Lengthy article in The Athletic today on our oncoming 'talent drain': https://theathletic.com/3286731/2022/05/09/blackburn-rovers-talent-drain-from-mowbray-and-recruitment-team-to-brereton-diaz-and-captain-lenihan/ (paywall warning!). No doubt a lot of this being fed to the journo by Mowbray's reps/friends, but always interesting when an 'outsider' journalist at The Athletic takes a deep dive on Rovers. Given the paywall (and I'm never sure how easy it is to get around their paywall!), some summary notes, much of which not news around here, but thought I'd share. Don't shoot the messenger 🙂: - In general, the piece seems to imply Waggott has emerged as the key decision-maker at Rovers... - Mentions Rothwell was going to Bournemouth for £4.5m (not the £3.5m often mentioned). Seems to lay the decision not to sell on Waggott, who wanted to prioritise the chance of PL football over the £4.5m. Mowbray thought he could net improve the squad with the two signings he had lined up as replacements, and Mowbray has suggested this could've corrected our lack of goals/depth down the stretch (Suggests Waggott again tried signing Rothwell to a new contract after, but no dice) - Mowbray had nothing to do with Waggott's hiring, who was brought in by headhunters Nolan Partners. Confirms that Waggott and Mowbray's relations have been strained for a while. Mowbray's agent informally asked about his contract situation in January, but Waggott's excuse was he hadn't been able to see the owners in India (Mowbray calling BS on that, but from what we know of Venky's, that may actually be 'true'... but a clear example to Mowbray of why this club isn't run right...) - Mowbray frustrated by high-quality personnel leaving with inexperienced replacements. Name checks Stuart Harvey, Andrew Mitchell, and Liam Mason. A concern that Harvey could raid our scouting staff. Venus and Park set to leave too, adding to the 'brain drain' (the definition of a 'brain' being stretched at times) - Waggott described by agents/outsiders as 'present' and 'professional', but often late getting back to them, probably due to rarely knowing his true budget. Some confusion if Venus or Waggott was the main point of contact. Suggests making Venus the 'sporting director' was considered at one point (essentially formalising some of his backoffice responsibilities). Venus still taking calls on player contract extensions, suggesting he and Mowbray still had some hope of sticking around. - Mowbray still likes Venky's, considers them 'decent' people, but the geographic isolation and a 4-man board of directors that can't actually make decisions is an ongoing problem. - Mowbray apparently gets on with Suhail fine, although the piece also mentions Suhail's never claimed any football background around Mowbray yet gets 'too involved' in contract negotiations, 'hindering' Waggott, with two agents saying they've stopped taking calls from Suhail, preferring to deal with Waggott. - Financials: likely would've breached FFP without training ground sale. Venky's pumping in an average of £15m/year since they took over. Venky's have been converting loans into shares of late (essentially writing it off), but are still owed £130m, with a shareholder deficit of £111m. Hence, Venky's are keen on promotion, which is worth £135m-£265m these days (depending on surviving relegation in the first year). Venky's don't want to pull the plug on their investment given the resulting 'stain' on their reputation within India's business community. - Mentions BBD valued at £15m, but only a small portion of that would be added to a limited transfer budget. Players don't feel too strongly about Mowbray leaving given pending contract expiries. More focused on their own careers/finances at the moment. - A positive: the junior system is 'healthy' with a 'thriving' recruitment network. Stuart Jones gets specific praise.

I can't recall the exact games, but even before his long shot against PNE, I recall Buckley finally properly connecting with a couple long shots that were blocked/deflected a few months ago. Deserved the stick he got for some of his poor shots earlier this year, but glad to see he's finally demonstrated that he does have that in his locker! And then Diaz with a follow-up goal-of-the-year contender himself... Sigh, this game is putting a smile on my face at least! Brown has had his hands full with Hernandez and Bacuna, but looking okay. (Always liked Bacuna at Huddersfield. Surprised he's shuffled on to Birmingham of all places after only half a year at Rangers?) Edun... I thought he had some decent appearances in the first half of the year, but has looked scrambly and nervous for a while now (including a dumb 2nd yellow...). Ah well. Maybe he'll look better in the 2nd half, but probably deserving of an early hook (although Mowbray seemed to be giving him some encouragement at the end there). I suppose that's part of what you use games like this for...

