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Expected Points Comparison

TheKitGuy
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TheKitGuy Premier League

TheKitGuy

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Posted

I started this in the Bristol C match thread but believe it might be best for it to have it's own thread. I'll update this as the week's go by, this should give us a clear indication on what direction we are heading and how we compare to everyone else this season as well as teams in key positions over the last 5 years. 

Current PPG - 2.00

Average xPPG over 5yrs     |     24/25 Season

1st xPPG - 2.08             |        1st xPPG - 3.00
2nd xPPG - 1.95            |       2nd xPPG - 2.50
3rd xPPG - 1.82             |        3rd xPPG - 2.25
6th xPPG - 1.58             |        6th xPPG - 1.75
12th xPPG - 1.36           |       12th xPPG - 1.25
21st xPPG - 1.02           |        21st xPPG - 0.75
22nd xPPG - 0.96          |       22nd xPPG - 0.5
24th xPPG - 0.80           |        24th xPPG - 0.25

If we win against Bristol C 
PPG - 2.2
If we draw against Bristol C 
PPG - 1.8 
If we lose against Bristol City
PPG - 1.6 
(PPG = points per game) 
(xPPG = expected points per game) 

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TheKitGuy Premier League

TheKitGuy

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Current PPG - 2.20

Average xPPG over 5yrs     |   24/25 Season

1st xPPG - 2.08  | 1st xPPG - 2.40

2nd xPPG - 1.95 | 2nd xPPG - 2.20

3rd xPPG - 1.82  | 3rd xPPG - 2.00

6th xPPG - 1.58 | 6th xPPG - 1.80

12th xPPG - 1.36 | 12th xPPG - 1.20

21st xPPG - 1.02 | 21st xPPG - 0.80

22nd xPPG - 0.96 | 22nd xPPG - 0.60

24th xPPG - 0.80 | 24th xPPG - 0.20

If we win against PNE

PPG - 2.33

If we draw against PNE

PPG - 2.00

If we lose against PNE

PPG - 1.83

(PPG = points per game) 

(xPPG = expected points per game) 

Edited by TheKitGuy
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Exiled in Toronto Mk2 Premier League

Exiled in Toronto Mk2

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1 hour ago, Herbie6590 said:

I have a couple of mates who work there now under the Mondelez banner of course these days.

Fabulous cricket ground, loved playing there. 

Tell them to work harder, my pension depends on it! I played a few times on the football pitch alongside the cricket pitch, same turf as old Wembley the groundsman once told me.

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TheKitGuy Premier League

TheKitGuy

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Current PPG - 2.00


Average xPPG over 5yrs          24/25 Season

1st xPPG - 2.08               |        1st xPPG - 2.66
2nd xPPG - 1.95              |       2nd xPPG - 2.5
3rd xPPG - 1.82               |        3rd xPPG - 2.16
6th xPPG - 1.58               |        6th xPPG - 1.83
12th xPPG - 1.36             |       12th xPPG - 1.33
21st xPPG - 1.02             |        21st xPPG - 0.83
22nd xPPG - 0.96            |       22nd xPPG - 0.66
24th xPPG - 0.80             |        24th xPPG - 0.16

If we win against QPR
PPG - 2.14
If we draw against QPR
PPG - 1.71
If we lose against QPR
PPG - 1.57 
(PPG = points per game) 
(xPPG = expected points per game) 

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NeilInBristol Champions League

NeilInBristol

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20 hours ago, TheKitGuy said:

Current PPG - 2.00


Average xPPG over 5yrs          24/25 Season

1st xPPG - 2.08               |        1st xPPG - 2.66
2nd xPPG - 1.95              |       2nd xPPG - 2.5
3rd xPPG - 1.82               |        3rd xPPG - 2.16
6th xPPG - 1.58               |        6th xPPG - 1.83
12th xPPG - 1.36             |       12th xPPG - 1.33
21st xPPG - 1.02             |        21st xPPG - 0.83
22nd xPPG - 0.96            |       22nd xPPG - 0.66
24th xPPG - 0.80             |        24th xPPG - 0.16

If we win against QPR
PPG - 2.14
If we draw against QPR
PPG - 1.71
If we lose against QPR
PPG - 1.57 
(PPG = points per game) 
(xPPG = expected points per game) 

This is great 

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Forever Blue Champions League

Forever Blue

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Posted
On 22/09/2024 at 14:02, TheKitGuy said:

Current PPG - 2.00


Average xPPG over 5yrs          24/25 Season

1st xPPG - 2.08               |        1st xPPG - 2.66
2nd xPPG - 1.95              |       2nd xPPG - 2.5
3rd xPPG - 1.82               |        3rd xPPG - 2.16
6th xPPG - 1.58               |        6th xPPG - 1.83
12th xPPG - 1.36             |       12th xPPG - 1.33
21st xPPG - 1.02             |        21st xPPG - 0.83
22nd xPPG - 0.96            |       22nd xPPG - 0.66
24th xPPG - 0.80             |        24th xPPG - 0.16

If we win against QPR
PPG - 2.14
If we draw against QPR
PPG - 1.71
If we lose against QPR
PPG - 1.57 
(PPG = points per game) 
(xPPG = expected points per game) 

PPG so far this season suggests it’s a more unequal league than normal. Early days obviously.

excellent stats though, as Neil says.

