Play off race

[rigger]

5 minutes ago, Underground, Roverground said:

With the draw at home to Oxford tonight, and a tricky set of fixtures to come I feel that Norwich have run their race. They’ll be influential though as they have all of Boro, Bristol City and WBA to play. 

All below them are too far adrift. 

Lets hope for three draws in those games.

[norwichblue]

Close the thread.

[StHelensRover]

3 hours ago, norwichblue said:

Close the thread.

Came here to say the same 😂💩

[alcd]

22 minutes ago, StHelensRover said:

Came here to say the same 😂💩

Lose at Stoke as they will and this thread can certainly be closed. 

 

[Upside Down]

Should have been closed a month before it was even opened.

We were never going to finish in the playoffs. Venkys simply will not allow it.

[Nic81]

The thread is the race for the play offs, not Rovers’ race to the play offs. 

I’m away on holiday so missed the Derby match, but it sounds like it was abysmal. Gutted as I had hoped we would at least keep the dream alive a little longer. Although I never really expected us to get there.

Coventry are looking good but everyone else seems pretty average. 

[norwichblue]

On 08/03/2025 at 17:11, norwichblue said:

Close the thread.

Open it back up 🤣

[Bohinen1983]

 

On 08/03/2025 at 17:11, norwichblue said:

Close the thread.

Open't thread, cock.

[DE.]

Four wins in a row mean we go into the final game with the largest run of recent momentum, but over six games Millwall have a slightly better return than us (15/18 compared to 13/18). Millwall have also won their last two, so are going into the final day with the wind in their sails as well. Boro's form continues to be erratic, and they go into the final day having lost and drawn their last two games.

Should Bristol City lose on Monday, then both themselves and Coventry go into the final day having lost their last two matches, both stumbling badly at the finish line. They could conceivably both fall out of the playoffs with Millwall, Rovers or Boro replacing them.

If Bristol City lose on Monday against Leeds then it leaves two spots open on the final day to be contested between themselves, us, Coventry, Millwall and Boro. If they draw then Rovers and Millwall could still overtake them, but they'd be out of Boro's reach. If they win then 5th is theirs no matter what. Their final game is Preston at home, and with Preston in dire form (1 win in 14) it's hard to see anything other than a home win. Pressure can do funny things to a team, though. 

Taking a win against Leeds on Monday out of the equation - if Bristol draw against Leeds then another draw against Preston would almost certainly be enough for them to get a playoff place. Neither Rovers nor Boro could catch them at that point, and it would take a Millwall beating Burnley by 8 or 9 goals for them to overtake Bristol, as both would be on 69 points. A loss would give both Millwall and Rovers the opportunity to overtake if both win their matches, but Rovers would need to overcome a -3 GD - so if Bristol lose 1-0, Rovers would need to win 3-0 (not sure what would happen if we both finished on the same GD).

Should Bristol lose against Leeds, not much changes in terms of the above outcomes, but a Rovers victory alongside a Preston victory could see us leapfrog Bristol without needing to overcome GD, as we'd be a point ahead of them.

Coventry face Boro. A win for Coventry sees them in the playoffs no matter what (unless Millwall absolutely wreck Bumley). A draw means Boro miss out, but Coventry would be overtaken if Rovers or Millwall win (there are theoreticals around Bristol City losing badly in their last two games, meaning they'd go below Coventry on GD, but let's leave that as unlikely). A loss would mean Coventry drop out of the playoffs. Boro would get into 6th if both Rovers and Millwall fail to win. Boro have far superior GD to Millwall, so if Millwall drew they would fall behind Boro, whilst Rovers would be a point behind them.

