decisions and injuries. Who can hold their nerve will be another important factor. The only thing I'm certain of is that it will be a nervous day for the fans of the four clubs involved and during play there will be emotional ebbs and flows.

I just hope the Wi-Fi at Leicester is better than Ewood so at least the Rovers fans in attendance can keep informed of developments.

[MarkBRFC]

You have to fancy Sheff Wed to get something so we can rule them out.

I just don't see Plymouth and Birmingham winning, infact I don't think either will.

[rog of the rovers]

If my maths are correct (see GCSE level- Raise 3 to the Power of 4 or 3^4 ) there are 81 different combinations of possibilities for Rovers, Sheffield Wednesday, Plymouth and Birmingham.

Only 2/81 would see Rovers relegated.

1. Rovers loss, Sheffield Wednesday win, Plymouth win and Birmingham win

2. Rovers loss, Sheffield Wednesday draw, Plymouth win and Birmingham win

 

Any other combination sees us safe to fight on in the Championship next season.

[roversfan99]

The issue is that all of those permutations are not equally likely so I suspect our chances are certainly higher than 2 in 81, although still a long shot.

For example, us losing at Leicester is 90-95% likely id say. Sheffield Wedneday getting a point at Sunderland is over 50% likely I think as well. Its the other 2 games that bring the probability right down.

Edited April 29 by roversfan99

[wilsdenrover]

1 hour ago, rog of the rovers said:

If my maths are correct (see GCSE level- Raise 3 to the Power of 4 or 3^4 ) there are 81 different combinations of possibilities for Rovers, Sheffield Wednesday, Plymouth and Birmingham.

Only 2/81 would see Rovers relegated.

1. Rovers loss, Sheffield Wednesday win, Plymouth win and Birmingham win

2. Rovers loss, Sheffield Wednesday draw, Plymouth win and Birmingham win

 

Any other combination sees us safe to fight on in the Championship next season.

Your maths is definitely correct 👍

Edited April 29 by wilsdenrover

[wilsdenrover]

1 hour ago, roversfan99 said:

The issue is that all of those permutations are not equally likely so I suspect our chances are certainly higher than 2 in 81, although still a long shot.

For example, us losing at Leicester is 90-95% likely id say. Sheffield Wedneday getting a point at Sunderland is over 50% likely I think as well. It’s the other 2 games that bring the probability right down.

Removing the ‘if we win’ permutations leaves 2 out of 54  where we go down.

Removing the ‘if we draw’ ones as well still leaves 25 out of 27 where we stay up.

Whilst, as you say, some are more likely than others - the odds are still massively in our favour.

That is until you introduce the ‘Venky factor’ 😬😬

Edited April 29 by wilsdenrover
Removed us drawing as well