2.5m views now. Not too shabby... Was curious about this and according to here: https://socialblade.com/twitter/user/rovers, the Twitter account has added about 3k followers since that video was posted (the account's saying 289k right now), compared to the usual average of 25/day. Other comparions: according to that site, we gained about 4k followers during the couple weeks after Brereton first joined Chile in June, plus another 7-9k followers when Brereton got his first two WC qualifying goals in October. Now, the actual utility of those additional followers is obviously questionable... but can't hurt I suppose. Some extended scenic shots from the account this morning. Drones can capture some awesome images... (and high-level shots also hide some of the neglect 🙂)

Apparently the video on Twitter is now at over 1.2m 'views' (how a 'view' is measured on social media is always questionable of course!): For comparison, our top highlights videos, e.g., the Gally celebration after his PNE goal, typically get about 20k views. Certainly has got some traction.

TV money is under 'Media' income. It is something I've been curious about for years now. Lots of criticism on here about Rovers' commercial nous, some with plenty of merit, yet we've also for years been "punching above our weight" on commercial income since relegation. Part of the reason we've been plunking along at ~£15m turnover vs the £10-12m you see from the likes of Wigan, Barnsley, PNE, etc. One interesting addition to the accounts this year is under 29. Related Party Transactions, which previously only touched on Blackburn Rovers Community Trust rent/expenses, but now includes the details of the training ground sale, as well as now mentioning that Venky's provides £795,000 of advertising income. (A suspiciously round number could suggest that's the max the EFL allows Venky's to pump in before it's considered to be on 'non-commercial' terms...). So, that would suggest Venky's is part of the explanation, but not entirely. Given our apparent brief transfer embargo and the training ground sale, I suspect the EFL demanded some more clarity from our accounts this year before clearing us of FFP. It's hard for me to judge against other clubs, and I'm not as in tune to the commercial team's apparent failings as others on here, but there does usually seem to be a decent stream of sponsors trumpeted on Rovers' social media. Recoverite snafu this year aside (and perhaps the commercial team should get some credit for quickly pivoting to Totally Wicked, if imperfectly!), perhaps our shirt and kit sponsor deals have been decently lucrative after all? I don't know!

Was just about to post that! Swiss Ramble with one of his inimitable account review threads for Rovers: I'll give the accounts a skim through at some point, just been slammed with work of late! But one of my first impressions is they're not as bad as I had suspected/amateurishly forecasted (if still 'bad', albeit 'more of the same'...)

On a positive note, Butterworth got his first senior goal shortly after subbing on for Fleetwood Town yesterday. Play starts around the 40 second mark of the highlights below (3-2 loss to Burton. Chapman played the full 90 minutes. Didn't have a hand in any of Burton's goals, but he does deliver a decent cross for a shot that hits the post) And McBride got an assist laying off a one-two for a long range strike after subbing on for Queen's Park FC (I do question if reporting such updates its even worthwhile for a SL1 loan haha, but there ya go)

why was i programmed to feel pain

D'oh. Just realised I forgot to add Joe Hilton, who is worthy of mention given he's seemingly had a decent run with Hamilton. He's held on to the starter's role after initially taking over from their regular keeper, Fulton, due to injury (and, as I note below, maybe poor results with Fulton). Joe Hilton - Hamilton Academical (currently 8th in the Scottish Championship) 16 league starts + 7 cup starts, 9 unused subs, 1440 league minutes and 630 cup minutes, 5 league clean sheets and 2 cup clean sheets. - Hamilton are currently last in the Scottish Championship in goals against, but it's worth noting there's an extreme split between his starts and Fulton's starts: 1.06 GA/G for Hilton vs 2.17 GA/G for Fulton. Extrapolating Hilton's results would place them 5th in GA. - On the negative side, he is now out with a knee injury for 4 weeks. So, he's missed the past two starts.

Thought this was kinda funny. The Athletic thought Millwall's performance was worthy of an article as it was the only time in the past 5 years that a Championship side had ended a game with zero xG (and it's happened only twice in the Premier League). https://theathletic.com/3173258/2022/03/10/explained-millwalls-0-0-xg/ (might be paywalled for you) :(