Millwall play the six-fingered ones away. A win would see them into the playoffs if Coventry draw or lose (with Bristol it would depend on their result against Leeds on Monday). A draw is unlikely to see them jump above Bristol, unless Bristol get majorly hammered by Leeds and/or Preston. It would put them above Coventry if Coventry lost, however, as Coventry would have lost to Boro, that would put Boro ahead of Millwall on GD and therefore Millwall would miss out. So basically, a draw is highly unlikely to get Millwall into the playoffs, as it would require Bristol City to get their GD annihilated in their last two matches. A loss will end their chances, as even if a ridiculous goal swing happened (eg Millwall losing 1-0 but Coventry losing 6-0), Boro would jump ahead of them into 6th.

As far as Rovers are concerned - we play Sheffield United away. A nothing match for Sheff Utd, who may rest some players in preparation for the playoffs. If we win and both Coventry and Millwall fail to win, then we're in the playoffs. If one of Coventry or Millwall win, then we would only get into the playoffs if Bristol City at the very least lose and draw their last two matches. Lose and draw means it would come down to GD between us and them, two losses for Bristol would mean we'd go above them. Again, though, their last game is Preston, so... very low chances of this happening. A draw would see us miss out. Why? Because it would require Coventry to lose - and Coventry play Boro. If Boro win, they go above us by one point. Goes without saying if we lose then we miss out, but can only drop as low as 9th (if Boro win or draw).

For Boro, playing Coventry away, only a win will sneak them into the playoffs. They'd also be relying on Rovers and Millwall failing to win. If both Rovers and Millwall draw, then a Boro win would take them into 6th on account of their superior GD. If either Millwall or Rovers win, then Boro can only get into the playoffs if Bristol City lose their last two games against Leeds and Preston, as they would overtake Bristol on GD, and the final table would read either Millwall or Rovers in 5th, and Boro in 6th. This is a an unlikely outcome, but technically possible.

I think I've got that all correct. Possible I've miscalculated somewhere though, in which case I have just wasted 30 minutes of my life.

 

Edited 15 hours ago by DE.

[Forever Blue]

It’s going to be less than 70 points needed to get in the play offs.  That’s very rare. It’s normally about 75. It’s been a poor quality division this season. 

[wilsdenrover]

1 hour ago, DE. said:

Four wins in a row mean we go into the final game with the largest run of recent momentum, but over six games Millwall have a slightly better return than us (15/18 compared to 13/18). Millwall have also won their last two, so are going into the final day with the wind in their sails as well. Boro's form continues to be erratic, and they go into the final day having lost and drawn their last two games.

Should Bristol City lose on Monday, then both themselves and Coventry go into the final day having lost their last two matches, both stumbling badly at the finish line. They could conceivably both fall out of the playoffs with Millwall, Rovers or Boro replacing them.

If Bristol City lose on Monday against Leeds then it leaves two spots open on the final day to be contested between themselves, us, Coventry, Millwall and Boro. If they draw then Rovers and Millwall could still overtake them, but they'd be out of Boro's reach. If they win then 5th is theirs no matter what. Their final game is Preston at home, and with Preston in dire form (1 win in 14) it's hard to see anything other than a home win. Pressure can do funny things to a team, though. 

Taking a win against Leeds on Monday out of the equation - if Bristol draw against Leeds then another draw against Preston would almost certainly be enough for them to get a playoff place. Neither Rovers nor Boro could catch them at that point, and it would take a Millwall beating Burnley by 8 or 9 goals for them to overtake Bristol, as both would be on 69 points. A loss would give both Millwall and Rovers the opportunity to overtake if both win their matches, but Rovers would need to overcome a -3 GD - so if Bristol lose 1-0, Rovers would need to win 3-0 (not sure what would happen if we both finished on the same GD).

Should Bristol lose against Leeds, not much changes in terms of the above outcomes, but a Rovers victory alongside a Preston victory could see us leapfrog Bristol without needing to overcome GD, as we'd be a point ahead of them.

