Rovers already have one point more than my simple extrapolation had them achieving at season's end the first time I did it!

I believe 15% of any profit above what they initially eventually pay. So 15% on anything above 23.5m. My estimate is going off Broughton interview and our Fair Play headroom. 10m is roughly a third of the Wharton and Raya contributions so 20m disappears...

Just looked at the remaining fixtures of the other 8 at risk clubs. Plymouth appear very vulnerable but my main take was while I expect 22nd to get to 49 points, there are too many relegation head to heads for a relegated club to get above 49 points unless the bottom starts a bloodbath regularly beatng the promotion and playoff seekers. A long way of saying we have to get a point from this one. A defeat turns the Wednesday game from must not lose to must win unless we somehow win at Leeds. A win at Ashton Gate will be very close to securing Championship status because our goal difference is looking ok to keep us up if it comes down to that with just 4 to go . So every reason for seeking a win so long as we lock out at the back.

So low a bar? My hunch is this season will see 22nd get the second highest points total to the 51 which is the record under 3 points for a win which sent us down. I think we need 5 points or a point per game to get to 51 as a minimum. Incidentally, the unluckiest team relegated were Blackpool in the days of 42 games and 2 points for a win. They went down with 37 when we came 5th with 45 points!

I believe Arsenal have confirmed to Brentford they are going ahead with buying Raya. If they don't, Brentford will have both the current Dutch and Spanish national keepers on their books. Brentford! Which is my way of saying Brentford will probably sell Raya irrespective. As for Nixon, my opinions are well known and vented. I suspect we are in for a wholesale trading summer. No we won't be spending anything like all the Wharton cash (Adam is close to triggering much of the 5m add ons) and Raya money but I wouldn't be surprised to see net transfer outgoings close to 10m plus whatever Travis, Dolan, Gallagher, Szmodics and at least one of our two keepers raise when sold .... The challenge will be to do a Brentford and not a Bristol City. Over to Broughton to show us what he is worth and that he can find somebody in Blackburn capable of pushing the send button on time.

Some certainty would but seeing as there are games between fellow strugglers mid week and at the weekend, some certainty wouldn't. We are 16th so we can afford 5 clubs overtaking us to stay up.

Although not a relegation 6 pointer, this is in the MUST NOT LOSE category. Lose this and momentum and a sense of invincibility in defence we are beginning to build will be lost with just two automatic promotion contenders, a play off contender and Wednesday left to come. Bristol City are a menace. They are well capable of soundly beating any team in this division and equally can play like absolute dross. This could be an absolute chasing for us or a three point Ashton Gate benevolent evening and there is no predicting which it will be. Will Eustace rotate some tired legs knowing we are facing Leeds at lunchtime on Saturday after Leeds have the luxury of a Tuesday night gimme at home to Sunderland? Finally, in the availability of Carter, McFadzean, Chriene, Ayari and Buckley- perhaps even Moran- we have squad back-ups the equal of many members of the 11 who finished the game against Southampton. The other 8 clubs in the Casino not-Royale for the two relegation slots have the following midweek games: Tuesday: Millwall v Leicester Plymouth v QPR Preston v Huddersfield (and we know PNE will roll over for that one) Sheffield Wednesday v Norwich Wednesday: Birmingham v Cardiff Swansea v Stoke (which kicks off 15 minutes after us) The Robbins' current form is W3 D1 L1 so this is going to be a serious test for Eustace's men.

Wharton looks an absolute natural at Premier League level. His tight control is breathtaking. He twice came away with the ball with three City players on him and not many can do that.

Was really pleased for both Markanday and Eustace. A bold sub decision which I was pleased to see and really paid off. Moran would have been the obvious choice but we couldn't risk his defensive gaffes again. Hope Dilan keeps his place. He deserves to after that performance.

It is absolutely no coincidence that #Rovers' best four league displays under Eustace have come after time on the training ground. Those first eight were a slog but he sorted out the defence. Last four has been a vision into what next season could look like. -view of Elliot in the LT I would add return of players from injury, especially JRC and the much criticised Gallagher.

