Ben Brereton Diaz

[Stuart]

1 hour ago, JoeH said:

 

Third season and three different roles. So far.

None can be considered a success.

[islander200]

2 minutes ago, roversfan99 said:

This season has only been 4 games, and still no goals as of yet. Mixed bag v Doncaster, good play for the second goal but missed an open net. Poor v Newcastle, few good things v Wycombe but again no goal threat, and ineffective at Bournemouth.

Thanks for the analysis.

With Brereton though, ultimately for all of the "progressive runs" and "touches in pen area" until he starts offering a goal threat or really stamping his authority on games, progression may be fair in terms of the very, very low benchmark but it still wont be enough.

Its hard not to be desperate especially for him to really push on, and it is slightly better, but its nowhere near enough.

He does need to start scoring goals no doubt but at least his progressive runs are now leading to either goals or chances, he might not get the assist but his run played a major part in Armstrong's second I know only against Wycomb but I do think he is getting better with each game, he is far off looking a 7 million buy but iv been encouraged with what iv seen from him this season

[roversfan99]

1 minute ago, islander200 said:

He does need to start scoring goals no doubt but at least his progressive runs are now leading to either goals or chances, he might not get the assist but his run played a major part in Armstrong's second I know only against Wycomb but I do think he is getting better with each game, he is far off looking a 7 million buy but iv been encouraged with what iv seen from him this season

I actually though that his pass to Rothwell forced him far wider than he needed to which Rothwell did especially well to cross so well, but he also played a part in the second goal so fair play on that. He is really clumsy but is developing a good habit of stumbling past players in the meantime, he did it at Newcastle on the far side and 2 Newcastle players ended up colliding I think.

I find myself in games really willing him on in particular, I was disappointed to see him come off on Saturday as I felt that him scoring would have been the icing on the cake.

The worry is that when the moment comes, he often spurns it. But there is improvement since lockdown, but plenty more needed.

[K-Hod]

I love the stats and the details that go into them. It reminds me of that film Moneyball!

Anyway, you know what I love even more? Goals and assists from our attackers....

[SBlue]

9 minutes ago, roversfan99 said:

I actually though that his pass to Rothwell forced him far wider than he needed to which Rothwell did especially well to cross so well, but he also played a part in the second goal so fair play on that. He is really clumsy but is developing a good habit of stumbling past players in the meantime, he did it at Newcastle on the far side and 2 Newcastle players ended up colliding I think.

I find myself in games really willing him on in particular, I was disappointed to see him come off on Saturday as I felt that him scoring would have been the icing on the cake.

The worry is that when the moment comes, he often spurns it. But there is improvement since lockdown, but plenty more needed.

Playing it wide drew the CB away from central six yard box for the expected return ball, it also gave Rothwell the chance to pass it without being blocked or intercepted. 
 

Thats what I saw anyway, a good run and good pass.

Whether he meant it or not is a completely different matter.

 

I love our gangly awkward Prince, I feel he’s coming good.

[AllRoverAsia]

Expected goals per game 2020/21, looks like about 0.5 .... how does that work???

Does in mean he's expected to be a 1 goal in 2 game striker.

There is more chance of me shitting in the Xs handbag

Thats progress right?

 

[Guest]

22 minutes ago, AllRoverAsia said:

Expected goals per game 2020/21, looks like about 0.5 .... how does that work???

Does in mean he's expected to be a 1 goal in 2 game striker.

There is more chance of me shitting in the Xs handbag

Thats progress right?

 

His Expected Goals, calculated by the chances on goal he has on a game, his shots on target ratios throughout his career and then the proximity to goal of his chances, is at around 0.5. He’s actually scored 0. So he’s far underperforming what’s expected of him.

Adam Armstrong’s xG per game is around 1.8, and he’s achieving around and above 2.0. A much more potent striker.

[simongarnerisgod]

2 minutes ago, JoeH said:

His Expected Goals, calculated by the chances on goal he has on a game, his shots on target ratios throughout his career and then the proximity to goal of his chances, is at around 0.5. He’s actually scored 0. So he’s far underperforming what’s expected of him.

Adam Armstrong’s xG per game is around 1.8, and he’s achieving around and above 2.0. A much more potent striker.

it does`nt take a spreadsheet or bar graph to tell me that brereton is underachieving?

[chaddyrovers]

1 hour ago, roversfan99 said:

This season has only been 4 games, and still no goals as of yet. Mixed bag v Doncaster, good play for the second goal but missed an open net. Poor v Newcastle, few good things v Wycombe but again no goal threat, and ineffective at Bournemouth.

How many chances to score has Brereton had? 2 chances I can remember? 

His performances have been much better and his runs and dribbles have led to goals. His confidence is better and he more involved. 

[roversfan99]

2 minutes ago, chaddyrovers said:

How many chances to score has Brereton had? 2 chances I can remember? 

His performances have been much better and his runs and dribbles have led to goals. His confidence is better and he more involved. 

He had an open net v Doncaster, put it wide. He had a speculative shot v Newcastle that was saved. He had a brilliant chance that he failed to control properly at the end v Newcastle. And he ran through v Wycombe but tamely hit a shot at the keeper. But he doesnt get himself into goalscoring positions enough, it was infuriating watching him v Newcastle not running into the box when we had the ball in attacking positions. 

