Agreed SAR. This is an Ashes deciding run chase! Plus the fading light which is the reason for my hunch about an England victory.

BBC changed their minds about overs remaining- still 55. 207 lead, 3 wickets remaining. England have got to make the Aussies really work to get those last three. We've got to push the asking rate for the Aussies well above 4 an over. This is going to be a great finish and I've got a feeling England will win this match.

Well, 196 ahead, 4 wickets to go, 54 overs remaining. Not all over by any means- Pitersen has shown what happens if a batsmen gets his eye in and slogs; its still a very true pitch. It is now into the sensational finish bracket if Australia take the last four wickets quickly and cheaply. That said, I'd rather have them chasing 240 off 40, than 210 off 50. England need to keep their heads and grind the overs down.

Worst case for England, Australia will need 160 to win and one and a half sessions to get it. Likeliest case 190 to win with the Aussies facing a tricky couple of overs before tea. Best case, England find a pairing which somehow manages to hang around for 90 minutes or so withstanding a combination of the world's most hostile quick bowling at one end and Shane Warne at the other. Aussies needing 200+ and starting their innings in the gloom a decent interval after tea. Doesn't seem at all likely. Methinks, England need amazing heroics from the bowlers with both the bat and the ball.

Friedel made two very sharp saves at the end of the game for the benefit of the "Friedel had nothing to do, the games was so boring, I fell asleep." I'm in a minority but I quite enjoyed the game. There was no nastiness, there were good passages of passing play and both sides displayed a level of technique you wouldn't have seen from any club in the old First Division.

These two dropped catches (Gilchrist and Warne) are probably going to cost the Australians very badly. Pietersen is going to take the war to the Aussies now. The target they need to get is going into the possibly tricky category now.

Somehow I think if they are in with a chance of retaining the Ashes, the Aussies will stay out there even if it means facing Flintoff with a bat in one hand and a davey lamp in the other.

Getting exciting as the time for start approaches. If England don't win the ashes today, it will be the biggest set-back to English sport since... ...last Wednesday.

Simon Sharma on the impact of Katrina on America. Apart from Andy "America deserved it" which was an absolute disgrace, nothing on here matches the intensity of angst about the failures in the South reflecting the state of America which out-poured in the New York Times yesterday. I was also absolutely amazed at how the fourth anniversary of 9/11 passed virtually unmarked and unnoticed yesterday. It might have been different in the States but elsewhere it was virtually ignored- and I'm commenting from having read the international press. From a European perspective, Paris, London, Moscow and other European cities had suffered from terrorism for years so 9/11 was at one level utterly more horrific but on another, just another tragic dot on the map. For Americans it was the first time they felt vulnerable at home. McVeigh being home-grown was seen as an isolated nutter who acted rather than the thousands who fantasise. Sympathy for the US Administration has totally ebbed away: - most of us know someone from this side of the pond who has seriously been inconvenienced or worse by the new "Homeland Security measures". All bureaucracies are stupid to a greater or less extent but it takes an American to be an absolute insensitive bonehead and American deference (whereas European anarchy would break in and some humanity enter the situation) to back it up 100%. - unlike us Europeans, Americans don't know how to be imperialists. The military victories in Afghanistan and Iraq were awesome but all the American hang-ups about the War of Independence seem to render them clueless about what to do when they are in charge of someone else's country. - and now in the face of a calamatous but wholly predictable natural disaster, the US has reacted with less dignity and public spiritedness and about as much deployment of civilisation and technology as Sri Lanka did in the face of the Tsunami. - Kyoto and the UN reform might be a side show but it aint smart to be happy in isolation from the rest of the democratic first world who think America is stupid and wrong. - Blair might be a poodle of convenience but do the American Administration need to so casually and unthinkingly humiliate him (and by extension, Britain) whenever they feel like it? We love and support Americans but we dispare of them collectively at the moment.

If ever there was a vindication of coming off for bad light, it was Australia's batting yesterday. Would they have lost eight wickets for less than 100 had it been bright sunlight yesterday having got to 260 odd for 2? There was great bowling granted but it is still a batting paradise. So much so, I would take Neekoy's concession even though it is premature. However, a certain Shane Warne will keep all of us on the edge of our seats in an extremely tense, nervous and competitive final day. Warne will take at least five wickets today- get your money on it. If England are about 220 all out late in the afternoon session. We are in for some of the most exciting cricket in history in the gloom this evening. Just hope there is no rain and we get a full day.

I thought Hughes was right to replace MGP. MGP was pretty anonoymous in the second half and hardly threatening in the first. Whilst not to take anything away from one of the true stars on our books, MGP is still a long way from being a complete winger/midfielder. Bert on the other hand did get stuck in and involved and generally had an OK match. However, we saw the future this season when Bentley came on and the team gelled into a much more cohesive unit. In fact, Bentley was playing balls into the front line which Matty would have thrived on but Kuqui didn't have the speed of thought to get onto. I know Matty got little change out of the Bolton defense physically but his movement was drawing them all over the place- we just didn't have the guile to exploit it and that is down to Savage (who was playing the safe balls and retaining posession), MGP and Reid (who were both ordinary) and Bert (we all know about his limitations when it comes to selecting the right out ball). I'd just add that the Axe had a good game and did exactly what was needed of him dealing with the Bolton balls forward and that Nelsen was immense- as always.

