philipl
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Everything posted by philipl
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[Archived] Glazer Set For Utd
philipl replied to ainscough99's topic in Football Messageboard Archive
Did you or did you not read my second sentence? The announcement of re-financing six months ago was meaningless- the first tranche of debt matured then and had to be repaid. Interesting it was re-financed so they weren't able to repay without borrowing again. My guess is that they did a deal similar to the ARSENAL one. But whereas Arsenal were mortgaging future income from a brand new stadium which boosts their matchday earning power by 100%, the Glazers were mortgaging their own purchase. £600m of debt is still £600m of debt and the Glazers will have done incredibly well if they reduced the interest burden from £60m to under £50m a year. Out of interest, which part of any of my posts (never mind "most" of them) was definitively wrong? -
[Archived] Glazer Set For Utd
philipl replied to ainscough99's topic in Football Messageboard Archive
My questioning of the Glazer take-over of the Mancs has been raised on another thread so here is a quick appraisal: The Glazers had a game plan which undoubtedly involved conversion of high priced debt and manoevring the hedge funds but at the end of the day, nobody pays the rates of interest they were doing on an investment regarded as anything as other than highly risky. Their high risk strategy seems to be working as they have had a series of lucky breaks: - Ferguson's transfer funds have been extremely limited but with the exception of Carrick, his recent buying seems to have come off spectacularly well. Vidic and Evra look fabulous value for a combined £11m. - Getting £10m for Jon Obi Mikel wouldn't have been in anybody's business plan. - Chelsea seem to be "crumbling" remarkably easily under the title pressure the Mancs are exerting this season. This is a fabulous result for Ferguson who has spent a net £10m or less over the past two seasons. Had Ferguson's drinking gone to Clough proportions (as it could easily have done), the prognosis for Manc success on the field would have been dramatically different. - The size of the rise in Prem TV rights was definitely not in the Glazer business plan. At the time of the purchase, a modest decrease in value was on the cards. - The increase in global TV moneys has come through the Premiership's brand strength (of which the Mancs are historically a significant component) rather than any spectacular success of the Glazers' much-heralded international marketing of the Manc brand. - That said, the Glazers have again struck lucky with old Manc Beckham turning up in LA. Manc TV will be showing plenty of old coverage of Becks no doubt. However, it is still premature to say mission accomplished for the Glazers. If Man U win the Prem in 2007/8 and pocket £50m, it still does not cover the £60m in interest payments (factually reported in their offer document) BEFORE repayment of capital borrowed. The UEFA rules on club licensing in respect of debts still need to be changed for the Mancs to be entirely comfortable about their future in European competition. The ordinary Manc supporter is helping pay for the Glazers as by the time the 2008/9 season starts, they will be paying close to double the ticket prices before the Glazers appeared. We may delight in the Mancs being hit that way but there are plenty of threads moaning about the price of tickets so the Glazers are no heroes in this regard. The Glazers are winning in their sporting chance but it was and probably still is a hell of a gamble. -
[Archived] The Relegation Scrap Hots Up
philipl replied to RevidgeBlue's topic in Football Messageboard Archive
The confidence of the last few posts will look misplaced if we complete a bottom three run of defeats by losing at Watford tonight. At the moment it certainly looks like Watford and any two from Wigan, West Ham, Charlton and Sheff U. For any other club to fall through the 9 point gap between them and 18th, they will have to go on a Wigan-esque long run of straight defeats. I'd be OK with the three southern clubs currently at the bottom going down but I can see no way Wigan will be good enough to survive. Paul Jewell has a track record of second season up relegation and having no idea how to stop the rot. The only hope for sending West Ham down is for Charlton and Sheff U to have more guts and enough quality than the WHammers and whilst Sheff U have the guts, Charlton don't have the quality. So Watford, Wigan and Charlton (on the basis Sheff U are starting with the points advantage) will be visiting what's left of t'Turf next season. -
[Archived] Mark Hughes - Good Choice ?