Thought I'd do another loan roundup (no, YOU should have better things to do on a Sunday...) Hayden Carter - Portsmouth (currently 10th in League 1) 10 starts, 1 unused sub, 826 minutes, 1 goal, 0 assists - Seems to be getting universal plaudits from Portsmouth fans, who are already hoping he'll stick around for another season-long loan. Looking like a successful loan spell so far! - His screamer of a goal, which has already been posted, but why not post it again: - Don't think his little nutmeg earlier was posted, so that's a fun little watch too: Sam Burns - Scunthorpe (currently bottom of League 2) 8 starts, 2 subs, 1 unused sub, 624 minutes, 2 goals, 0 assists - Mostly getting starts on an apparently awful Scunthorpe side. - His 2 goals came in one game. You can see both in the last 30 seconds of these highlights. One scrappy, the other a decent finish: Harry Chapmen - Burton Albion (currently 15th in League 1) Since returning on loan: 1 start, 5 subs, 2 unused subs, 176 minutes, 0 goals, 0 assists - Had 9 starts (+ 1 EFT start), 4 subs (+1 FAC start), 3 unused subs, 824 minutes (+ 75 cup minutes), 1 goal, 0 assists during his initial loan - Seems to be relegated to a 2nd half attacking sub role for his second loan spell on a Burton side struggling for goals Daniel Butterworth - Fleetwood Town (currently 19th in League 1) 3 starts, 3 subs, 316 minutes, 0 goals, 0 assists - Minutes/starts are inconsistent, and apparently played out on the wing a couple times rather than up front. Would hope he'd be lighting up L1 (and he's not that young at 22 anymore), but at least finally getting some semi-regular minutes. Tyler Magloire - Northampton Town (currently 2nd in League 2) 7 starts, 2 subs, 2 unused subs, 634 minutes, 0 goals, 0 assists - I imagine he's simply auditioning for a L2/NL-ish contract next year at this point, but good for him seemingly nailing down a starting spot in a 2nd place L2 side after some mixed previous loans Louie Annesley - Woking (currently 18th in National League) 13 league starts (+ 1 FAT start), 3 subs, 1,229 minutes (+ 90 FAT minutes), 0 goals - Regular starter. Seems to be placed all over the park (I think I've seen the BBC have him down at RB, CB, MF, and LM) Dan Pike - AFC Fylde (currently 4th in National League North) 14 starts, 1,247 minutes, 0 goals, at least 1 assist (can't find a tally, but see video below) (combining his two loans as I think they were only broken up by injury) - Suppose you'd hope he'd be at a higher level this year, but at least getting a lot of minutes as a regular starter. Can't really find any comment/review of his overall play. - Video of a cross assist: Joe Nolan - Curzon Ashton (currently 12th in National League North) 6 starts, 1 sub, 554 minutes, 0 goals, - Seems this loan is actually over now (think it was always only a 'short-term' loan), but got a decent amount of minutes while he was there anyway. Connor McBride - Queen's Park (currently 4th in Scottish League 1) 2 starts, 4 subs, 285 minutes, 0 goals - Always an odd one considering there were earlier murmurs of a (EFL) L1 loan. Now seemingly only a semi-regular at a pretty low level... was missing from the lineup for some reason yesterday.

Was keeping my head down outside of the away section... regret asking the friend I was with (a former PL academy keeper) to see what he thought of Kaminski before the game 🙃 Wilson's a whiny little prick, isn't he... Mitrovic at least seemed to have a sense of humour about his flopping. What was with that chunky Rovers staff member seemingly giving an earful to Zeefuik as he was on his long way back to the bench? Bizarre, especially if Zeefuik's injury is sounding legit. Was obviously worried when JRC had to be drafted in at RWB, but he was actually alright. He wasn't 'good', but a hopeful sign of him finally starting to get his groove back... For what it's worth, the Fulham fans around me were quite impressed by Gallagher. Obviously not familiar with him failing to get his feet right over and over haha, but a welcome spirited display from him. Confused why he didn't start.

🙂 loved that! Probably would've enjoyed it a bit more if the goal-less drought wasn't hanging over us, but I'll take that performance! Ultimately, can't fault any player too much (delighted for Khadra in the end!) Dolan was a beast. Great to see him 100% healthy again. A tip: Every time van Hecke's ballplaying starts giving you heart palpitations, quickly remind yourself he's Dutch and probably knows what he's doing. Baffled that QPR are where they are in the table after that performance. Their CBs were awful.

It'll be my first Ewood Park game 🙂 (Glad I changed my original plan to go last weekend!)

Please do continue, if you can bear it 🙂

Buckley obviously needs to finish those, but I also thought it was an exceptional toetip save from Samba (and it was also a desperate block from their defender on Brereton's follow-up chance, which was really close too). Maybe I need to watch it again, but agggh. Cook surprised me as I lazily assumed he was a fading former PL defender who Bournemouth had just binned off, but he made some vital plays at the back for them. Not as old as I thought too at 30... Zeefuik has the potential to be a fan favourite as it's clear he puts in maximum effort, but I am starting to worry about his technical ability... I suppose he's auditioning for the RB/RWB spot after all, so we'll see...

