The Relegation Thread

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

I can't see us going down now. Lambert's getting enough out of this team to avoid relegation fairly comfortably imo.

I think you're correct. At the start of the season I was convinced we'd had it and I was convinced the Dingles would win both games comfortably. If things hadn't have changed I think I may have been right.

[DE.]

I think you're correct. At the start of the season I was convinced we'd had it and I was convinced the Dingles would win both games comfortably. If things hadn't have changed I think I may have been right.

If we'd kept GB in charge we'd have fallen through the trap door imo. Even with a proper manager in charge it's been tough to get a tune out of the squad, I very much doubt Bowyer could have attracted the necessary resources in Jan to improve us. I think JR would still be here, though. I can't imagine Bowyer being as ruthless as Lambert in shoving him out the door once the initial talks with Boro broke down.

[JHRover]

That is why it was so important to pick up the win over Middlesbrough. Teams down at the bottom will pick up surprise victories like Rotherham and Charlton did yesterday and we need to keep picking up the odd win to keep clear.

Another two wins and we will be fine 46 points or more with our strong goal difference will be enough.

[Tom]

May as well keep this alive.

No ground made on Rotherham after an impressive win at Boro but in reality it's down to one team that could catch us now being 15 clear of 2nd bottom.

A few teams below us but above Rotherham lost tonight as well. Rotherham could survive but not sure who takes that third place

[allanncd]

Another two wins and we will be fine 46 points or more with our strong goal difference will be enough.

46 points won't be anything like enough.

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

46 points won't be anything like enough.

We need to be looking at 50 pts.

[neophox]

Big 3p tonight!

May as well keep this alive.

No ground made on Rotherham after an impressive win at Boro but in reality it's down to one team that could catch us now being 15 clear of 2nd bottom.

A few teams below us but above Rotherham lost tonight as well. Rotherham could survive but not sure who takes that third place

MK Dons or Bristol C

We need to keep on winning and rather looking up the table!

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

May as well keep this alive.

No ground made on Rotherham after an impressive win at Boro but in reality it's down to one team that could catch us now being 15 clear of 2nd bottom.

A few teams below us but above Rotherham lost tonight as well. Rotherham could survive but not sure who takes that third place

Rotherham were at home tonight Tom.

[Baz]

Quite scary that we have won 4 on the bounce at home, and still are only 8 points clear.

On the other hand, Im looking more up the table than down after recent performances.

[oldjamfan1]

Quite scary that we have won 4 on the bounce at home, and still are only 8 points clear.

On the other hand, Im looking more up the table than down after recent performances.

It isn't just about 'still only being 8 points clear' though, the sheer number of teams between us and the bottom three has increased during our recent good run. We do not look like a relegation threatened side at all, and it would take an incredible set of results and an unforeseeable dip in form for us to finish in the bottom three (which tallies with the second half of your post)..

Edited March 8, 2016 by oldjamfan1

[DE.]

Quite scary that we have won 4 on the bounce at home, and still are only 8 points clear.

On the other hand, Im looking more up the table than down after recent performances.

Bowyer's meagre three wins coupled with our horrendous loss of form from mid-Dec through Jan really made it difficult for us this season. It seems like PL has used our winless run to sort the wheat from the chaff and I expect more changes to come in the summer.

Edited March 8, 2016 by DE.

[SoldierMo]

8 point enough?the way we playing should be

[booth]

Beat Leeds and I'll be totally convinced, though I'm 99% there tbh.

[Lancaster Rover]

I think we are more than safe, we have a game in hand over a number of teams in and around us. Whilst Rotherham are winning games and look the team most likely of escaping there are a number of teams who seem to have gone into reverse. Brentford have dropped like a stone, Fulham look in real danger of capitulating and MK Dons and Bristol City have both been down there all season. I think MK Dons are most likely to join Charlton and Bolton, they have a tough run of fixtures over the next 5 games; Hull, Brighton, Fulham, Wolves and Rotherham. The Fulham and Rotherham games could sink them should they lose.

[JHRover]

If we win on Saturday then that should just about do it, two wins would certainly do it.