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Hasta

Hasta

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Forever Blue said:

PPG so far this season suggests it’s a more unequal league than normal. Early days obviously.

excellent stats though, as Neil says.

Looking back at last season after 6 games it’s very similar.  Top had 16 points (Preston!) , 6th had 11 points and mid table had 8 points. I’m guessing over a period of 6 games at any point in the season the form table would look similar. It’s consistency across the season.

I agree it is interesting to monitor. Nice one @TheKitGuy

Edited by Hasta
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TheKitGuy Premier League

TheKitGuy

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Current PPG - 2.14

Average xPPG over 5yrs 24/25 Season

1st xPPG - 2.08   | 1st xPPG - 2.28

2nd xPPG - 1.95   | 2nd xPPG - 2.14

3rd xPPG - 1.82    | 3rd xPPG - 2.14

6th xPPG - 1.58    | 6th xPPG - 1.85

12th xPPG - 1.36  | 12th xPPG - 1.28

21st xPPG - 1.02  | 21st xPPG - 0.71

22nd xPPG - 0.96 | 22nd xPPG - 0.71

24th xPPG - 0.80  | 24th xPPG - 0.14

If we win against Coventry 

PPG - 2.25

If we draw against Coventry

PPG - 2.00

If we lose against Coventry

PPG - 1.87

(PPG = points per game) 

(xPPG = expected points per game) 

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TheKitGuy Premier League

TheKitGuy

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Current PPG - 1.87


Average xPPG over 5yrs          24/25 Season

1st xPPG - 2.08              |        1st xPPG - 2.25
2nd xPPG - 1.95             |       2nd xPPG - 2.12
3rd xPPG - 1.82              |        3rd xPPG - 2.00
6th xPPG - 1.58              |        6th xPPG - 1.87
12th xPPG - 1.36            |       12th xPPG - 1.37
21st xPPG - 1.02            |        21st xPPG - 1.00
22nd xPPG - 0.96           |       22nd xPPG - 0.87
24th xPPG - 0.80            |        24th xPPG - 0.5

If we win against Plymouth 
PPG - 2.00
If we draw against Plymouth 
PPG - 1.77
If we lose against Plymouth 
PPG - 1.66
(PPG = points per game) 
(xPPG = expected points per game) 

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TheKitGuy Premier League

TheKitGuy

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Current PPG - 1.66

Average xPPG over 5yrs 24/25 Season

1st xPPG - 2.08 | 1st xPPG - 2.11

2nd xPPG - 1.95 | 2nd xPPG - 2.11

3rd xPPG - 1.82 | 3rd xPPG - 2.00

6th xPPG - 1.58 | 6th xPPG - 1.77

12th xPPG - 1.36 | 12th xPPG - 1.33

21st xPPG - 1.02 | 21st xPPG - 0.88

22nd xPPG - 0.96 | 22nd xPPG - 0.77

24th xPPG - 0.80 | 24th xPPG - 0.55

If we win against Swansea

PPG - 1.80

If we draw against Swansea

PPG - 1.60

If we lose against Swansea

PPG - 1.50

(PPG = points per game) 

(xPPG = expected points per game) 

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NeilInBristol Champions League

NeilInBristol

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On 08/10/2024 at 12:55, TheKitGuy said:

Current PPG - 1.66

Average xPPG over 5yrs 24/25 Season

1st xPPG - 2.08 | 1st xPPG - 2.11

2nd xPPG - 1.95 | 2nd xPPG - 2.11

3rd xPPG - 1.82 | 3rd xPPG - 2.00

6th xPPG - 1.58 | 6th xPPG - 1.77

12th xPPG - 1.36 | 12th xPPG - 1.33

21st xPPG - 1.02 | 21st xPPG - 0.88

22nd xPPG - 0.96 | 22nd xPPG - 0.77

24th xPPG - 0.80 | 24th xPPG - 0.55

If we win against Swansea

PPG - 1.80

If we draw against Swansea

PPG - 1.60

If we lose against Swansea

PPG - 1.50

(PPG = points per game) 

(xPPG = expected points per game) 

Great as always. Really helps to keep the perspective 

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  • 2 weeks later...
TheKitGuy Premier League

TheKitGuy

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Current PPG - 1.80


Average xPPG over 5yrs          24/25 Season

1st xPPG - 2.08              |        1st xPPG - 2.20
2nd xPPG - 1.95             |       2nd xPPG - 2.10
3rd xPPG - 1.82              |        3rd xPPG - 1.90
6th xPPG - 1.58              |        6th xPPG - 1.80
12th xPPG - 1.36            |       12th xPPG - 1.30
21st xPPG - 1.02            |        21st xPPG - 0.80
22nd xPPG - 0.96           |       22nd xPPG - 0.80
24th xPPG - 0.80            |        24th xPPG - 0.70

If we win against WBA
PPG - 1.91
If we draw against WBA
PPG - 1.72
If we lose against WBA
PPG - 1.63
(PPG = points per game) 
(xPPG = expected points per game) 

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jim mk2

jim mk2

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Posted

Interesting graphic but it doesn't tell the story that is unfolding in recent weeks of a team that is struggling to score goals and clearly not good enough to make the play-offs. That was not a top 6 team I was watching at Vicarage Road and we looked like a relegation side in the previous away game I saw at Coventry. The green line will be broken soon and then it will be a case of trying to stay away from the red one. 

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