Soccerway seems to be the best source for getting lower league/cup appearances (and bench) data. They also collect u23/academy stats: https://uk.soccerway.com/players/jack-vale/460620/ Appears those FA Cup/FA Trophy goals were during the 'qualifying' rounds, so maybe don't show up elsewhere. Yeah, I won't be counting on McBride... His PL2 scoring rate halved from 0.71/90 to 0.34/90 as Burns seemingly surpassed him. I suspect whatever L1/L2 interest faded accordingly. Got a start for his first Queen's Park game at least (and it's a step up from his Scottish League 2 loan a few years ago 🙂), but agreed it's a bad sign. I imagine we'll still take up the option, depending how the loan goes. Re: lower-level loans, it's case-by-case, but I suspect it's more youngsters (and their agents) pushing for starts but getting 'found out' in men's football rather than a sudden loss in confidence dooming their development. Maybe you hold out for L1/L2 loans, but then they risk getting stuck on the bench (as we've seen with Vale, Magloire, Fisher) Sam Burns looks like a good example of impressing during a brief lower league loan to help secure him starting football at a L2 side. Dan Pike is maybe a questionable loan this year, but I think he also had some poorly timed injuries (and he's now getting starts every week at least). It's different for GKers, but I imagine Hilton's getting some great experience starting every game for Hamilton, even if it's only the Scottish Championship. I guess it depends on your opinion of Johnson/Nyambe as makeshift CBs, but I'm not as concerned as about our CB depth, particularly if taking into account allocating an apparently tight budget. I'm quite happy with Carter getting another L1 loan, where he's getting starts and apparently impressing so far (looked good when I caught 20min of a Portsmouth game last week), following in Wharton's footsteps. We kept him around when needed to start the year (10 apps ain't too shabby), but he hadn't even made the bench since early Nov.

Magloire was a curious one considering his apparent physical gifts, but you're right about that Blackpool game. I vividly remember Mowbray's body language on the sideline, desperately shouting instructions and probably thinking this is the last time he gives Magloire a chance. I don't think he even made our bench since. Seems he's had mixed/poor reviews during his three previous loan spells too, but you can see that a number of managers have thought they could harness his speed somehow! Appears to be a bit player for his Northampton loan so far. 1 start, 1 sub, twice stayed on the bench. Out of contract this summer, so I imagine he'll be gone on a free.

He also scored in the FA Cup (against giants Pontefract Collieries) and had a goal in the FA Trophy too (against giants Bradford Park Avenue). So, 3 goals across 14 appearances total, plus a few assists. His third hattrick of the season, counting his 3 against Bulgaria's u21s back in September 🙂 It doesn't sound like his Halifax loan was a 'failure', their fans seemed to like him okay, but you'd also hope/expect he'd be a bit more dominant at the level. Although, as you say, he was often thrown out wide, plus still lingering injury issues. Getting game time for our loans in the lower leagues isn't always a given... Won't be counting on him just yet. But we're likely fine throwing him on the bench if attacking numbers get stretched again. I have a vivid memory of Vale cracking the crossbar in his one sub appearance a couple years ago... hope he can get it together. I presume we were comfortable loaning out one of McBride or Vale (in addition to Burns heading out), while the other would get u23 starts plus emergency striker option... Vale's still under contract through 2023, while we have an option on McBride. Brennan with a goal last night too. He seemed to be knocking at the door a couple years ago and then fell off...

Aside from parachute payments, you also shouldn't overlook that Bournemouth have made some major sales since relegation. Even after their recent splurge, glancing at transfermarkt, they're at net sales of £15+m this year (largely the Danjuma sale) and made £84m net sales last year (Ake, Wilson, Ramsdale, Arter...). Puts our maybe £10+m profit on Armstrong into perspective... They've also seen a number of their longtime PL squad head out the door (Cook, Fraser, Begovic, Boruc, Daniels, Francis, Surman), so their wage bill may not be as bloated with leftover PL contracts as some relegated clubs. Their accounts for this season and last should prove an interesting read (for me at least 🙂) Perhaps countering that is they have also built up a sizeable debt load due to heavy losses in their final PL years, albeit apparently with a 'benevolent' owner like us... So, certainly an interesting one to watch if they don't go up this season or next given their longer-term financial picture won't be so bright. Hence, their willingness to spend now while their revenue/transfer income is high isn't surprising (nor irrational!), and probably still well within FFP in the near-term.

