The Relegation Thread

[Silas]

Fair assessment that BB.

Seems about right, but still slightly nervous. 

Annoying that we have to even consider this.

We were so comfortable at one point, players have let themselves down. 

[DeeCee]

1 hour ago, Blue blood said:

Really don't think that relegation is going to happen despite our appalling form for a number of reasons. 

1) There's realistically only one relegation place to "play" for - 2 are nailed on certs, thus minimizing the danger. 

2) These teams in serious relegation trouble are 10/11 points behind us, This means they need 3 maybe 4 wins - I'll go with 4 on the basis that we'll scab/fluke a couple of points a la last weekend. 4 wins out of 11 is decent form and It's roughly winning a 3rd of games which is form that Millwall, Rotherham and Reading have not had all season. Indeed, in the last 6 games only Rotherham have that form and I question whether they can maintain it. (Incidentally had we drawn vs Reading and Rotherham, we'd have an extra 3 point margin and would take the task to 5 wins in 11 seeing us virtually safe but that's another flaw of TM). 

3) There are 3 teams below us by a significant margin of points. The odds of all 3 of them picking up a good run of form is very, very unlikely. Of late only Rotherham really look like they're doing it. Millwall have lost 3 on the bounce which gives the impression they're not going to get the 4 wins needed anytime soon. 

4) There are other teams in the relegation mix. also currently below us. The added bonus is QPR have lost 4 of the last 5. We're not the only team imploding. There's a decent chance that at least one of these teams - QPR and Millwall, - will keep on a downward spiral saving us from relegation. 

5) This division is poor, anyone can beat anyone and if that means that there's a chance that other poor teams pick up points, that's also the case for us too. We've been poor for quite a while and still managed a 4 game winning streak within this, so it's not inconceivable that we can pick up points, as well as other poor teams picking up points. I think we're at least good for a few draws, and another 3 draws would see the below mentioned team needing an extra win to overtake us. 

6) For now our goal difference is still the least worst. 

I'd like to say it's on merit due to quality players, some promising pieces of play and a manager I trust that makes me think we'll avoid relegation. Not a bit of it, but I still think the situation is more than compelling to say we won't go down this season. Next year is a different story though...

Not only hit the nail on the head, you hammered it right home. 

[JHRover]

Absolutely unforgivable that Mowbray went to Reading and left Dack, Graham and Reed on the bench whilst starting Conway, Smallwood and Brereton.

If there were 2 games to go all out to win it was Reading and Rotherham - two weak sides shot at on confidence, two glorious chances to get wins on the board rather than tough fixtures v Middlesbrough and Bristol City. If we'd have won those two but lost all the rest heavily we'd at least be on 50 points and would have kept them at arms length.

Our appalling defeats to those sides - let us not forget the embarrassment of those - 1 win since November Reading and no wins in 2019 Rotherham  - has meant that not only have we missed good chances to win games - but we've also allowed those clubs to put points on the board and get within a surmountable distance of us with 11 games to go. 

To turn up at one with that team and to rest Graham/Dack - that is the sort of thing that is leading me to have serious doubts about this manager.

Allardyce always knew which games you had to win when struggling. You beat the teams below you and if you are going to prioritize fixtures you prioritize those against weaker sides ahead of those against top 6 sides. We arguably lost the Reading game through arrogantly resting key players.

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

I had my doubts in the Newcastle Cup tie at Ewood when we went to a completely untried 3 at the back when 2 of the 3 were Nyambe and Bell.  A crazy idea that meant we were 2-0 down before we got a toe into the game. The players look like they have major doubts as well now.

[Husky]

6 hours ago, Blue blood said:

Really don't think that relegation is going to happen despite our appalling form for a number of reasons. 

1) There's realistically only one relegation place to "play" for - 2 are nailed on certs, thus minimizing the danger. 

2) These teams in serious relegation trouble are 10/11 points behind us, This means they need 3 maybe 4 wins - I'll go with 4 on the basis that we'll scab/fluke a couple of points a la last weekend. 4 wins out of 11 is decent form and It's roughly winning a 3rd of games which is form that Millwall, Rotherham and Reading have not had all season. Indeed, in the last 6 games only Rotherham have that form and I question whether they can maintain it. (Incidentally had we drawn vs Reading and Rotherham, we'd have an extra 3 point margin and would take the task to 5 wins in 11 seeing us virtually safe but that's another flaw of TM). 

3) There are 3 teams below us by a significant margin of points. The odds of all 3 of them picking up a good run of form is very, very unlikely. Of late only Rotherham really look like they're doing it. Millwall have lost 3 on the bounce which gives the impression they're not going to get the 4 wins needed anytime soon. 

