v Leicester City (a) - 04/05/2024 - Will We Stay Or Will We Go?

[davulsukur]

32 minutes ago, JHRover said:

I think Wednesday get a result at Sunderland and Birmingham will beat a half hearted Norwich. I expect Birmingham to go ahead and hold on.

So it will come down to Plymouth not beating Hull....

That's not an awful lot of room for error, just hoping Hull beat Plymouth.

These last games for Sheff Wed, Plymouth & Birmingham are just one off games, give everything, form goes out of the window. It's their absolute last chance, they will all be a different animal for these games.

We should have had this sown up against Sheff Wdd but instead we turned in one of the most inept performances of the season. Again, should have had it sorted against 10 man Coventry but didn't.

I think we've blown our chance and we'll go down on Saturday.

 

[superniko]

Somebody mentioned on another thread that there are 81 permutations of results between ourselves, Sheff Wed, Plymouth and Birmingham this weekend and only 2 of them will relegate us (LWWW, LDWW).

Monday morning procrastination led me to offer the visualisation. 4.4% chance of happening, around 23/1 100% price. Nothing would be more Rovers than to drag this onto the final game of the season, and end up with the largest relegation points total since.....Rovers last time.

I'm holding hope onto Hull really.

[G Somerset Rover]

3 minutes ago, davulsukur said:

That's not an awful lot of room for error, just hoping Hull beat Plymouth.

These last games for Sheff Wed, Plymouth & Birmingham are just one off games, give everything, form goes out of the window. It's their absolute last chance, they will all be a different animal for these games.

We should have had this sown up against Sheff Wdd but instead we turned in one of the most inept performances of the season. Again, should have had it sorted against 10 man Coventry but didn't.

I think we've blown our chance and we'll go down on Saturday.

 

I am absolutely stunned that we're 18-1 to drop. I'm trying so hard not to "lump on" right now.

Like you, I just have this dreaded gut feel that we're going to drop. The other results really are not inconceivable whatsoever. Throw in a gutless performance from our boys and I genuinely feel like it can happen. 

Edit: fantastic work by Superniko above. But I still have this nagging feeling...

Edited April 29, 2024 by G Somerset Rover

[davulsukur]

14 minutes ago, superniko said:

Somebody mentioned on another thread that there are 81 permutations of results between ourselves, Sheff Wed, Plymouth and Birmingham this weekend and only 2 of them will relegate us (LWWW, LDWW).

Monday morning procrastination led me to offer the visualisation. 4.4% chance of happening, around 23/1 100% price. Nothing would be more Rovers than to drag this onto the final game of the season, and end up with the largest relegation points total since.....Rovers last time.

I'm holding hope onto Hull really.

Top work Dr. Strange.

 

[davulsukur]

14 minutes ago, G Somerset Rover said:

I am absolutely stunned that we're 18-1 to drop. I'm trying so hard not to "lump on" right now.

Like you, I just have this dreaded gut feel that we're going to drop. The other results really are not inconceivable whatsoever. Throw in a gutless performance from our boys and I genuinely feel like it can happen. 

Edit: fantastic work by Superniko above. But I still have this nagging feeling...

It would just be typical of having the curse of Venkys over us that there 81 possibilities, only 2 result in relegation for Rovers and yet we still go down.

[superniko]

42 minutes ago, superniko said:

Somebody mentioned on another thread that there are 81 permutations of results between ourselves, Sheff Wed, Plymouth and Birmingham this weekend and only 2 of them will relegate us (LWWW, LDWW).

Monday morning procrastination led me to offer the visualisation. 4.4% chance of happening, around 23/1 100% price. Nothing would be more Rovers than to drag this onto the final game of the season, and end up with the largest relegation points total since.....Rovers last time.

I'm holding hope onto Hull really.

 

 

Added in the team who gets relegated each time to see the difference between Birmingham and Plymouth in particular.

2 of 81 permutations relegates Rovers

3 of 81 permutations relegates Wednesday 

20 of 81 permutations relegates Plymouth

56 of 81 permutations relegates Birmingham

Edited April 29, 2024 by superniko

[Lancaster Rover]

it's the fact we've not been in the bottom 3 all season that worries me, it's one of those million to 1 stories that seems to happen in football. Similar to Royal Antwerp winning the Belgium league last year having been top for the final 3 minutes of the season and winning it. I have this horrible feeling we drop into the bottom 3 with minutes to spare, spending the shortest time ever in the relegation places yet being relegated and again with a 50 point total! 

[Silas]

1 hour ago, superniko said:

Monday morning procrastination led me to offer the visualisation. 4.4% chance of happening,

Don't want to be picky, but isn't 2 out of 81 a 2.47% chance of happening? 

[superniko]

3 minutes ago, Silas said:

Don't want to be picky, but isn't 2 out of 81 a 2.47% chance of happening? 

