Loan Window

[dingles staying down 4ever]

9 hours ago, Ewood Ace said:

Wouldn't say that Dack was a one season wonder before he came here but even if he was that is still one season more than Brereton and at less than 1/8th of the price.

When we signed Dack some Rovers fans said it. Dack had had a terrible season for Gillingham after winning the league 1 player of ther year the year previously.

The amount is irrelevant the principal was the same in that it was the majority of a budget that many said was not there.

[dingles staying down 4ever]

9 hours ago, Stuart said:

A player barely any of us would have suggested as a target two weeks ago and who is a definite gamble (and can’t get into Forest’s First XI) is suddenly an £8m investment to make £20m sale. Be honest that’s a bit of a stretch.

There is better value out there if you have the money to spend - which everyone believes we do...

McGinn to Villa, £3m

Marriott to Derby, £3m

Waghorn to Derby, £5m

Bamford to Leeds, £7m

Grabban to Forest, £6m

Baldack to Reading, £3.5m

People are getting a little carried away at the whiff of cash and want to ignore the Venkys history that the “doom mongers” (ha!) are cautious of.

So because no one on here was naming him as a target then we shouldn't looking?

Waghorn? There were many on here were horrifed we were looking at, now you are giving him as an example of someone of better value

We looked at McGinn we were blasted out of the water by Villa on wages and it is possible we looked at Bamford with the same out come. Looks like they are spending less on fees but higher on wages. At the end of the player's contract the outlay will have been the same or even higher. High earning players have cost this club dear in the past and it does appear we have a rigid wage structure in place.

Grabban could get you goals but £ 6 million for a 30 year old is a gamble. If he fires Forest up then its money well spent what happens if Forest don't go up? Will there any chance of getting back on a 31 year old?

Marriott and Baldack time will tell and do look good value compared to Bereton.

The price we are looking at does look steep and I'm very aware of recent history but if Venky's were to pull the plug again it does not matter if the money has spent on one, two, three or four players it will still be pulled and we'd still be in debt.

I'm not a huge fan of Mowbray because of his over cautious approach at times. At times during the summer it appears it has cost us in the transfer market. It seems very strange that he has gone out on a limb on this one player. Why?

Edited August 19, 2018 by dingles staying down 4ever

[Ossydave]

9 hours ago, chaddyrovers said:

I would guess(yes a guess) that Brereton is on around 5k wage at Forest. I would be signing Brereton to 5 years contract on 12k to 14k per year. 

Lewis Grabban I would guess at Bournemouth he was on 30k a week so how much drop would he have taken to join Forest. 

On Waghorn, How much is he on Derby I don't know. maybe 15 to 20k a week at guess

You cannot be serious with this, dear lord

[dingles staying down 4ever]

9 hours ago, chaddyrovers said:

I would guess(yes a guess) that Brereton is on around 5k wage at Forest. I would be signing Brereton to 5 years contract on 12k to 14k per year. 

 

Even us Rovers fans who love the club wont join for those wages Chaddy

[Jim Royle]

The strategy of backing potential I find much more exciting than buying experienced journey men who have reached their peak and will therefore decrease in value.

TM has done that with Raya, Lenihan, Nyambe, Dack. Because he has a nucleus of experience with Charlie, Graham, Benno, Evans and sees filling the rest with young talent.

That works for me, and whilst he should have limits on the price he pays, I can see the logic.

This just could be a very exciting period of time for rovers fans.

[Paul Mani]

10 hours ago, Stuart said:

Brereton will cost £8m plus wages - which are usually commensurate with the transfer fee.

Surely Grabban wouldn’t be earning £500k per year more than Brereton will want? (For a four year deal).

Or £750k per year more than Waghorn?

Not the case. Wages are not linked to the transfer fee. Wages are grown usually with success over time and / or grow significantly when the Premier League touches them. So most young players are on relatively low wages unless they’ve played for a PL club.

10 hours ago, Mattyblue said:

An 8 million signing on a five year deal would accept 12-14k?

come on!

Yes. 100%

The wages debate is a big one. Bamford, Waghorn etc will be earning £30-40k PW now...top earners at our place now £20k? Brereton offered £10-15k over 5yr contract is a great offer for him.

[Paul Mani]

10 hours ago, Stuart said:

Fair dos and an honest reply - appreciated. Using your guesses then but I’m not giving you 5 years, you can have 4 - the same as Grabban got at Forest and one more year than Waghorn got at Derby.

