Expected Points Comparison

TheKitGuy · September 4

I started this in the Bristol C match thread but believe it might be best for it to have it's own thread. I'll update this as the week's go by, this should give us a clear indication on what direction we are heading and how we compare to everyone else this season as well as teams in key positions over the last 5 years.

Current PPG - 2.00

Average xPPG over 5yrs | 24/25 Season

If we win against Bristol C
PPG - 2.2
If we draw against Bristol C
PPG - 1.8
If we lose against Bristol City
PPG - 1.6
(PPG = points per game)
(xPPG = expected points per game)

Herbie6590 · September 8

@jharvfootball on Twitter has this on the go…

47er · September 8

Bit early for me!

Herbie6590 · September 14

TheKitGuy · September 14

Current PPG - 2.20

Average xPPG over 5yrs | 24/25 Season

1st xPPG - 2.08 | 1st xPPG - 2.40

2nd xPPG - 1.95 | 2nd xPPG - 2.20

3rd xPPG - 1.82 | 3rd xPPG - 2.00

6th xPPG - 1.58 | 6th xPPG - 1.80

12th xPPG - 1.36 | 12th xPPG - 1.20

21st xPPG - 1.02 | 21st xPPG - 0.80

22nd xPPG - 0.96 | 22nd xPPG - 0.60

24th xPPG - 0.80 | 24th xPPG - 0.20

If we win against PNE

PPG - 2.33

If we draw against PNE

PPG - 2.00

If we lose against PNE

PPG - 1.83

(PPG = points per game)

(xPPG = expected points per game)

Edited September 14 by TheKitGuy
Add colours

SIMON GARNERS 194 · September 14

Simply a much,much better start than anyone thought possible.

Exiled in Toronto Mk2 · September 15

7 hours ago, Herbie6590 said:

I had exactly that chart on my office wall in 1980, much to the amusement of my colleagues given my office was in Bournville.

Herbie6590 · September 15

4 hours ago, Exiled in Toronto Mk2 said:

I had exactly that chart on my office wall in 1980, much to the amusement of my colleagues given my office was in Bournville.

Cadbury’s? 🤔

Exiled in Toronto Mk2 · September 15

5 hours ago, Herbie6590 said:

Cadbury’s? 🤔

Full of Villa fans

Herbie6590 · September 15

20 minutes ago, Exiled in Toronto Mk2 said:

Full of Villa fans

I have a couple of mates who work there now under the Mondelez banner of course these days.

Fabulous cricket ground, loved playing there.

Exiled in Toronto Mk2 · September 15

1 hour ago, Herbie6590 said:

I have a couple of mates who work there now under the Mondelez banner of course these days.

Fabulous cricket ground, loved playing there.

Tell them to work harder, my pension depends on it! I played a few times on the football pitch alongside the cricket pitch, same turf as old Wembley the groundsman once told me.

TheKitGuy · September 22

Current PPG - 2.00

Average xPPG over 5yrs 24/25 Season

If we win against QPR
PPG - 2.14
If we draw against QPR
PPG - 1.71
If we lose against QPR
PPG - 1.57
(PPG = points per game)
(xPPG = expected points per game)

NeilInBristol · September 23

20 hours ago, TheKitGuy said:

Current PPG - 2.00

Average xPPG over 5yrs 24/25 Season

1st xPPG - 2.08 | 1st xPPG - 2.66
2nd xPPG - 1.95 | 2nd xPPG - 2.5
3rd xPPG - 1.82 | 3rd xPPG - 2.16
6th xPPG - 1.58 | 6th xPPG - 1.83
12th xPPG - 1.36 | 12th xPPG - 1.33
21st xPPG - 1.02 | 21st xPPG - 0.83
22nd xPPG - 0.96 | 22nd xPPG - 0.66
24th xPPG - 0.80 | 24th xPPG - 0.16

If we win against QPR
PPG - 2.14
If we draw against QPR
PPG - 1.71
If we lose against QPR
PPG - 1.57
(PPG = points per game)
(xPPG = expected points per game)

This is great

TheKitGuy · September 23

3 hours ago, NeilInBristol said:

This is great

Cheers mate

Forever Blue · September 23

On 22/09/2024 at 14:02, TheKitGuy said:

Current PPG - 2.00

Average xPPG over 5yrs 24/25 Season

1st xPPG - 2.08 | 1st xPPG - 2.66
2nd xPPG - 1.95 | 2nd xPPG - 2.5
3rd xPPG - 1.82 | 3rd xPPG - 2.16
6th xPPG - 1.58 | 6th xPPG - 1.83
12th xPPG - 1.36 | 12th xPPG - 1.33
21st xPPG - 1.02 | 21st xPPG - 0.83
22nd xPPG - 0.96 | 22nd xPPG - 0.66
24th xPPG - 0.80 | 24th xPPG - 0.16

If we win against QPR
PPG - 2.14
If we draw against QPR
PPG - 1.71
If we lose against QPR
PPG - 1.57
(PPG = points per game)
(xPPG = expected points per game)

PPG so far this season suggests it’s a more unequal league than normal. Early days obviously.

excellent stats though, as Neil says.