Coventry face Boro. A win for Coventry sees them in the playoffs no matter what (unless Millwall absolutely wreck Bumley). A draw means Boro miss out, but Coventry would be overtaken if Rovers or Millwall win (there are theoreticals around Bristol City losing badly in their last two games, meaning they'd go below Coventry on GD, but let's leave that as unlikely). A loss would mean Coventry drop out of the playoffs. Boro would get into 6th if both Rovers and Millwall fail to win. Boro have far superior GD to Millwall, so if Millwall drew they would fall behind Boro, whilst Rovers would be a point behind them.

Millwall play the six-fingered ones away. A win would see them into the playoffs if Coventry draw or lose (with Bristol it would depend on their result against Leeds on Monday). A draw is unlikely to see them jump above Bristol, unless Bristol get majorly hammered by Leeds and/or Preston. It would put them above Coventry if Coventry lost, however, as Coventry would have lost to Boro, that would put Boro ahead of Millwall on GD and therefore Millwall would miss out. So basically, a draw is highly unlikely to get Millwall into the playoffs, as it would require Bristol City to get their GD annihilated in their last two matches. A loss will end their chances, as even if a ridiculous goal swing happened (eg Millwall losing 1-0 but Coventry losing 6-0), Boro would jump ahead of them into 6th.

As far as Rovers are concerned - we play Sheffield United away. A nothing match for Sheff Utd, who may rest some players in preparation for the playoffs. If we win and both Coventry and Millwall fail to win, then we're in the playoffs. If one of Coventry or Millwall win, then we would only get into the playoffs if Bristol City at the very least lose and draw their last two matches. Lose and draw means it would come down to GD between us and them, two losses for Bristol would mean we'd go above them. Again, though, their last game is Preston, so... very low chances of this happening. A draw would see us miss out. Why? Because it would require Coventry to lose - and Coventry play Boro. If Boro win, they go above us by one point. Goes without saying if we lose then we miss out, but can only drop as low as 9th (if Boro win or draw).

For Boro, playing Coventry away, only a win will sneak them into the playoffs. They'd also be relying on Rovers and Millwall failing to win. If both Rovers and Millwall draw, then a Boro win would take them into 6th on account of their superior GD. If either Millwall or Rovers win, then Boro can only get into the playoffs if Bristol City lose their last two games against Leeds and Preston, as they would overtake Bristol on GD, and the final table would read either Millwall or Rovers in 5th, and Boro in 6th. This is a an unlikely outcome, but technically possible.

I think I've got that all correct. Possible I've miscalculated somewhere though, in which case I have just wasted 30 minutes of my life.

 

Next decider is goals scored.

If somehow that was equal too (it won’t be 😁*)we’d finish above them based on our superior head to head record this season.

* We’d need to score at least five and concede at least three to make this a possibility.  

Edited 14 hours ago by wilsdenrover

[simongarnerisgod]

we`ve been in this position before ,we`ll just miss out then in the summer sell everybody of any value and give valerian nothing to spend,instead of trying to build a promotion side we`ll struggle badly next year,die venkys just die

[DE.]

13 minutes ago, wilsdenrover said:

Next decider is goals scored.

If somehow that was equal too* (it won’t be 😁*)we’d finish above them based on our superior head to head record this season.

* We’d need to score at least six to make this a possibility.  

I think we can file it under the more unlikely scenarios, based on Preston's form, but you never know. There are an amazing amount of scenarios that could play out at the top and bottom of the table, regardless - even more so if Bristol lose to Leeds.

Edited 14 hours ago by DE.

[norwichblue]

The beauty of the situation with Bristol, is that them losing opens a position that we may exploit (should they lose at Elland Road), and them winning threatens Nob End for relegation - which would also give me great satisfaction.

Much prefer this end to the season than the stress of last year 🤣

[arbitro]

For the third season running we go into the last day of the season with something to play for.

It's rarely boring being a Rovers supporter.