Brereton £13k per for 4 years + £8m = £10.7m

Waghorn £17.5k pw for 4 year + £5m =  £8.6m

Grabban £30k pw for 4 years + £6m = £12.2m

So Grabban is £1.5m per year more than Brereton and Waghorn £2m cheaper!

Not sure an unproven Brereton represents value for money in comparison.

I think people are just desperate for Venkys to splash the cash. I actually hope they do but on the right player(s). Brereton could be a success. The next Shearer. A £20m future sale. But it’s a big gamble and there are or were better options.

There’s two ways you’re out here. Firstly Waghorn and Grabban will likely be on much more (30-40k) but I appreciate you we’re responding to another post. 

Second and most importantly you missed out the potential resale value of all those players. So let’s assume all three in your example have a decent season. 15 goals in all comps, team lose in the playoffs) Based on their ages, Waghorn and Grabban are the same value. Realistically they’re only going to be sold for the same or a touch more if they go up. However put a young player like Brereton or Gallagher on there and their value is ticking upwards constantly.

If all three players had poor seasons the depreciation is still quicker on the older models.

If those three were able to have fantastic seasons scoring 25 goals firing their respective teams into the PL then again then the likes of Brereton would be worth £30m (Grealish & sessegnon) money. Whilst you’d still not get much more for Waghorn and Grabban who are now considered ‘Championship’ strikers.

the guaranteed resale value adds further weight as Waghorn and Grabban won’t be worth a carrot in 4yrs regardless of their successes between now and then. As they’ll be deemed too old / ageing. Unlike a 23yr Old Brereton.

Brereton at £8m + smaller wages + an increased potential of a) getting your money back or b) turning a significant profit. As long as you trust your judgement. Which the manager obv does. 

[Paul Mani]

35 minutes ago, Jim Royle said:

The strategy of backing potential I find much more exciting than buying experienced journey men who have reached their peak and will therefore decrease in value.

TM has done that with Raya, Lenihan, Nyambe, Dack. Because he has a nucleus of experience with Charlie, Graham, Benno, Evans and sees filling the rest with young talent.

That works for me, and whilst he should have limits on the price he pays, I can see the logic.

This just could be a very exciting period of time for rovers fans.

I agree he backs himself over the long term. It’d be much safer for him to buy tried and tested looking at the picture short term (Eg Murphy, Etuhu, Best etc) 

[Lee0r]

Today’s report taken from The Sun. 

http://www.hitc.com/en-gb/2018/08/19/report-ben-brereton-transfer-held-up-as-blackburn-rovers-and-not/

 

 

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

We're not buying a picture to hang on the wall here. We're looking to strengthen the team with a view to staying in this division and possibly even vying for a play off position. Watching the video this lad likes to play out wide yet he's not a winger. He very rarely appears in a central position so he's not a centre forward. In that video I don't recall seeing him win challenged headers or even scoring a headed goal. What does he bring to the party that Armstrong doesn't ? The way we're set up to play I can't see us fitting both of Armstrong and this lad in the same team, anymore than I can see Armstrong and Gallagher in the same team.

Maybe his fan club can educate me as to a possible line up with him in it ?

I'd be delighted if we had real money to spend but I'd expect it to be spent in a sensible fashion and not a speculative gamble. We've got enough experience in the team, if we have got some money we want the sort of up and coming players that are emerging in this division. The Lenehans and Dacks of other teams.

 

Edited August 19, 2018 by Tyrone Shoelaces

[Stuart]

10 minutes ago, Paul Mani said:

There’s two ways you’re out here. Firstly Waghorn and Grabban will likely be on much more (30-40k) but I appreciate you we’re responding to another post. 

Second and most importantly you missed out the potential resale value of all those players. So let’s assume all three in your example have a decent season. 15 goals in all comps, team lose in the playoffs) Based on their ages, Waghorn and Grabban are the same value. Realistically they’re only going to be sold for the same or a touch more if they go up. However put a young player like Brereton or Gallagher on there and their value is ticking upwards constantly.

If all three players had poor seasons the depreciation is still quicker on the older models.

If those three were able to have fantastic seasons scoring 25 goals firing their respective teams into the PL then again then the likes of Brereton would be worth £30m (Grealish & sessegnon) money. Whilst you’d still not get much more for Waghorn and Grabban who are now considered ‘Championship’ strikers.

the guaranteed resale value adds further weight as Waghorn and Grabban won’t be worth a carrot in 4yrs regardless of their successes between now and then. As they’ll be deemed too old / ageing. Unlike a 23yr Old Brereton.