Unfortunately you are correct- Rovers would have lost yesterday had we been without him.

The Opta stats on Savage at half time were stunningly good- way ahead of any other player in number of successful tackles, passes completed etc etc. When Bolton were getting on top during the first half, savage was the key difference in keeping it 0-0. The whinge to poll was about the stupid booking he'd just given Matteo. At that point Poll was giving everything and anything in favour of Bolton.

Decent enough point, Rovers coming stronger in the second half after a poorish first half. Graham Poll had ten minutes before half time when he gave everything to Bolton and booked Matteo and Savage- why? Encouraged by Zura and Bentley, Reid looked a notch below today. Kuqui just isn't a Prem player. Jansen's movement was back to the Jansen of old- shame nobody could get the ball to him. Potential costly comedy moments from our two Australians- Bert falling over the ball dribbling out of defence and sending it backwards to a Bolton forward on the edge of the area and Neill chosing a drven volley (woefully executed) when a defender's lob would have found the empty net. I'm happy with the point but could/should have been three.

The Australians took the light twice when offered. Presumably the light was a factor in the extremely dramatic Australian collapse today- five wickets going down for ten runs I think. Very likely that there will be no further play today.

The only conceivable way England can win this Test is if the Australians get them all out for around 220 and there is very little tim e lost to the weather. I can hardly see England making a sporting declaration which gives them a reasonable chance of bowling Australia out with the Ashes in the bag if they draw!

Two bad drops off Hoggard now- wonder if we are going to pay for this? With better light, all the Australians are doing now is wasting their own time to get England out. In the meantime, England tails are up.

With a theoretical maximum of 150ish overs remaining (call that 130 for weather interuptions) and Australia all but equal on the First Innings now, I guess England probably need to score about 260 in their innings to secure the Ashes irresspective of whether the Australian tail wags or not. That ought to be achievable.

Hayden gone- bit of a farce out there at the moment. It shows the sporting spirit of this series that England aren't bowling a succession of throat balls. Five down- we're in amongst them now. Hopefully we can rip the guts out of the Aussies in this stygian gloom. Cannot see an early Australian declaration as England would immediately take the offered light. Four wickets this morning and Australia still behind the English first innings total. Just about as good ass could have been hoped for.

Waggy, if you read the contributions from Lee in the young guns thread, you will realise how silly that comment is. It is worth pointing out that Jay got a full 90 minutes- albeit being shifted from left back to central defense in a losing team. The other three loanees were not judged good enough to get a full 90 minutes in any of the Championship teams they play for. Quite how that makes them good enough for Premiership starts puzzles me. Anyway, it is looking promising for the current crop of youngsters coming through.

According to this, Bolton are taking over Rovers' mantle as the main Lancastrian challengers to the Manchester and Liverpoool clubs. Nice motivational tool for Hughes.

I know the Scots are saying Zurab's a bit slow and weak in the air. Mind you, some of the Scots think Dado Prso is good and he was absolutely crap in Malta last Wednesday so you cannot trust a Sunday Pub Lunch view of the world. But this particular untried Rovers defender played Shekchenko out of an international match in his most recent full 90 minutes of football last week. Something Todd for sure couldn't do. (I think Shevchenko is World Footballer of the Year again but I might be mistaken). I'll go with Sparky's judgement on this one.

Weather forecast has changed again- showers for tomorrow and cloud on Monday. The sunny days are now expected to be Tuesday and Wednesday. Australia still 96 behind on first innings despite having two centurions with just two days left. Even though its a great track, England have created chances to take wickets. Tomorrow anything in the air has to stick and we'll just have to hope the borderline umpiring decisions go our way. Presumably Australia will have to be more attacking and that should give us more chance to take wickets. Martyn can't let all those Freddie "tempters" whistle outside the off stump if the Aussies want to post a troubling total. England need to keep the Aussies to a sub 500 total to avoid a major nervous sweat. If we can go into bat with the deficit around 100 or less, the Aussies will both have to defend against runs scored as well as attacking to get the wickets. It will be no good to the Aussies getting England all out late on Monday but needing to score at two runs a minute to retain the Ashes. Its all going to be about cool heads and watchfulness when England go into bat.

Assuming a 17.30 start and a full 90 minutes (unlikely), it is improbable that the Australians will have reached the England figure by close of play. However, it is getting important for England to take wickets now if a rearguard batting performance of heroic proportions is not going to be needed on Monday. Given the position they are in and the improving forecast for the next two days, I expect the Australians will come in if offered the light this evening.

Tea interval brought forwards 30 minutes to coincide with the nice weather in time honoured fashion.