[norwichblue]

1 hour ago, DE. said:

Four wins in a row mean we go into the final game with the largest run of recent momentum, but over six games Millwall have a slightly better return than us (15/18 compared to 13/18). Millwall have also won their last two, so are going into the final day with the wind in their sails as well. Boro's form continues to be erratic, and they go into the final day having lost and drawn their last two games.

Should Bristol City lose on Monday, then both themselves and Coventry go into the final day having lost their last two matches, both stumbling badly at the finish line. They could conceivably both fall out of the playoffs with Millwall, Rovers or Boro replacing them.

If Bristol City lose on Monday against Leeds then it leaves two spots open on the final day to be contested between themselves, us, Coventry, Millwall and Boro. If they draw then Rovers and Millwall could still overtake them, but they'd be out of Boro's reach. If they win then 5th is theirs no matter what. Their final game is Preston at home, and with Preston in dire form (1 win in 14) it's hard to see anything other than a home win. Pressure can do funny things to a team, though. 

Taking a win against Leeds on Monday out of the equation - if Bristol draw against Leeds then another draw against Preston would almost certainly be enough for them to get a playoff place. Neither Rovers nor Boro could catch them at that point, and it would take a Millwall beating Burnley by 8 or 9 goals for them to overtake Bristol, as both would be on 69 points. A loss would give both Millwall and Rovers the opportunity to overtake if both win their matches, but Rovers would need to overcome a -3 GD - so if Bristol lose 1-0, Rovers would need to win 3-0 (not sure what would happen if we both finished on the same GD).

Should Bristol lose against Leeds, not much changes in terms of the above outcomes, but a Rovers victory alongside a Preston victory could see us leapfrog Bristol without needing to overcome GD, as we'd be a point ahead of them.

Coventry face Boro. A win for Coventry sees them in the playoffs no matter what (unless Millwall absolutely wreck Bumley). A draw means Boro miss out, but Coventry would be overtaken if Rovers or Millwall win (there are theoreticals around Bristol City losing badly in their last two games, meaning they'd go below Coventry on GD, but let's leave that as unlikely). A loss would mean Coventry drop out of the playoffs. Boro would get into 6th if both Rovers and Millwall fail to win. Boro have far superior GD to Millwall, so if Millwall drew they would fall behind Boro, whilst Rovers would be a point behind them.

Millwall play the six-fingered ones away. A win would see them into the playoffs if Coventry draw or lose (with Bristol it would depend on their result against Leeds on Monday). A draw is unlikely to see them jump above Bristol, unless Bristol get majorly hammered by Leeds and/or Preston. It would put them above Coventry if Coventry lost, however, as Coventry would have lost to Boro, that would put Boro ahead of Millwall on GD and therefore Millwall would miss out. So basically, a draw is highly unlikely to get Millwall into the playoffs, as it would require Bristol City to get their GD annihilated in their last two matches. A loss will end their chances, as even if a ridiculous goal swing happened (eg Millwall losing 1-0 but Coventry losing 6-0), Boro would jump ahead of them into 6th.

As far as Rovers are concerned - we play Sheffield United away. A nothing match for Sheff Utd, who may rest some players in preparation for the playoffs. If we win and both Coventry and Millwall fail to win, then we're in the playoffs. If one of Coventry or Millwall win, then we would only get into the playoffs if Bristol City at the very least lose and draw their last two matches. Lose and draw means it would come down to GD between us and them, two losses for Bristol would mean we'd go above them. Again, though, their last game is Preston, so... very low chances of this happening. A draw would see us miss out. Why? Because it would require Coventry to lose - and Coventry play Boro. If Boro win, they go above us by one point. Goes without saying if we lose then we miss out, but can only drop as low as 9th (if Boro win or draw).

For Boro, playing Coventry away, only a win will sneak them into the playoffs. They'd also be relying on Rovers and Millwall failing to win. If both Rovers and Millwall draw, then a Boro win would take them into 6th on account of their superior GD. If either Millwall or Rovers win, then Boro can only get into the playoffs if Bristol City lose their last two games against Leeds and Preston, as they would overtake Bristol on GD, and the final table would read either Millwall or Rovers in 5th, and Boro in 6th. This is a an unlikely outcome, but technically possible.