Two things that irrationally bother me: 1) Nathan Jones' constant preening 2) Cornick's stupid hair I think he was saying Cornick hit him in the balls?

I hadn't clocked on to Chapman running into the max two clubs per year FIFA rule given his brief sub appearances here + the Burton loan. I think there's an exception if he can be sold to a league with an overlapping season (MLS or the Nordics?)... but doubtful any such interest could arise (and I vaguely recall Chapman worrying about homesickness during his Shrewsbury loan...) So, it's likely either stick around here for the rest of the year, perhaps making the bench if we're light on attackers (like the Middlesbrough game, but speaks volumes that TM would rather have Garrett on the bench and have Chapman play for the u23s when he should be midseason fit...), or Burton takes him back again (maybe still covering some wage, but doubtful...), but doesn't sound like he impressed there at all. Maybe the latter could still arise as Burton appear to be desperate for attacking help... Anyway, always an odd one, and as I've suggested earlier I think he stuck around due to our qualifying offer essentially tying him to us one more year due to Bosman rules. Shame it hasn't worked out, but I can't take too much issue with taking a cheap-ish punt on players like him (and I doubt he's been 'disruptive' in the dressing room considering his lack of stature).

They're a curious one. Had some major (£92m) losses in their last couple years in the PL, debt up to £128m in their 19-20 accounts, small stadium inherently limits their turnover going forward, and they also didn't seem to do a good job commercially exploiting a decent run in the PL (only £11m of commercial revenue in 19-20, pretty much bottom of the PL). They could be on the path to sub-£15m turnover soon (i.e., even below us!) Their wage started to bloat in their last few PL years, yet was still only 'mid-table' for the PL. Where its at now will depend on relegation clauses, of course... Their transfer costs also rose a lot the past few years. However, they made some huge sales last year: £40m for Ake, £18m for Ramsdale, £20m for Wilson, plus various others (transfermarkt estimates net incomings of £84m last year). Despite a few incomings this year, they're likely still at net sales of £20m this year due to Danjuma and Surridge. They've also seen a lot of their old PL squad leave, so I suspect that wage bill has fallen pretty fast. They also got hefty (~40m) parachute payments this year and last. However, that drops to ~£15m next year (and then is done), so these rumours could reflect a sudden desire to spend now while the parachute is still in place and before they return to being a bit of a 'small' club...

Rough to discover God isn't a Rovers supporter.

RE: Middlesbrough transfers, this year is the first year they've spent a decent chunk since 18/19 (the summer they had £40m+ in sales). They had big losses in 19-20 (and probably 2020-21 too, like everyone else, barring Covid-related exemptions), but their amortisation and wage costs have been dropping a lot too (Assambalonga, Fletcher, Ayala, Pears... 🙂) Probably up against FFP, like many clubs (and reportedly on the verge of a transfer ban), but I don't think they're an obvious case of taking the financial piss... Haha, I appreciate that, but I stress that I just try to put together some semi-educated guesstimates! The actual accounts do sometimes surprise... As I said earlier, it probably depends on the interpretation of the FFP cycles, how much 'profit' we actually made on the training ground, and the amount of FFP exemptions that were granted for Covid. My guess is cheap buys (Markanday), loan-to-buys (Zeefuik), and cheap loans are all we can 'manage' this year within FFP, but the Armstrong/training ground sale do give us some breathing room for future years (while getting us out of an embargo this year). But my calcs are based on quite a few assumptions! (I'm also still surprised the club hasn't gotten more stick for being stuck paying for the Poveda loan! Seems like a negotiating oversight to me (e.g. we did send Cunningham back a few years ago when he blew out his knee). Premier League clubs are going to be stingey in this financial environment.) Yeah, think this is a fair summary. It'll be quite a kick in the gut if we don't get promoted and lose all three of the above, but it is looking like we're forgoing some transfer fees (plus the cost of the rest of their wages) by hanging on to them. I'd maybe quibble with 'concession', as I do think we're still tight with FFP. But I think a couple cheap, but potentially 'quality', loans are the obvious/affordable route, at the very least. PL youngsters are always a wildcard, but we also should have a decent reputation with PL clubs by now, so hopefully loan fees aren't extortionate.