A Baker’s Dozen, thirteen, unlucky for some. Thirteen games, that’s what Rovers have to try and reach the promised land of the top 6 and the play offs.

Currently sitting on 52 points after 33 games, since the 2000/01 season, on average, 74 points has been the number required, meaning Rovers need to amass at least 22 points to stand any chance of making the top six - that’s a points to game ratio of 1.69 points per game.

Last season, at this mark Rovers had two points more, sitting on 54 points. Whilst the points required to ultimately make top 6 was 75, Rovers ended up falling well short with 69 points after four wins and seven losses in the final thirteen games.

After Christmas last year, given the strong position Rovers were in, I decided to try and predict the remainder of the season's results - it started as an exercise to see if we could reach the Holy Grail of the top two and automatic promotion, and ended up as therapy that even IF results dropped off a cliff, we would still have the fall back option of the dreaded play offs.

I approached from a pessimistic point of view - think about how bad it could be, then throw in a couple more losses. Even with this approach I had us getting an extra 32 points from mid-January, finishing on a total of 78 points, well ahead of the magic 74 average, and the 75 that actually got you top six. Some people who went through the same exercise confidently had us in the mid-80s flirting with the top two. In reality, my worst nightmares were still some way short of what played out - just 23 points and an eighth-place finish, six points off the top six.

For some sadistic reason I’m doing it again. The exception this time is that I don’t think we can make the top six this season - well that was the original intention, but now I’ve gone through the exercise it’s had the opposite effect and created that monster - hope.

I’ve taken two approaches this year when reviewing games - optimism and pessimism. Optimism has us getting 22 points from the final thirteen games and hitting the magical 74-point mark; pessimism has us getting 17 points and falling 6 points short finishing on 69 points, ironically and completely unplanned being the same as the actual final total last season.

To add to the sadism, I’m going to track mine and Rovers' progress towards the mythical oasis of the play-offs so you can share in the optimism, or more likely, the realism…

The graph below shows where we are each week and where we need to be to hit the top 6, or if you’re super optimistic/drunk, the top 2, week by week.

As you can see from the chart below, after this weekend’s game at QPR, to be on track we need to pick up at least 2 points, so only a win will do… or will it? In simple terms, Rovers need to pick up an average of 2 points per game - we could win one and draw one to the end of the season to achieve this, but this doesn’t allow for any losses - Rovers aren’t going to achieve this. So, what we need is somewhere around 5 wins and 7 draws, and even that allows for only one loss.

First up is QPR away - as per above, I’ve said only a win will do in order to match the required run rate, but realistically I think a point will be a good result given the circumstances; had Neil Critchley still been at the helm, I’d be erring more on the side of a win. However, the appointment of a new manager (or even a caretaker) is like Rovers kryptonite; add to that the fact QPR’s manager is a former player and the task becomes a bit more difficult; further add to that the fact their new manager was released from Rovers as a YTS student and was highly touted for the big job at Ewood in the summer, for the club he supports and the outcome begins to look inevitable.

QPR are going to be up for this, as will their rockstar manager Gareth Ainsworth - they currently sit in 18th place on 39 points, just 8 above the drop zone, and know they need to start picking up points now to ensure Ainsworth doesn’t have to contend with League One again next season.

I expect them to be quick off the blocks and Rovers will have to weather an early storm - but recent form of back-to-back clean sheets and only conceding 2 in their last 5 outings, despite changes at the back, shows that it can be done. We also seem to play better on the break, so a QPR team that gets on the front foot could leave the door open to the counter. We beat QPR‘s last-but-one manager, Michael Beale, in his first game in charge after all, so why not?! (There you go, not even the end of episode one and I’m a hopeless optimist looking at hotels in London for May Spring Bank)

If Rovers can get the 3 points at QPR it will put us ahead of the curve with 12 games to go.

I’ll be going through my selections each month and previewing whether I think we’ll fair as predicted, better or worse, based on the current circumstances - hopefully I’ll be focusing on the optimistic side of things and criticising myself for ever doubting Tomasson.

Strap yourselves in!