I think I've got that all correct. Possible I've miscalculated somewhere though, in which case I have just wasted 30 minutes of my life.

 

Nice one!

I got AI to beautify your text.

 

[norwichblue]

3 minutes ago, norwichblue said:

Nice one!

I got AI to beautify your text.

 

It’s wrong about max 9th I think, because we’re 8th currently. But otherwise looks like it got it right.

Feels extremely wrong wanting Dingles to win final day. They’ll want to get to 100pts, win the title, and maintain their unbeaten at Turd Moor record. They twatted QPR today. Let’s see.

Edited 13 hours ago by norwichblue

[DE.]

9 minutes ago, norwichblue said:

It’s wrong about max 9th I think, because we’re 8th currently. But otherwise looks like it got it right

I think it should say min rather than max, as at the very least we'd finish 9th.

Also the line about us drawing should say 'Any' for Coventry as well, as we'd miss out no matter what their result.

Edited 13 hours ago by DE.

[DE.]

9 minutes ago, norwichblue said:

Nice one!

I got AI to beautify your text.

 

I probably could have saved myself some time by just asking ChatGPT to break down the outcomes from the start 😂 it can access the internet now, so in theory should be able to do that. I might actually try it and see what it comes up with.

Edit: No, it's telling me I'd have to feed it with all the relevent information first. I could probably put the league table and fixtures into a text file and feed it that, but it can't go and search for the info itself.

Edited 13 hours ago by DE.

[Mike E]

1 hour ago, DE. said:

Four wins in a row mean we go into the final game with the largest run of recent momentum, but over six games Millwall have a slightly better return than us (15/18 compared to 13/18). Millwall have also won their last two, so are going into the final day with the wind in their sails as well. Boro's form continues to be erratic, and they go into the final day having lost and drawn their last two games.

Should Bristol City lose on Monday, then both themselves and Coventry go into the final day having lost their last two matches, both stumbling badly at the finish line. They could conceivably both fall out of the playoffs with Millwall, Rovers or Boro replacing them.

If Bristol City lose on Monday against Leeds then it leaves two spots open on the final day to be contested between themselves, us, Coventry, Millwall and Boro. If they draw then Rovers and Millwall could still overtake them, but they'd be out of Boro's reach. If they win then 5th is theirs no matter what. Their final game is Preston at home, and with Preston in dire form (1 win in 14) it's hard to see anything other than a home win. Pressure can do funny things to a team, though. 

Taking a win against Leeds on Monday out of the equation - if Bristol draw against Leeds then another draw against Preston would almost certainly be enough for them to get a playoff place. Neither Rovers nor Boro could catch them at that point, and it would take a Millwall beating Burnley by 8 or 9 goals for them to overtake Bristol, as both would be on 69 points. A loss would give both Millwall and Rovers the opportunity to overtake if both win their matches, but Rovers would need to overcome a -3 GD - so if Bristol lose 1-0, Rovers would need to win 3-0 (not sure what would happen if we both finished on the same GD).

Should Bristol lose against Leeds, not much changes in terms of the above outcomes, but a Rovers victory alongside a Preston victory could see us leapfrog Bristol without needing to overcome GD, as we'd be a point ahead of them.

Coventry face Boro. A win for Coventry sees them in the playoffs no matter what (unless Millwall absolutely wreck Bumley). A draw means Boro miss out, but Coventry would be overtaken if Rovers or Millwall win (there are theoreticals around Bristol City losing badly in their last two games, meaning they'd go below Coventry on GD, but let's leave that as unlikely). A loss would mean Coventry drop out of the playoffs. Boro would get into 6th if both Rovers and Millwall fail to win. Boro have far superior GD to Millwall, so if Millwall drew they would fall behind Boro, whilst Rovers would be a point behind them.

