Play off race

[G Somerset Rover]

10 hours ago, Nic81 said:

The only thing that gives me hope at the moment is Tronstad, Batth, Carter and Ohashi are coming back. Replace Hedges too and that looks a lot better. The selection today was poor! 

I think Batth crucially important, not only for the side but for Hyam. Without him Dom is half the player.

[Plastics]

2 hours ago, G Somerset Rover said:

I think Batth crucially important, not only for the side but for Hyam. Without him Dom is half the player.

As a friend pointed out to me, Hyam is a very suss LCB and a very decent RCB. Batth playing that LCB role naturally allows Hyam to settle into his natural position and puts less pressure on his distribution. It's why the Hyam and Carter pairing wasn't as imperious as we would have imagined

[StHelensRover]

If we were in any way well run and not a basket case, I would be looking at our fixtures and thinking we have a good run in. I think our run in is the most favourable of those around us.

We basically need to win 6 matches of our remaining 12, and maybe pick up a draw somewhere.

But I have a feeling we're only going to win 4 or 5  matches and end up "just missing out" on the last day, where in reality we would have needed to win by five goals or something and everyone else has to lose by 5 for us to sneak in, bit like at Millwall the season before last. Looked close on paper but wasn't in reality. Hope I'm wrong 

Edited February 24 by StHelensRover

[Exiled_Rover]

On 23/02/2025 at 10:33, Plastics said:

As a friend pointed out to me, Hyam is a very suss LCB and a very decent RCB. Batth playing that LCB role naturally allows Hyam to settle into his natural position and puts less pressure on his distribution. It's why the Hyam and Carter pairing wasn't as imperious as we would have imagined

I don't think it's anything to do with LCB and RCB. It's when he's the senior CB. He doesn't lead - he needs someone else to organise the defence and tell him what to do. McFadzean and Batth both did it - in those scenarios he looked like the Coventry player we signed. 

[roversfan99]

To be fair, in his first season he mainly had Carter with him and he got player of the season.

[MarkBRFC]

9 hours ago, StHelensRover said:

If we were in any way well run and not a basket case, I would be looking at our fixtures and thinking we have a good run in. I think our run in is the most favourable of those around us.

We basically need to win 6 matches of our remaining 12, and maybe pick up a draw somewhere.

But I have a feeling we're only going to win 4 or 5  matches and end up "just missing out" on the last day, where in reality we would have needed to win by five goals or something and everyone else has to lose by 5 for us to sneak in, bit like at Millwall the season before last. Looked close on paper but wasn't in reality. Hope I'm wrong 

If I know venkys rovers, and I am pretty sure I do by now, at this stage of the season I will be amazed if we win more than 2/3 of them.

Expecting quite a few defeats out of that lot, with maybe a token draw or two thrown in.

[KentExile]

9 hours ago, Exiled_Rover said:

I don't think it's anything to do with LCB and RCB. It's when he's the senior CB. He doesn't lead - he needs someone else to organise the defence and tell him what to do. McFadzean and Batth both did it - in those scenarios he looked like the Coventry player we signed. 

And Ayala in his first season

When Ayala did his usual winter vanishing act, leaving Hyam as the senior man, it coincided with an 8 match run without a win

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/daniel-ayala/leistungsdaten/spieler/78966/plus/0?saison=2022

[KentExile]

9 hours ago, roversfan99 said:

To be fair, in his first season he mainly had Carter with him and he got player of the season.

His partner was Ayala for over half of that season

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/daniel-ayala/leistungsdaten/spieler/78966/plus/0?saison=2022

Edited February 25 by KentExile

[superniko]

In the interest of 'new manager, new hope'.

Here's the playoff picture ahead of us....

• 2nd easiest run-in after Coventry
• Bristol City have a stinker of a run-in
• We play 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th all at Home, all of which are in the playoff hunt, these games are massive, starting on Saturday.
• West Brom have to play Leeds, Burnley, Coventry, Norwich and Bristol City all away
• Burnley have to play all our rivals bar ourselves (West Brom, Coventry, Bristol City, Watford, Norwich) - I guess we can cheer on draws.

 

[Plastics]

What does 1.58 PPG translate to in results in the smallest amount of games? Like finding the common denominator in fractions? Doesn't have to add up to 1.58 exact but as a guide. Obv can work out what results we need over the rest of the season but can it be broken down into smaller chunks so we can need a certain level of results over, say, five games or six games?

[superniko]

2 hours ago, Plastics said:

What does 1.58 PPG translate to in results in the smallest amount of games? Like finding the common denominator in fractions? Doesn't have to add up to 1.58 exact but as a guide. Obv can work out what results we need over the rest of the season but can it be broken down into smaller chunks so we can need a certain level of results over, say, five games or six games?

1.58ppg over this spread of games (rounded)

3 games = 5 points
5 games = 8 points
7 games = 11 points
10 games = 16 points
12 games = 19 points (which takes us to 70 total) 

I think that’s what you were asking but apologies if not 

 

 

[Plastics]

8 minutes ago, superniko said:

1.58ppg over this spread of games (rounded)

3 games = 5 points
5 games = 8 points
7 games = 11 points
10 games = 16 points
12 games = 19 points (which takes us to 70 total) 

I think that’s what you were asking but apologies if not 

 

 

Yes, I can visualise that better thank you. So he needs to maintain Lowe form

[superniko]

9 minutes ago, Plastics said:

Yes, I can visualise that better thank you. So he needs to maintain Lowe form

Yep, Lowe form takes us to 75 points and practically guarantees a spot.