Doing my extrapolation for current form plus a bonus 3 points for playing Rotherham, the final table after the last 5 games: 15 Swansea 54pts (they have Stoke H, Rotherham H, Huddersfield A, Norwich A, Millwall H so will have a big impact!) 16 Stoke 54 17 QPR 53 18 Rovers 52 19 Plymouth 48 20 Millwall 48 21 Birmingham 48 22 Huddersfield 48 (Down by a goal difference 2 worse than big club) 23 Sheffield Wednesday 46

I wouldn't want to be going into the last two fixtures without our future secured. Coventry are likely to be coming to Ewood needing a win for the play-offs and if the table is as tight on the last day as it is this evening, Leicester would take the title with a win and drop into the play-offs with a loss.. As it is, perm any 2 from 9 to go down.

Both the under 21s and under 18s won today.

Frustrating that when we were breaking on Southampton we never made the right decisions or played a ball with the right weight but otherwise a first class performance and a thoroughly deserved point.

Would be terribly cruel not to start with the same eleven as at Sunderland with Chrisene deputising if Pickering is ruled out. Equally very cruel on Buckley, Carter and McFadzean not getting starts but at last we are down to only a few long term injuries plus Travis loaned out and we can mix experience with promise on the bench.

My recollection of the game at St Mary's is they didn't batter us despite the 4-0 scoreline, panenka penalty over the cross bar and sending off of Hill for rank stupidity. We never got going against a team with obvious defensive weaknesses. Their first goal was a clear foul and they were very clinical in dispatching the ten men with two goals deep into added time. The Sunderland result has created the luxury of not being at risk of being in the bottom 3 this evening even if we have a bad day at the office and the opportunity of rising well clear if we produce an Ipswich or Newcastle quality of performance and get the balance of good fortune and refereeing decisions this afternoon. Unfortunately, we have Craig Pawson- another Premier League ref so not expecting anything other than another biased performance against us.

If ever a game is shaped by both sides previous match it is this one. Can Rovers carry on defending well, pressing expertly and scoring freely? In all fairness, the games before Sunderland suggested the defending and pressing were coming back to scratch. Southampton on the other hand were controlling their game at Ipswich and still contrived to lose so will come to Ewood with a decent backing and win at all costs requirement if automatic promotion hopes aren't going to be extinguished. Southampton are excellent going forward but their defence is sloppy and vulnerable so we have a chance of making it back to back wins. Welcome back to Adam Armstrong and Joe Rothwell.

That is extraordinary. If games lasted 75 minutes we would still be chasing a play-off place.../

Saints excellent going forward but so vulnerable at the back. Let the guy fall over then toe poke with his other foot. If there is no appeal for the Bree dismissal which looked harsh, Southampton come to Ewood weakened at the back and desperately seeking a win. Should be a cracker

Effectively with goal difference, Huddersfield have 6 games to make up 6 points on us and Sheffield Wednesday have to make up 7 points. I will get lynched for this but Sheffield Wednesday home is a MUST NOT LOSE. Draw that and Wednesday only have 5 games to get those 7 points in and that is assuming we lose the other games. After the performances against Newcastle and Ipswich and the tonic of a 5-1 away win, there is no reason at all that we shouldn't be extremely competitive against Southampton Leeds Coventry and Leicester- play the way we can and by the law of averages we will get something breaking our way in one or more of those games. We are not safe but our road to safety is now clearly marked.

Pleased for Eustace as well as all Rovers fans after that Wearside stroll.

Fantastic performance but great to score at all the right psychological moments too. Worth pointing out that was the first game this season we could get all 4 of Gally, Szmodics, Hedges and Dolan on the pitch together and they played superbly as a unit. Dolan was too tricky for the Sunderland defence and simply having the height and physicality of Gally created spaces for the other 3. Rovers press was exceptional thoughout- Sunderland players will be having blue and white halved nightmares tonight.. JRC and Tronstad look a great combination in midfield and the defence was pretty flawless until we lost Dack when we were really slow getting back to the loose ball after Pears' excellent save. Fabulous feeling after any win but 5-1 is extra sweet.

I got corrected. We get 15% of the profit over the 23m which is now looking a certainty to be paid barring a bad injury. The adds on look bankable the way Adam has started. at Palace.

Seems to be showing he can tear a Premier League defence apart so can do it at the highest level which many doubted.

I am worried but giving Eustace benefit of the doubt. The injury situation only eased recently and even then we lost Buckley and Gallagher. A huge difference is JDT had a mini-worldie in the centre of the park in Wharton and Eustace hasn't. Irrespective of the run in fixtures, I would rather be sitting in our position with our squad than where Huddersfield, Birmingham and Wednesday are this morning with their squads. But I would swap Eustace for Rohl in a heartbeat...