Millwall play the six-fingered ones away. A win would see them into the playoffs if Coventry draw or lose (with Bristol it would depend on their result against Leeds on Monday). A draw is unlikely to see them jump above Bristol, unless Bristol get majorly hammered by Leeds and/or Preston. It would put them above Coventry if Coventry lost, however, as Coventry would have lost to Boro, that would put Boro ahead of Millwall on GD and therefore Millwall would miss out. So basically, a draw is highly unlikely to get Millwall into the playoffs, as it would require Bristol City to get their GD annihilated in their last two matches. A loss will end their chances, as even if a ridiculous goal swing happened (eg Millwall losing 1-0 but Coventry losing 6-0), Boro would jump ahead of them into 6th.

As far as Rovers are concerned - we play Sheffield United away. A nothing match for Sheff Utd, who may rest some players in preparation for the playoffs. If we win and both Coventry and Millwall fail to win, then we're in the playoffs. If one of Coventry or Millwall win, then we would only get into the playoffs if Bristol City at the very least lose and draw their last two matches. Lose and draw means it would come down to GD between us and them, two losses for Bristol would mean we'd go above them. Again, though, their last game is Preston, so... very low chances of this happening. A draw would see us miss out. Why? Because it would require Coventry to lose - and Coventry play Boro. If Boro win, they go above us by one point. Goes without saying if we lose then we miss out, but can only drop as low as 9th (if Boro win or draw).

For Boro, playing Coventry away, only a win will sneak them into the playoffs. They'd also be relying on Rovers and Millwall failing to win. If both Rovers and Millwall draw, then a Boro win would take them into 6th on account of their superior GD. If either Millwall or Rovers win, then Boro can only get into the playoffs if Bristol City lose their last two games against Leeds and Preston, as they would overtake Bristol on GD, and the final table would read either Millwall or Rovers in 5th, and Boro in 6th. This is a an unlikely outcome, but technically possible.

I think I've got that all correct. Possible I've miscalculated somewhere though, in which case I have just wasted 30 minutes of my life.

 

@Herbie6590 Turn this into an article, it’s brilliant.

[wilsdenrover]

41 minutes ago, DE. said:

I think we can file it under the more unlikely scenarios, based on Preston's form, but you never know. There are an amazing amount of scenarios that could play out at the top and bottom of the table, regardless - even more so if Bristol lose to Leeds.

Even more unlikely since I edited my post…

[DE.]

Interestingly despite being sat comfortably in 4th, there's some serious friction at Sunderland. Fans booing and having a go at the players after today's 2-0 defeat to Oxford. Apparently an exchange between the players and fans post-match. Granted their recent form is horrendous (four losses on the spin, five without a win), but still surprising to see such a vocal level of discontent and disharmony with the playoffs on the horizon. Doesn't seem to bode well for them.

[simongarnerisgod]

4 minutes ago, DE. said:

Interestingly despite being sat comfortably in 4th, there's some serious friction at Sunderland. Fans booing and having a go at the players after today's 2-0 defeat to Oxford. Apparently an exchange between the players and fans post-match. Granted their recent form is horrendous (four losses on the spin, five without a win), but still surprising to see such a vocal level of discontent and disharmony with the playoffs on the horizon. Doesn't seem to bode well for them.

when you start losing matches and confidence,it`s very difficult to get your form back,especially in a 2 game play off,massive pressure on sunderland now,i reckon they are going to tank it completely😄

[ben_the_beast]

The only other interesting point is if we do end up finishing in 6th we'll end up playing Sheffield United 3 times in a row. 

[superniko]

(below is providing Leeds beat Bristol City)

There are 81 permutations of various results in the 4 matches (Bristol City, Coventry, Millwall, Rovers).

20 of those 81 sees Rovers make the Top 6.