[Archived] Glazer Set For Utd

[Eddie]

Well you say "things that have gone in their favour" as if they were totally unexpected.

4 was basically a dead cert. When you have that much demand even a basic grasp of economics would tell you that you can afford to increase the price.

1 and 2 were certainly possible. You can never bank on winning the premiership or the champions league, but United had a good of chance as any team and were the only realistic challengers to Chelsea last season and came into this season as favourites.

3, well we all knew that was coming really. Exact figures may not have been known, but they will have known all along that the deal was going to have to be renegotiated and that, given the popularity of the premiership, it was going to go up.

[philipl]

This is really amusing as football supporters' memories can so easily be clouded by subsequent events.

Go back to when the Glazers were buying into Man U and look at it through that time perspective-

Things that have gone in their favour are:

- On field performance has been ahead of plan and budget

It was by no means assured that Man U would start winning again. Abramovich, Mourinho and Chelsea looked like they were disappearing into a league of one with financial muscle nobody could compete with and the personnel to make it happen. United were one of the rivals-Arsenal were about to complete the Emirates and had a fabulous young team whilst Liverpool were up for sale and could have been bought by an olygarch or Middle Eastern royalty.

- Coming through the two year limitation on transfers without damaging the on-field performance

Literally every big money signing RFW has made since the Glazers have arrived has been a success. If RFW had not improved his success percentage in the transfer market from what it was before, there would have been no double.

- The collective Sky/Setanta deal being more than anticipated

At the time the Glazers were buying, the EU were still involved and every EPL club was budgeting on a 10% reduction in media income, not a 30% increase which is what transpired.

- The willingness of the Mancs to pay 12% per annum price increases four years running and swallowing the forced buying of seats for Cup matches

This is the sad one for ordinary fans. There were always enough prawn sandwiches to replace the decent Man U fans with not enough in their pockets.

And to repeat the point I made earlier. All the prize and media money from the double this year is not enough to pay this year's interest bill.

The Glazers leveraged their past history to take a huge gamble on Man U using other people's money. And the rest of us all agree- good luck to them because as a plc, Man U would now be so far out of sight it would be breath taking. Imagine what Ferguson would be doing with a £100m+ transfer budget this summer.

Of the current generation of owners, Abramovich and Lerner are heroes in that they are genuinely adding to the value and worth of their clubs.

Glazers and Hicks/Gillett are zeroes who are doing nothing but destroying value and worth in their clubs.

[Exiled in Toronto]

I am not saying they are random events and I am not saying they are buffoons- you are making those bits up yourself!

For any other poster I would respond with, 'Well what HAVE you been saying for the last 23 pages / 3 years?' but I know that would only prompt another full-page regurgitation of your ramblings, so please don't answer that! If they are sound businessmen creating success on and off the field, and their debt is keeping them nominally in our league, then what really is your problem with them?

[Exiled in Toronto]

I am saying there is not enough in the ManU "franchise" to generate the money he needs from Man U without also doing massive damage to the rest of football- particularly to a club like Blackburn Rovers.

To come up with the size of cash surplusses he needs, he has to swing TV money away from the other Prem clubs and into the pockets of the Mancs. I cannot see any realistic alternative.

He is gambling many millions on the Mancs not getting turned over in the third qualifying round of the Champs League next season for a start- a call to Ibrox will tell him what that feels like.

Is it that difficult to envisage the Mancs spending ?20m on transfers this summer and continuing to slide? I doubt ?20m is enough to buy sufficient Champs League- quality players to plug all the gaps in the current Manc squad.

Plus, under rule changes proposed by UEFA today, the Mancs would have too much debt in 2007 to be granted a license to enter European competition.

Makes Mystic Meg seem gifted

[S15]

Phillice,

Please can you summerise in less than 3 days what your point to do with Man Utd is? What are you suggesting might happen to them, and how might this happen?

[philipl]

I don't know what your gripe is.

I am saying there is not enough in the ManU "franchise" to generate the money he needs from Man U without also doing massive damage to the rest of football- particularly to a club like Blackburn Rovers. To come up with the size of cash surplusses he needs, he has to swing TV money away from the other Prem clubs and into the pockets of the Mancs. I cannot see any realistic alternative.

The Glazers had talks with the Premier League about breaking/changing the collective bargaining structure- FACT. The EPL held firm. The collective bargaining in the end is delivering a 30% increase but at one time looked like dropping 10% until the deal with the EU Commission was struck.

He is gambling many millions on the Mancs not getting turned over in the third qualifying round of the Champs League next season for a start- a call to Ibrox will tell him what that feels like.

The gamble came off and Man U survived the qualifying round. They got a really easy draw but they had a one in seven chance of facing Barcelona in the qualifying round.

Is it that difficult to envisage the Mancs spending ?20m on transfers this summer and continuing to slide? I doubt ?20m is enough to buy sufficient Champs League- quality players to plug all the gaps in the current Manc squad.

As previously explained, Ferguson hasn't signed a single dud with the restrained spending money so he pulled it off.

Plus, under rule changes proposed by UEFA today, the Mancs would have too much debt in 2007 to be granted a license to enter European competition.