4) There are other teams in the relegation mix. also currently below us. The added bonus is QPR have lost 4 of the last 5. We're not the only team imploding. There's a decent chance that at least one of these teams - QPR and Millwall, - will keep on a downward spiral saving us from relegation. 

5) This division is poor, anyone can beat anyone and if that means that there's a chance that other poor teams pick up points, that's also the case for us too. We've been poor for quite a while and still managed a 4 game winning streak within this, so it's not inconceivable that we can pick up points, as well as other poor teams picking up points. I think we're at least good for a few draws, and another 3 draws would see the below mentioned team needing an extra win to overtake us. 

6) For now our goal difference is still the least worst. 

I'd like to say it's on merit due to quality players, some promising pieces of play and a manager I trust that makes me think we'll avoid relegation. Not a bit of it, but I still think the situation is more than compelling to say we won't go down this season. Next year is a different story though...

Agree. No chance of us going down this season. The games are running out - 2 teams are already doomed and there is little chance that all of the other teams below us are suddenly going to go on winning streaks - especially when you take the fact that they are mostly all crap, some of their remaining games will be against teams fighting for promotion (pretty much still half of the league), then throw in a few where they will face each other (obviously both teams can't win). In addition to that, as this league has shown all season even a team that is in decent form can come to Ewood and shockingly embarras themselves for no apparent reason (Hull City).

As when Mowbray gave up the season with us just a few points off the play-offs our season is about holding on for 17th place.

Even if we don't get another point (very unlikely) we'll still stay up.

However if there were 16 games left I'd be a bit more concerned.

It's holiday time on the pitch. The only thing we are waiting for now is to see if Brereton can score before he's made more appearances than Chris Brown... Then watch laughably as some posters here tell us 'see he's brilliant after all'. ?

 

Edited March 4, 2019 by Husky

[philipl]

We are still closer in points to the play-offs tan relegation despite being bottom of current form by 2 points.

I am a great believer that how you finish a season is a good pointer to the next. So if we can pull a meaningless strong run at the end of this season I will be optimistic for next.

Carry on current form to season end and we will need wholesale surgery to face next next year with any hope.

As for this season, we only need two opposition teams having horror games to get us to 50 points and the fixture list to the end of the season for sure includes two wins irrespective of how bad we are. 

[Bigdoggsteel]

I would say Mowbarys comments about replacing those who aren't performing is his way of attempting to motivate a collection of players who have knocked off for their holidays. You are playing for your futures here now lads 

[philipl]

We probably have enough points to survive already.

Rotherham have 33 points from 35 games so simple extrapolation takes them to 43 from 46.

Remaining fixtures for them are:

Sheff U A

QPR A

Norwich H

FLDC A

Forest H

Villa H

Stoke A

Swansea A

Brum H

WBA A

Boro H

[JHRover]

It signifies a remarkable collapse from where we were less than 5 weeks ago that we are now looking at Rotherham's remaining fixtures and hoping they don't pick up more than 11 points from them.

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

Just remind me how many points they got when Warnock saved their bacon ? They were in the coffin then but somehow they got out. We need points of our own rapido,

Edited March 5, 2019 by Tyrone Shoelaces

[Leonard Venkhater]

On 03/03/2019 at 13:49, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

I remember Blackpool going down years ago. They'd never been in the drop zone all season until the last ten minutes of their last game ! After Xmas they were safely mid table.

I remember it was a series of unlikely results for their rivals -one after the other- right at the end of the season..

[blueboy3333]

There is no way we'll go down. We'll get another win before the end of the season. That would mean Reading Millwall and Rotherham would all have to win at least 4 and probably 5 of their last 11 games to overtake us. Not going to happen. 

Next season is the one to worry about. Our team has been sussed and Mowbray will have to make big changes this summer to make us competetive next season. I honestly think play off talk is fanciful with Mowbray in charge. 

[davulsukur]

7 minutes ago, blueboy3333 said:

There is no way we'll go down. We'll get another win before the end of the season. That would mean Reading Millwall and Rotherham would all have to win at least 4 and probably 5 of their last 11 games to overtake us. Not going to happen. 

Next season is the one to worry about. Our team has been sussed and Mowbray will have to make big changes this summer to make us competetive next season. I honestly think play off talk is fanciful with Mowbray in charge. 

He's going to have to make big changes to just to stand still.

(This is assuming we end in mid table (ish))

Edited March 5, 2019 by davulsukur

[DE.]

12 hours ago, blueboy3333 said:

There is no way we'll go down. We'll get another win before the end of the season. That would mean Reading Millwall and Rotherham would all have to win at least 4 and probably 5 of their last 11 games to overtake us. Not going to happen. 