Brereton at £8m + smaller wages + an increased potential of a) getting your money back or b) turning a significant profit. As long as you trust your judgement. Which the manager obv does. 

“Guaranteed resale value”? Nothing is guaranteed. Brereton will also want an improved wage. The more people try to justify gambling £8m on one unproven player the more I think we shouldn’t.

The main argument being made for signing this lad is that his value will increase massively. This is sales patter and the kind of argument put forward as a reason for buying the huge prospect, 22yo David Goodwillie. He cost £2.8m. (At the same time 26yo Danny Graham moved to Swansea for £3.5m. 27yo Beckford to Leicester, £3m). Goodwillie’s career didn’t quite work out as planned.

If we didn’t have this supposed budget of £8m and this hadn’t been leaked nobody would be contemplating this one. In fact, the same people would have (because they have) been rubbishing any demands to spend such money “because of FFP” and “Mowbray wants to build the team properly” (something he is quoted as saying) and loads of other reasons - because they have all been used in the past. All things I’m saying about this £8m would have been said. Suddenly because of recent budget rumours and the #trusttony movement it’s a no-brainer.

Some posters are starting to sound like a child trying to convince his parents that he “really needs” an iPhone X for his 11th birthday simply because his dad happened to have a wander round the Apple Store!

[islander200]

46 minutes ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

We're not buying a picture to hang on the wall here. We're looking to strengthen the team with a view to staying in this division and possibly even vying for a play off position. Watching the video this lad likes to play out wide yet he's not a winger. He very rarely appears in a central position so he's not a centre forward. In that video I don't recall seeing him win challenged headers or even scoring a headed goal. What does he bring to the party that Armstrong doesn't ? The way we're set up to play I can't see us fitting both of Armstrong and this lad in the same team, anymore than I can see Armstrong and Gallagher in the same team.

Maybe his fan club can educate me as to a possible line up with him in it ?

I'd be delighted if we had real money to spend but I'd expect it to be spent in a sensible fashion and not a speculative gamble. We've got enough experience in the team, if we have got some money we want the sort of up and coming players that are emerging in this division. The Lenehans and Dacks of other teams.

 

You haven't seen him play a full match.You are watching video highlights you can't come to the conclusion he isn't a centre forward off that.

He is 19 years old has played 57 matches and been involved in 16 goals.That is not bad going.

He plays as a C.F for England. 

The manager has obviously chosen Brereton as the one he wants and personally i find his potential signing exciting.

[DE.]

I don't know much about Brereton but in all honesty if we have £8m to spend I'd rather we bring in a couple of players with that money to strengthen the CB/DM/Wing positions than spend it all on one youngster with potential. I appreciate the resale value argument but my main concern as a fan is having the strongest team possible, not looking to sell the player in the future for more money than we bought him for. I'm happy to leave that side of things to the number crunchers at the club. We went down the resale value route before under Bowyer and ultimately we made money on most of Bowyer's signings but also ended up relegated after Venky's pulled the plug on funding the club. There's no guarantee they won't do the same again in the near future so I'd rather have as strong of a team as possible and I still think we're a bit weak in terms of squad depth.

That said I'm not going to be complaining if Brereton comes in. I'd just personally prefer the money, if it is there, to be spent in a different way.

[Stuart]

10 minutes ago, islander200 said:

He plays as a C.F for England. 

He has only played for England U19s and not even yet the U21s. If he is so good in the Championship, why can’t he get into Forest’s first team. 

If we sign him for £8m then he is going to have to be a first team starter every week and be scoring from day one.

That’s a big leap.

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

18 minutes ago, islander200 said:

You haven't seen him play a full match.You are watching video highlights you can't come to the conclusion he isn't a centre forward off that.

He is 19 years old has played 57 matches and been involved in 16 goals.That is not bad going.

He plays as a C.F for England. 

The manager has obviously chosen Brereton as the one he wants and personally i find his potential signing exciting.

So when we sign him you'd expect him to play at centre forward for us then ?

[blueboy3333]

 If Mowbray wants to splash £8m on a striker I'm all for it. I'd like to watch the best possible players in a Rovers shirt. He's said he wants a couple of others too (CB & CM acc to Sharpe) so there is obviously enough money to go round. I'm delighted Venkies are backing him.