If we won 1 and lost 10 of our remaining 11 games then third bottom would need to finish on 47 points or more to get above us owing to our goal difference. In Rotherham's case they would need 12 points from their remaining 30 available, MK would need 10 from 30, as would Bristol City and Fulham.

Leeds at home and Brentford away are the ideal games against two sides near us in the table to get 4-6 points and secure safety.

Interesting to see Fulham struggling so badly, they could be dark horses for relegation. On paper they should be nowhere near the drop with the most productive strike force in the league, but goes to show there is more to this division than spending money and having a squad of talented players.

We should be looking to build up some real momentum over the remainder of the season. Only Sheffield Wednesday away of the top 6 remaining so the fixture list is decent.

[Lancaster Rover]

The way we are playing and the momentum we seem to have it's not unreasonable to look at a return of 7 points from the Leeds, Ipswich and Brentford games. Brentford are on a terrible run and both Ipswich and Leeds are very inconsistent over the last 6. a 7 point return would put us on 50 points, pretty much guaranteed safety and looking up the table.

I've just done a prediction table and it has us 10th with 64 points. Bolton, Charlton and MK Dons make my bottom 3 with Rotherham and Bristol escaping by 1 and 2 points respectively.

Edited March 9, 2016 by Lancaster Rover

[Madon]

Not a cat in hells chance we're going down.

The way we're playing I'd be more obliged to put money on us getting into the playoffs than end up in league 1 next season.

[JHRover]

I think back to some of those 1-0 defeats we've suffered recently - Brighton at home, Burnley away, Derby away, Reading away, Cardiff away, Bolton away. I don't think we deserved to lose any of them. Even though we were terrible at Cardiff, Reading and Bolton, we still probably deserved a point from them, and against Burnley and Derby we were by far the best team yet got nothing.

If only we'd collected 6 points from those 6 games which we should have done from our performances, we'd be looking at the play-offs as a realistic target. That's how narrow the margins are in this league. Cardiff, Ipswich and Birmingham are just outside the play offs and nobody is telling me that they are a level above us.

One word applies in this league - consistency. Burnley and Brighton are average sides yet have managers who have the knack of achieving consistent results even when not playing well.

[DE.]

Interesting to see Fulham struggling so badly, they could be dark horses for relegation. On paper they should be nowhere near the drop with the most productive strike force in the league, but goes to show there is more to this division than spending money and having a squad of talented players.

Ultimately I don't think Fulham will drop this season, but it's a huge summer for them. If they fail to sort out the mess they're in then next season they may well find themselves falling through the trap door. They're scoring enough (second highest scorers in the league!) but also concede a ridiculous amount (only Charlton have conceded more). In theory if they can sort out their defence they should be alright, but you have to assume McCormack will go in the summer, along with maybe a few others to get them out of the embargo. If they aren't out of the embargo by the time the summer ends they'll be in much the same position as we were at the start of this campaign.

[sharpysharps]

Presumably they sorted out a new contract for McCormack so that they can ensure they get a good fee for him in the summer. Also wouldn't be surprised to see Dembele move on either given he almost went to Spurs in January. They are in a right pickle really.

[K-Hod]

A word on Fulham as well, they've got MK Dons and Bristol City in their next few games!

[Lancaster Rover]

Most the bottom 5 play each other in the next 5 games, should get a pretty clear picture who is in the hottest water after those games. Heard today that the Holdsworth money had disappeared at Horwich, if true that could see them go into admin and a 12 point deduction, not that it makes a great deal of difference as they're pretty much relegated already.

[JHRover]

Think Bolton have about 10 days to enter administration to get the points deduction this season. Enter after that or still in admin at the start of next season and the deduction will be applied then.

[ABBEY]

Most the bottom 5 play each other in the next 5 games, should get a pretty clear picture who is in the hottest water after those games. Heard today that the Holdsworth money had disappeared at Horwich, if true that could see them go into admin and a 12 point deduction, not that it makes a great deal of difference as they're pretty much relegated already.

Disappeared?

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

If I were them I'd take the hit this season. I know they're battling hard to stay up but it's starting to look like they will struggle to beat the drop. Better to take the deduction now and start afresh next season.

Edited March 9, 2016 by Tyrone Shoelaces