philipl replied to Ste B's topic in Football Messageboard Archive
The good thing about the Prem being the richest league in the world is that if Chelski/Mancs/Arse/Lpool call, any Manager in the World will go running. On that basis, even though Rafa clearly still hasn't worked out what the Prem is about, I guess Champs League achievements and spending big budgets well are going to be more important on the CV than what Sparky is doing at Ewood. I agree with jonesy- Sparky is doing a fantastic job at Ewoodand the immediate prospects are extremely exciting. -
[Archived] Should Dunny Have Come Home?
philipl replied to blinddevotion's topic in Football Messageboard Archive
Hughes blamed himself for Ooijer's poor start by rushing him into the team too quickly. My guess he is not making the same mistake with Dunny who is coming from an inferior team of an inferior club with inferior coaching in an inferior league. Bench at Watford probably. -
I just don't get you guys. WHam is the perfect place for Lucash to go- he's not going to do any damage to Rovers' ambitions there. Anyway, thanks Lucas. The posts by RB over the past 3.5 years about you have made your sojourn at Ewood an entertaining one. And you are a very good if rather inattentive footballer. Lots of great moments and some horrible howlers along the way. You'll get booed when you come back to Ewood but it will not be deserved.
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Player availability of acceptable quality is the critical factor in my opinion. We'd look absolute loons if Neill went then suddenly all our full back replacements (all two of them) were snapped up elsewhere. I'd say this season more than most recently, the Walker Trust would open the purse strings to buy. But buy what? Look at Davenport for £3m , Young for almost £10m. There is hardly a raging howling mob outside the JW main entrance demanding to know why we weren't in the bidding...
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Because he wants more cash or perhaps a different player WHam are unwilling to part with. Anyway, if the Icelanders can pay Lucash £70K a week they can certainly pay Rovers more useless transfer cash. This is a transfer made in hell for the Hammers. Watch Lucash go AWOL at key moments, get sent off, and conceed and miss penalties in key relegation games whilst being an "ultra professional" hard working pro. Curbishley is buying relegation with this one and Lucash will be delighted to comply. PS Perhaps premature but it looks like a second transfer "told you so" from your's truly in one week. All I need to do is start posting quotations of myself and I'll be halfway to being a 'drog- perish the thought!
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Is this the first time a Rovers player has been featured without a Rovers shirt in sight? Harrison is quoted on a WHam web site that Lucas has signed a 2.5 year deal. Callum Davidson or is it Davenport is on his way to WHam for £3m from Spuds. Bit of a step down from playing with Ryan Nelsen for Neill.
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Good move for Lucas. Trouser £50k per week, relegate West Ham and walk away as a free agent in the summer.
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[Archived] Should Dunny Have Come Home?
philipl replied to blinddevotion's topic in Football Messageboard Archive
I am so happy about this!!! Welcome home David. Great to see the Notlobbers upset and even better that Bernard Cribbins is distraught. Permit me a 'drog type note but it has all happened as I told you. Note Rovers saying undisclosed fee and BRUM saying £2.2m. Chesh is right- we got him for next to nowt. BIG CLUB probably get the final £2m instalment of the £2.2m when Dunn lifts the World Cup as England Captain... or something equally improbable (OK I exagerate but not by much in all likelihood) Its great to be -
[Archived] Should Dunny Have Come Home?
philipl replied to blinddevotion's topic in Football Messageboard Archive
Independent and Guardian are both carrying the steve Bruce story from yesterday saying Dunn is joining Bolton for £2.2m but adding nothing to what has already been on here. One thing is for sure- the Bolton intervention will have scuppered any hope of pay for play type deals. The crunch comes down to what sort of permanent contract BFS and Sparky think Dunn is worth. Whoever comes up with the best answer for Dunn's pocket (give or take a few K for sentiment on the Rovers' side), gets him. Brum can try to be arseholes about it but it is one thing playing hardball when you don't want to part company (Rovers with Lucas), quite another when you've agreed to sell and the question is who to? Bruce's comments yesterday look more and more like Rovers are in for Dunn and playing very hard ball. -
[Archived] Should Dunny Have Come Home?