[RovingRover]

Reading the Sun (with asbestos gloves and glasses), it would seem that a core fee has been agreed between Rovers and Forest for Brereton.

Completion of loan transfer with a view being held up by Nottingham Forest arguing for numerous sell on fees at the time Rovers come to sell the player in the future.

[roversinmyblood]

15 minutes ago, callumrovers said:

Where's the ignore option? Some of the drivel on here makes me depressed. 

Hi are we still interested in Maddison?

[islander200]

2 minutes ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

So when we sign him you'd expect him to play at centre forward for us then ?

Maybe not initially but eventually yes.Mowbray has identified Brereton as the player he wants, am happy to back Mowbray on that.

Not dismissing that 8 million would be a hefty fee and it could be spent spread out on other areas but Mowbray has already said other players are being targetted, I don't believe it will be Brereton and nobody else brought in

[blueboy3333]

Just now, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

So when we sign him you'd expect him to play at centre forward for us then ?

Anywhere across the front line, a bit like Armstrong. 

Pace and power get you a long way in British football and Brereton looks to have those qualities in abundance. The rough edges can be smoothed down with proper coaching. He looks exactly the sort of player we are short of. 

[Stuart]

4 minutes ago, roversinmyblood said:

Hi are we still interested in Maddison?

Wonder if people would prefer Brereton or Maddison and Bauer?

[islander200]

9 minutes ago, Stuart said:

He has only played for England U19s and not even yet the U21s. If he is so good in the Championship, why can’t he get into Forest’s first team. 

If we sign him for £8m then he is going to have to be a first team starter every week and be scoring from day one.

That’s a big leap.

Stuart it's only this season he hasn't been starting, Karanka doesn't fancy him doesn't make him a bad player does it?

Karanka wasn't a fan of Rhodes either a player I know you rate.

On would I expect him to come in and start banging them in or be our undisputed no 1 striker from the get go?No but I think he has great potential and would eventually be.

Mowbray has spoken about it taking 3 or 4 Windows to get a squad together capable of putting in a sustained challenge for promotion,Brereton is being brought in with one eye on the future.

We have been told by the club and Mowbray that they are hoping to bring 3 or 4 in, if that's the case then i'l be happy  and excited with the Brereton signing.

If we only brought Brereton in for 8 million and nobody else then I would be scratching my head as i would feel the money would have been better used spread out 

 

[Wing Wizard Windy Miller]

Only just listened to Mowbray's interview.  Sounds like we may be moving away from Brer Rabbit and onto pastures new.  Also sounds like clubs are asking for more now our budget is out there. 

Edit:. encouraging hearing TM talking about replacing pace with pace.  A commodity we've been short of for years.

Edited August 19, 2018 by Wing Wizard Windy Miller

[blueboy3333]

5 minutes ago, Stuart said:

Wonder if people would prefer Brereton or Maddison and Bauer?

Now that is a straw man!

[Stuart]

 

11 minutes ago, islander200 said:

Stuart it's only this season he hasn't been starting, Karanka doesn't fancy him doesn't make him a bad player does it?

Karanka wasn't a fan of Rhodes either a player I know you rate.

On would I expect him to come in and start banging them in or be our undisputed no 1 striker from the get go?No but I think he has great potential and would eventually be.

Mowbray has spoken about it taking 3 or 4 Windows to get a squad together capable of putting in a sustained challenge for promotion,Brereton is being brought in with one eye on the future.

We have been told by the club and Mowbray that they are hoping to bring 3 or 4 in, if that's the case then i'l be happy  and excited with the Brereton signing.

If we only brought Brereton in for 8 million and nobody else then I would be scratching my head as i would feel the money would have been better used spread out 

 

On that basis we absolutely should not be signing this kid.

If it takes £8m to add the right kind of player to our squad then we are going to need to spend that again in every one of those next 3-4 windows. Without losing any payers we want to keep.

“A sustained challenge” is an interesting phrase. It’s the spin on: “missing out several times”. We fans have to live with that but these players don’t. Dack and Lenihan will be on other clubs’ scouting radars you can be sure.

For me, £8m now means being play-off contenders this season. If Brereton is that player, great, but right now I (and most others) only see potential. If we are building slowly (a noble idea) then we should be scouting better and spending less.

We are trying to have a rational discussion about something that is completely irrational but it’s good that people are being civil.

Edited August 19, 2018 by Stuart