The change in the license rules got deferred not cancelled and as you will have seen this week, Platini was making a lot of noise about the CL finalists having so much debt.

As to what will happen to Man U- they will carry on but thankfully unable to use their current succes to obliterate all opposition because of the Glazers' ownership.

As to what will happen to the Glazers- their economic model is not working and they have an extremely tough credit climate to try to make it work. Profits even in this wildly successful season are scarcely paying interest never mind settling debt and they have £150m of hedge fund money that takes the keys to OT off them in May 2010 if they don't pay it off with interest.

Edited May 23, 2008 by philipl

[Paul]

Phillice,

Please can you summerise in less than 3 days what your point to do with Man Utd is? What are you suggesting might happen to them, and how might this happen?

He's been very consistent about this. The financial model MU are using is very, very difficult to sustain. Vast sums of money have been borrowed to purchase the club and fund it's operation. United are in the position of having very large debt which cannot be funded by the annual earnings. In simple terms it's this, take out a short-term mortgage to purchase a buy-to-let property, rent the property at sufficient to cover mortgage, two years later mortgage deal ends, rates increase while rental values drop. End result mortgage company ask for their money or hand over the property. It's happening all over the place.

United are not spending on transfers in the season / financial year when the deals take place. Although the headlines where "Utd spend £100m" or whatever it was last summer, most of the money was deferred or spread around the accounts in clever ways Philip can describe better than me. The actual direct outlay (money out the bank) was about 20% of the headline total. They are living on the never never which is fine while you have a job.................

As for the demand for season tickets. There is no waiting list. I know a lad who was put on the waiting list the day he was born, that's 1986, he got an ST last year as he's fortunate his Dad can fund the cost. Working in Manchester I know a lot of long-term ST holders, people in their late 40s and older, some who come from the time when you watched City one week and Utd the next. The cost of an ST is doubled by the cup ticket scheme. Many of them share the costs between 2 or 3 fans, and draw straws for the PL games they watch. I know others who are only able to fund the ST because they can sell on the cup tickets etc. and who are deeply unhappy about prices. Several say they will stop going when the kids leave home. I also know several who are Utd fans, Manchester born and bred who never go to OT, never buy merchandise and watch FC Utd every week. That's not much of a basis on which to plan for the future.

Like philip I shall be delighted if / when it implodes. The Glazers represent much that is wrong with the modern game, and it's a shame they chose to buy a club with a magnificent history which should be respected throughout the game as such.

[thenodrog]

The Glazers represent much that is wrong with the modern game, and it's a shame they chose to buy a club with a magnificent history which should be respected throughout the game as such.

Good post Paul but that last sentence is bololox. Nowt but Johnny cum Latelys whose 'magnificent history' before Ferguson turned up / start of the Prem is almost exclusively rooted down to the decade or more between a plane crash in '58 and Georgie Best packing himself off to Marbella.

Edited May 25, 2008 by thenodrog

[Eddie]

What about the great sides they had in the 50's and 60's? They certainly had a dark period, as have most clubs, but they do have a very good history.

[Paul]

Good post Paul but that last sentence is bololox. Nowt but Johnny cum Latelys whose 'magnificent history' before Ferguson turned up / start of the Prem is almost exclusively rooted down to the decade or more between a plane crash in '58 and Georgie Best packing himself off to Marbella.

Yes "magnificent" was too good an adjective for United. I would argue they have a proper history, certainly as long as I've been watching football, which sadly is 43 years, even as a schoolboy in the south we had to put up with Utd supporters in the mid 60s. I feel the club do have a proper history in the same manner as perhaps Blackburn Rovers, Arsenal, Liverpool othe PL clubs have and many, many lower division clubs also enjoy - I've only ever read about Huddersfield's exploits in the late 20s but it's a good example.

I think we have to be careful with Munich. Clearly it was a terrible event but there is a strtong suupport world-wide for United which has grwon out the tragedy; it's tempting to say that is foundation of the popularity but we should be very careful not to "deride" (and I'm not sure that's the right word) their popularity / history because it is founded on the loss of life.

[philipl]

Paul, you absolutely right.

If you look elsewhere, the 1949 Turin aircrash has created an enduring emotional/mythical bond between Torino and the home city that will forever make Juve foreigners there.

The Maltese Man U Supporters Club was founded in the immediate aftermath of Munich and remains to this day the largest Man U Club outside Manchester.

[thenodrog]

Good post Paul but that last sentence is bololox. Nowt but Johnny cum Latelys whose 'magnificent history' before Ferguson turned up / start of the Prem is almost exclusively rooted down to the decade or more between a plane crash in '58 and Georgie Best packing himself off to Marbella.

What about the great sides they had in the 50's and 60's? They certainly had a dark period, as have most clubs, but they do have a very good history.

In the immortal words of Captain Mainwareing............... "Stupid boy".

[philipl]

Interesting blog in the Times.

[philipl]

The troubles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers suggest the Glazers are in financial difficulties

Man U are not in any imminent danger but the folks holding the senior debt of £425m are selling it off at 70p in the £1. In otherwords, they reckon there is at least a 30% chance of repayment default.