No because those 81 permutations all have a different % chance of occuring and are not equal (as shown in the image).

e.g. the chance of all 4 teams winning is different to the chance of all 4 teams drawing

Edited April 29, 2024 by superniko

[Silas]

4 minutes ago, superniko said:

No because those 81 permutations all have a different % chance of occuring and are not equal (as shown in the image).

e.g. the chance of all 4 teams winning is different to the chance of all 4 teams drawing

My brain is frying.

Can't get my head round it.

Thanks for posting though, interesting tables. 

[Tricky]

Rovers love making the history books for all the wrong reasons so...

Team to be relegated as they finish with the league top goalscorer award will go to us.

Lump on.

[booth]

3 minutes ago, Tricky said:

Rovers love making the history books for all the wrong reasons so...

Team to be relegated as they finish with the league top goalscorer award will go to us.

Lump on.

Travis gets promoted and relegated at the same time.

[arbitro]

https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/efl-tried-stop-norwich-boss-29079002

According to this report the EFL are aware of the situation with Wagner and his shenanigans in 2017. The integrity of the competition is once again at stake but I personally think it's just lip service from the EFL.

[Exiled_Rover]

3 hours ago, davulsukur said:

That's not an awful lot of room for error, just hoping Hull beat Plymouth.

These last games for Sheff Wed, Plymouth & Birmingham are just one off games, give everything, form goes out of the window. It's their absolute last chance, they will all be a different animal for these games.

We should have had this sown up against Sheff Wdd but instead we turned in one of the most inept performances of the season. Again, should have had it sorted against 10 man Coventry but didn't.

I think we've blown our chance and we'll go down on Saturday.

 

We were fine against Sheffield Wednesday. The GK literally threw two into his own net. 

[Exiled_Rover]

Just now, arbitro said:

https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/efl-tried-stop-norwich-boss-29079002

According to this report the EFL are aware of the situation with Wagner and his shenanigans in 2017. The integrity of the competition is once again at stake but I personally think it's just lip service from the EFL.

Same EFL that delay punishing Sheffield Utd et al for financial irregularities until they get promoted so they don't have to deal with it - rather than, y'know, docking them 10 points in their promotion season. 

[RevidgeBlue]

2 hours ago, superniko said:

 

Added in the team who gets relegated each time to see the difference between Birmingham and Plymouth in particular.

2 of 81 permutations relegates Rovers

3 of 81 permutations relegates Wednesday 

20 of 81 permutations relegates Plymouth

56 of 81 permutations relegates Birmingham

Good work.

[Exiled_Rover]

3 hours ago, neophox said:

If we stay up or go down.... we need a fresh start next season.... Euseless not the right choice.

I've never understood these nicknames. They're neither big, clever or amusing.  

[rigger]

8 minutes ago, Exiled_Rover said:

I've never understood these nicknames. They're neither big, clever or amusing.  

Irony

[Exiled_Rover]

2 hours ago, superniko said:

 

Added in the team who gets relegated each time to see the difference between Birmingham and Plymouth in particular.

2 of 81 permutations relegates Rovers

3 of 81 permutations relegates Wednesday 

20 of 81 permutations relegates Plymouth

56 of 81 permutations relegates Birmingham

Realistically it's 2 of 18 - cos we're not getting anything at Leicester and Sheffield Wednesday are getting something from Sunderland. 

[rog of the rovers]

Leicester winning the title tonight also helps IMHO.

100 points would still be achievable for them, but they got 102 points in 2013/14, so even two wins doesn't clinch any records for them.

The most successful Championship team (last 30 years) was Reading at 106 points so not a chance on breaking that record either.

A win tonight for them, title wrapped up and a jovial, laissez faire, party atmosphere on Saturday where they're lifting the trophy come what may, would be the best case scenario for us.

[Tricky]

1 minute ago, rog of the rovers said:

Leicester winning the title tonight also helps IMHO.

100 points would still be achievable for them, but they got 102 points in 2013/14, so even two wins doesn't clinch any records for them.

The most successful Championship team (last 30 years) was Reading at 106 points so not a chance on breaking that record either.

A win tonight for them, title wrapped up and a jovial, laissez faire, party atmosphere on Saturday where they're lifting the trophy come what may, would be the best case scenario for us.

 

hopefully they didn't party too much over the weekend clinching promotion 

[Michael123458]

4 hours ago, davulsukur said:

That's not an awful lot of room for error, just hoping Hull beat Plymouth.

These last games for Sheff Wed, Plymouth & Birmingham are just one off games, give everything, form goes out of the window. It's their absolute last chance, they will all be a different animal for these games.

We should have had this sown up against Sheff Wdd but instead we turned in one of the most inept performances of the season. Again, should have had it sorted against 10 man Coventry but didn't.

I think we've blown our chance and we'll go down on Saturday.

 

No chance pal we will finish at worst 20th 

we will stay up in my opinion but fair play to you for yours 

[Waggy76]

How many tickets did we get  for this fixture ?

 

[MarkBRFC]

14 minutes ago, Waggy76 said:

How many tickets did we get  for this fixture ?

 

Just over 2k I believe.

[wilsdenrover]

2 hours ago, booth said:

Travis gets promoted and relegated at the same time.

Does that mean he’d have to stay in the championship?