Next season is the one to worry about. Our team has been sussed and Mowbray will have to make big changes this summer to make us competetive next season. I honestly think play off talk is fanciful with Mowbray in charge. 

I genuinely think we're more likely to get relegated under Mowbray than get promoted. Once Dack inevitably leaves and Graham/Mulgrew are no longer up to it (arguably Mulgrew is already at that point) he'll need to make some pretty good signings to keep us moving forward, and considering his record in the transfer market... well, let's just say I'm not exactly optimistic that we'll have a better team this time next year.

[rigger]

4 hours ago, DE. said:

I genuinely think we're more likely to get relegated under Mowbray than get promoted. Once Dack inevitably leaves and Graham/Mulgrew are no longer up to it (arguably Mulgrew is already at that point) he'll need to make some pretty good signings to keep us moving forward, and considering his record in the transfer market... well, let's just say I'm not exactly optimistic that we'll have a better team this time next year.

We may not have a better team, next season. We may not even have, as good a team. But what we do need is a better performing team.

[47er]

8 hours ago, rigger said:

We may not have a better team, next season. We may not even have, as good a team. But what we do need is a better performing team.

I certainly believe that we have a better squad than recent results suggest. Have to blame the manager for that.

[Stuart]

On 03/03/2019 at 14:03, Mercer said:

I think the only difference is Mowbray bangs on and on about his values and purports to operate by them.

Well to me, Mowbray's Rovers are mentally and physically unfit, he can't set a team up, his tactics are bewildering and Dack apart, his player trading is appalling (at least Coyle secured Mulgrew and Graham).  So, other than perhaps values, what is the difference between Mowbray and C o y l e ?

Bit late to the party but Lambert brought in Graham. Coyle just made his loan permanent.

[alcd]

After today only Rotherham are far enough away for comfort. Where is the next point coming from?

[Blue blood]

On 03/03/2019 at 18:10, alcd said:

 

 

19 minutes ago, alcd said:

After today only Rotherham are far enough away for comfort. Where is the next point coming from?

 Not at all. Millwall are oñly 1 point above Rotherham, and Reading are still 8 points - just under 3 wins - behind us. It'd take Reading at least 3 or 4 games to overtake us if they keep picking up points , which is a big assumption. 

Millwall's form is as bad as pure, Rotherham's little better since they can't play us every week. Both stunningly unlikely to overtake us even if Reading - and it is an if - do manage to keep up their form. 

[blueboy3333]

17	Blackburn Rovers0-1	18	7	6	5	18	4	5	9	36	11	11	14	47	56	-9	44
18	Queens Park Rangers0-0	18	8	3	7	18	4	4	10	36	12	7	17	42	55	-13	43
19	Reading3-2	18	6	4	8	18	2	8	8	36	8	12	16	40	53	-13	36
20	Wigan Athletic2-3	18	8	6	4	18	1	3	14	36	9	9	18	36	52	-16	36
21	Millwall1-2	18	6	6	6	18	2	4	12	36	8	10	18	39	55	-16	34
22	Rotherham United0-2	18	6	8	4	18	0	7	11	36	6	15	15	37	58	-21	33
23	Bolton Wanderers2-1	18	4	4	10	18	3	4	11	36	7	8	21	24	56	-32	29
24	Ipswich Town1-1	18	2	9	7	18	1	4	13	36	3	13	20	28	60	-32	22

[blueboy3333]

Lose to Wigan...….and Rotherham, Reading and Millwall also pick up a couple of wins from somewhere soon and it may start to get worrying. 

Beat Wigan and we're pretty much safe I'd imagine. I think we're safe now TBH. 

Edited March 9, 2019 by blueboy3333

[JHRover]

Fail to beat Wigan, assuming we don't pull out unlikely wins at Wednesday or Villa, and we're in deep trouble.

Wigan at home should be the ideal fixture. They've won 1 away all season and that was way back in August or September. 

My worry is Wigan have threatened to turn it around. They led at Derby midweek and Reading today before losing both late on. They'll be fuming and will be looking over their shoulders. We don't have the ability to come from behind as those others have done.

[MarkBRFC]

More chance of Brereton getting a 1st team goal this season than us going down, it's just not going to happen.

Next season is a huge concern though.

[Husky]

I don't think it's going to happen but just for fun and interest I had a bit of a go at taking the very worst case scenario of us losing every single game and predicting all the other teams results (being a bit kind in some cases) and I still have us surving by a point.

QPR 53

Wigan 46

Reading 44

Millwall 44

Rovers 44

----------------

Rotherham 43

Bolton 42

Ipswich 27

 

Breathe........Give the kids a go. FFS!

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

It'll be a funny old season if we stay up with a lot less points than we were relegated with the last time we were in this division !