[chaddyrovers]

Just now, roversfan99 said:

He had an open net v Doncaster, put it wide. He had a speculative shot v Newcastle that was saved. He had a brilliant chance that he failed to control properly at the end v Newcastle. And he ran through v Wycombe but tamely hit a shot at the keeper. But he doesnt get himself into goalscoring positions enough, it was infuriating watching him v Newcastle not running into the box when we had the ball in attacking positions. 

The speculative shot is a chance is it? 

He had 2 proper chances this chance. 

Thats a very fair point that he doesn't get himself into the goalscoring positions enough. He never been a number 9 striker. Maybe the coaching of him in youth days haven't help him. 

[Guest]

23 minutes ago, simongarnerisgod said:

it does`nt take a spreadsheet or bar graph to tell me that brereton is underachieving?

I’m not saying it does take a spreadsheet, nothing wrong with detail, even if you have already made your mind up.

[simongarnerisgod]

15 minutes ago, JoeH said:

I’m not saying it does take a spreadsheet, nothing wrong with detail, even if you have already made your mind up.

after watching him try to play football for nye on two seasons,i think im`e entitled to an opinion and yes,my mind is made up,he`s bloody useless?

[Guest]

28 minutes ago, simongarnerisgod said:

after watching him try to play football for nye on two seasons,i think im`e entitled to an opinion and yes,my mind is made up,he`s bloody useless?

I won’t pretend to understand where you’ve seen anything that says you’re not entitled to your opinion. Data and analysis isn’t there to shut you down, it’s there simply to add to the discussion, and myself nor anyone else has said you aren’t entitled to your own views.

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

Dolan's done more in the three months he's been here than Big Ben has in three years.

[Mattyblue]

There’s often ‘lies, damn lies and statistics’ when it comes to football stats, but then there’s BB where even the data spits out his contribution as... ‘zero’.

Edited September 24, 2020 by Mattyblue

[Hasta]

Brereton has only had 2 chances because he doesn't get himself into goalscoring positions. It's an instinct. Hoddle famously said Andy Cole needed 5 chances to score a goal, but he scored lots of goals because he had the ability to know where to be stood to get those chances. It wasn't luck. Jordan Rhodes was the same.  They might be top class goalscorer but if you look at DG's catalogue of goals there will be many in and around 12 yards where he picks up the pieces. 

The argument will come that BB is often being asked to perform a slightly deeper or wider role, but Dack is currently our best example of a player with a goalscorer instinct, and he never plays up front as a central striker.

He did his job in the run for the 3rd goal against Wycombe, but lets be honest. He runs into open space with no challenge and then plays the easy ball well. Rochina may well have done a step-over at the end and tried to bend it in from 25 yards so all credit for doing the simple thing well. But I would expect any professional player with a bit of pace to have been able to do that, including the likes of Bell. For balance, he has made short runs outside the box several times where he has actually gone past a man several times this year which are a far better example that he has a bit of dribbling talent.

I have seen him be a bit more effective this season, but he still looks like an offensive squad player and is never a goalscoring striker. I said weeks ago there was no chance of him getting 15 goals a season and a couple of people said it was possible. He will score goals but isn't going to get even 10. Armstrong may well be flying but over the course of the season we will need another source of goals.

Edited September 24, 2020 by Hasta

[Tom]

@JoeH are the metrics pro rated or actual?

So chances per game etc is that based purely on time on the pitch or multiplied to factor in the full 90?

 

[Blue blood]

17 hours ago, K-Hod said:

I love the stats and the details that go into them. It reminds me of that film Moneyball!

Anyway, you know what I love even more? Goals and assists from our attackers....

Yes. With you there. Call me a football dinosaur but I prefer my strikers to get or cause goals. 

I don't even mind if they don't score too many if they cause them for others, for example Roberts unsettling opposing defences (along with unsettling Rovers fans with his shooting but I digress.) 

Until Ben is involved in and/or scoring a decent number of goals he can only be deemed a failure. At present he's still not meeting that criteria. 

[LeftWinger]

21 hours ago, Blue blood said:

I don't even mind if they don't score too many if they cause them for others, for example Roberts unsettling opposing defences 

Jason Roberts:

2011/12 - 7 goals

2010/11 - 5 goals

2009/10 - 5 goals

2008/09 - 7 goals

2007/08 - 5 goals

2006/07 - 5 goals

Numbers that Brereton can only dream of ??

[philipl]

36 minutes ago, LeftWinger said:

Jason Roberts:

2011/12 - 7 goals

2010/11 - 5 goals

2009/10 - 5 goals

2008/09 - 7 goals

2007/08 - 5 goals

2006/07 - 5 goals

Numbers that Brereton can only dream of ??

Just so long as Ben doesn't have designs on challenging Jason Roberts' record for open goal misses...

[Leonard Venkhater]

30 minutes ago, philipl said:

Just so long as Ben doesn't have designs on challenging Jason Roberts' record for open goal misses...

...or closing down the concerns of honest Rovers fans on the radio...OBE, my arse!

[SBlue]

I'm putting a tenner on a Brereton goal against Derby, it's a banker.

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

2 hours ago, philipl said:

Just so long as Ben doesn't have designs on challenging Jason Roberts' record for open goal misses...

He's giving it a good go as far as I can see Phillip !

[LeftWinger]

Thought this was interesting analysis by a Derby County fan on Rovers team (taken from the Derby County match thread).

You can see how far up the full-backs are pushing, with Johnson (4) sitting very deep. 

Dolan (39) was out most advanced player on average.

Brereton (20) was deeper on average than JRC (24)!!

It's no wonder he doesn't score many - he's not going to playing quite that deep. Rothwell and Holtby were both more advance on average.