philipl replied to blinddevotion's topic in Football Messageboard Archive
At this point in a Dunn thread, somebody from Great Harwood comes on and says they've been down the pub with his grand-dad.... -
[Archived] Should Dunny Have Come Home?
philipl replied to blinddevotion's topic in Football Messageboard Archive
IF (repeat IF) Rovers are serious about getting Dunn (and he is serious about coming back), BIG CLUB are going to get screwed on the deal. Bruce has no option but to say what he has to try and up the ante. The fact that there is no other news leaking out is an encouraging sign for Rovers. Having written that, watch him sign for Notlob!! -
[Archived] Should Dunny Have Come Home?
philipl replied to blinddevotion's topic in Football Messageboard Archive
The Times have reported that Brum accepted an offer of £750K plus another £500K after 20 games from Notlob. This has the ring of authenticity- the £1m + £1m was just BIG CLUB talk. Dunny to arrive at Ewood on an undisclosed deal by Thursday is my best guess. -
[Archived] Should Dunny Have Come Home?
philipl replied to blinddevotion's topic in Football Messageboard Archive
The LET have just posted a piece saying Rovers are moving to get Dunn. With the very sad news about Stephen Reid, this has become a very pressing issue. If Dunny wants to come to Ewood, Rovers are in a very strong position to get him as Brum have now shown how much they want to sell. Bolton could actually prove to be an effective trojan horse for Hughes but as I said, a lot depends on Dunn forcing the issue of where he is transferred to. Chances are if Rovers sign Dunn, it will be on better terms than the Bolton deal. Dunn passed his medical at Bolton by the way. -
Charlton's adult season ticket prices go from £340 (£15 a game) to £580 (£27 a game). The £20 tickets on sale for their home game against Boro are all in the corner blocks- the expensive tickets are sold out. I don't think I am far wrong with my £20 per seat sold yield guestimate. The population numbers I quoted are if anything an underestimate. They are competing with the other London clubs but they have a far bigger and much more afluent population to market to.
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I am working on the basis that John Williams was correct that the average ACTUAL yield per seat (after allowing for child, young adult and senior citizen discounts etc) is £13. Charlton's ticketing pricing seemed pretty reasonable last time I went there by London standards but they don't seem to need to discount like Rovers do. A £7 premium would be in line with the difference in average income in that part of London and in Blackburn. Their bussing from Kent is all part of developing their fan base/hinterland as THE Kentish Premiership club. My guess is there is probably the best part of a million within Greater London for whom Charlton is currently the local Premiership club and another million in Kent. Arsenal are expecting to take £2m per home Premiership game in gate money at the Emirates. So EIT is weeing into a head on gale again.
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More than quadruple actually.
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20,000 x £13 x 19 = £4,940,000 BRFC 25,000 x £20 x 19 = £9,500,000 Charlton (at a guess) 30,000 x £25 x 19 = £14,250,000 Villa (at a guess) 60,000 x £33 x 19 = £38,000,000 Arsenal No Rev, we are not at a disadvantage. Incidentally, I have seen the Rovers' accounts and I can immediately see why there would be no money for transfers this January. The Walker Trust's £6m is plugging the gap between Charlton's gate money and our's. The wage bill last season jumped appreciably. Players on performance related pay performed. Something I recall numerous posts on this MB have been calling for.
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signed a NormoVik
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[Archived] Shabani Nonda Signs
philipl replied to FourLaneBlue's topic in Football Messageboard Archive
Classic example of posting absolute garbage... again. -
Oh dear, where have you been the last 1,000 years? signed, a Vik
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BBC are reporting that Newcastle and West Ham are challenging Liverpool for Neill's signature. Not exactly Barcelona and AC Milan....
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