Hasta · September 23

5 hours ago, Forever Blue said:

PPG so far this season suggests it’s a more unequal league than normal. Early days obviously.

excellent stats though, as Neil says.

Looking back at last season after 6 games it’s very similar. Top had 16 points (Preston!) , 6th had 11 points and mid table had 8 points. I’m guessing over a period of 6 games at any point in the season the form table would look similar. It’s consistency across the season.

I agree it is interesting to monitor. Nice one @TheKitGuy

Edited September 23 by Hasta

TheKitGuy · September 28

Current PPG - 2.14

Average xPPG over 5yrs 24/25 Season

1st xPPG - 2.08 | 1st xPPG - 2.28

2nd xPPG - 1.95 | 2nd xPPG - 2.14

3rd xPPG - 1.82 | 3rd xPPG - 2.14

6th xPPG - 1.58 | 6th xPPG - 1.85

12th xPPG - 1.36 | 12th xPPG - 1.28

21st xPPG - 1.02 | 21st xPPG - 0.71

22nd xPPG - 0.96 | 22nd xPPG - 0.71

24th xPPG - 0.80 | 24th xPPG - 0.14

If we win against Coventry

PPG - 2.25

If we draw against Coventry

PPG - 2.00

If we lose against Coventry

PPG - 1.87

(PPG = points per game)

(xPPG = expected points per game)

NeilInBristol · September 30

Looking good

TheKitGuy · October 5

Current PPG - 1.87

Average xPPG over 5yrs 24/25 Season

If we win against Plymouth
PPG - 2.00
If we draw against Plymouth
PPG - 1.77
If we lose against Plymouth
PPG - 1.66
(PPG = points per game)
(xPPG = expected points per game)

TheKitGuy · October 8

Current PPG - 1.66

Average xPPG over 5yrs 24/25 Season

1st xPPG - 2.08 | 1st xPPG - 2.11

2nd xPPG - 1.95 | 2nd xPPG - 2.11

3rd xPPG - 1.82 | 3rd xPPG - 2.00

6th xPPG - 1.58 | 6th xPPG - 1.77

12th xPPG - 1.36 | 12th xPPG - 1.33

21st xPPG - 1.02 | 21st xPPG - 0.88

22nd xPPG - 0.96 | 22nd xPPG - 0.77

24th xPPG - 0.80 | 24th xPPG - 0.55

If we win against Swansea

PPG - 1.80

If we draw against Swansea

PPG - 1.60

If we lose against Swansea

PPG - 1.50

(PPG = points per game)

(xPPG = expected points per game)

NeilInBristol · October 9

On 08/10/2024 at 12:55, TheKitGuy said:

Current PPG - 1.66

Average xPPG over 5yrs 24/25 Season

1st xPPG - 2.08 | 1st xPPG - 2.11

2nd xPPG - 1.95 | 2nd xPPG - 2.11

3rd xPPG - 1.82 | 3rd xPPG - 2.00

6th xPPG - 1.58 | 6th xPPG - 1.77

12th xPPG - 1.36 | 12th xPPG - 1.33

21st xPPG - 1.02 | 21st xPPG - 0.88

22nd xPPG - 0.96 | 22nd xPPG - 0.77

24th xPPG - 0.80 | 24th xPPG - 0.55

If we win against Swansea

PPG - 1.80

If we draw against Swansea

PPG - 1.60

If we lose against Swansea

PPG - 1.50

(PPG = points per game)

(xPPG = expected points per game)

Great as always. Really helps to keep the perspective

TheKitGuy · October 21

Current PPG - 1.80

Average xPPG over 5yrs 24/25 Season

If we win against WBA
PPG - 1.91
If we draw against WBA
PPG - 1.72
If we lose against WBA
PPG - 1.63
(PPG = points per game)
(xPPG = expected points per game)

Herbie6590 · October 27

courtesy of @jharvfootball on Twitter

Exiled in Toronto Mk2 · October 28

On 27/10/2024 at 08:39, Herbie6590 said:

courtesy of @jharvfootball on Twitter

Great chart! Could be improved even further IMO by adding a moving annual points total line across the top.

jim mk2 · October 28

Interesting graphic but it doesn't tell the story that is unfolding in recent weeks of a team that is struggling to score goals and clearly not good enough to make the play-offs. That was not a top 6 team I was watching at Vicarage Road and we looked like a relegation side in the previous away game I saw at Coventry. The green line will be broken soon and then it will be a case of trying to stay away from the red one.

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