Our current season form would take us to 69 points which I think will be touch and go. 

[BankEnd Rover]

Boro scoring, results not great for us today. 

[Nic81]

I think the next four games in particular are massive for us. We need a few wins ideally to put us in a good position as the games get trickier. 

Next four games (haven’t done everyone):

Coventry - Stoke, Derby, Sunderland and Sheff U

West Brom - QPR, Burnley, Hull and Norwich

Rovers - Derby, Stoke, Cardiff and Portsmouth 

Boro - Swansea, QPR, Luton and Oxford

Bristol City - Millwall, Hull, Sheff U, Norwich and Burnley (played one less) 

[MarkBRFC]

Now we have dropped out, that's the last time we'll see the top 6 for a long time.

[Upside Down]

23 minutes ago, MarkBRFC said:

Now we have dropped out, that's the last time we'll see the top 6 for a long time.

Might see it when we're in League One or Two

[rigger]

12 hours ago, MarkBRFC said:

Now we have dropped out, that's the last time we'll see the top 6 for a long time.

Next Saturday.

[TheRevAshton]

Updated "race to 70 points" table;

Side note, i'm also absolutely sick of Coventry with their annual mid-season playoff charge, after being shite for the first half of the season.

Anyway, the next 4 games are vital;

Derby (a) - 24th
Stoke (a) - 19th
Cardiff (h) - 20th
Portsmouth (a) - 17th

You look at that, and think that a team aiming for playoffs should be getting 12 points from those games... I think Sunderland and Coventry would.

However, we have a team capable of getting bummed 3-0 by a horribly out of form Swansea. This is the difference, I can see us getting maybe 6 points, if we're being generous.

Hopefully the return of Tronstad and Ohashi, plus the addition of our new Gaffer, can make up the difference.

In an ideal world, we win all 4 of those... this would put us on 64 points, needing only 6 points from our remaining 7 matches (0.86 PPG) to hit 70 points. Playoffs would be very much on the cards.

Come on lads, please!

Edited March 3 by TheRevAshton

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

On 01/03/2025 at 21:16, MarkBRFC said:

Now we have dropped out, that's the last time we'll see the top 6 for a long time.

I hate saying it but we are just not good enough to make the play offs. We don’t make enough clear cut chances so we don’t score enough goals. 1 shot on goal on Saturday apparently.  It’s as simple as that for me.

[arbitro]

1 hour ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

I hate saying it but we are just not good enough to make the play offs. We don’t make enough clear cut chances so we don’t score enough goals. 1 shot on goal on Saturday apparently.  It’s as simple as that for me.

I don't think we'll make the playoffs neither but that doesn't mean we won't. I have some friends who support Middlesbrough and they say pretty much what we do about being inconsistent. I also spoke to some Norwich fans walking back on Saturday and they said similar.

I really think the next four matches will shape our season in respect of making the top six. These four games are against struggling teams so on paper winnable but the Championship in general just doesn't work like that.

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

8 minutes ago, arbitro said:

I don't think we'll make the playoffs neither but that doesn't mean we won't. I have some friends who support Middlesbrough and they say pretty much what we do about being inconsistent. I also spoke to some Norwich fans walking back on Saturday and they said similar.

I really think the next four matches will shape our season in respect of making the top six. These four games are against struggling teams so on paper winnable but the Championship in general just doesn't work like that.

The Norwich fans are right. They didn’t  make enough chances either inspite of them having loads of the ball. I can’t see either us or them making the play offs.

[jim mk2]

1 hour ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

I hate saying it but we are just not good enough to make the play offs. We don’t make enough clear cut chances so we don’t score enough goals. 1 shot on goal on Saturday apparently.  It’s as simple as that for me.

 I was chatting to some fellow Rovers fans after the Oxford away defeat about a month ago. We all agreed the Rovers team isn't top 6 material  even with the league apart from one of two generally of a lower standard this year. It's astonishing we're still in the mix to be honest, given the poor form of the past few months but I can't see finishing higher than 10th 

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

1 minute ago, jim mk2 said:

 I was chatting to some fellow Rovers fans after the Oxford away defeat about a month ago. We all agreed the Rovers team isn't top 6 material  even with the league apart from one of two generally of a lower standard this year. It's astonishing we're still in the mix to be honest, given the poor form of the past few months but I can't see finishing higher than 10th 

Given the players we have and the injuries we’ve had to deal with we’ve done brilliantly to be were we are.

[MarkBRFC]

2 hours ago, TheRevAshton said:

Anyway, the next 4 games are vital;

Derby (a) - 24th
Stoke (a) - 19th
Cardiff (h) - 20th
Portsmouth (a) - 17th

 

You look at that, and think that a team aiming for playoffs should be getting 12 points from those games... I think Sunderland and Coventry would.

In an ideal world, we win all 4 of those... this would put us on 64 points, needing only 6 points from our remaining 7 matches (0.86 PPG) to hit 70 points. Playoffs would be very much on the cards.

 

We have won 4 out of our last 15, we aren't suddenly going to win 4 in a row!

4 points at best from them games.

Edited March 3 by MarkBRFC