Summer transfer window 2021.

[roversfan99]

49 minutes ago, Wegerleswiggle said:

The motive is quite clear. He loves the Club, he loves what he does and believes in it. He wants to share his undoubted talent with fellow Rovers fans, who have an interest. 

He has openly said that he believes it's time for a change of manager so there's no motive of trying to please Mowbray. His analysis of performance has data to back it up. 

I didnt mean motive in anything other than a sincere way, and indeed said motive was as suspected and shown above; to try and showcase what he can do with a view to getting involved in professional football. The document be made quite clearly took a lot of time and effort and is very well presented, so its in no way offensive to suggest that he may be doing it with an ambition to get involved into football on the back of such work.

His stance on Mowbray has been fairly uncommital compared to the vast, vast majority, with a huge focus on "performances" although I dont think you can make performance objective even with data and indeed having watched every game this season, my opinion certainly wouldnt match the implication that we finished considerably below where our performances would have merited, no matter how many possession, progressive passes, expected goals stats or any other metrics you could throw at me. I do wonder if there is a risk when heavily focused in data of using your opinion to justify the data rather than vice versa, and I did also suggest that his unwillingness to be too critical of the manager was with a view of potentially getting involved with Rovers or indeed any club, something which may well be true and if so probably a very wise move.

@chaddyrovers I have not criticised his work so I am unsure why you have come to that conclusion. Although even if I had, I presume that if he has genuine ambitions of getting into football then he wouldnt be wise expecting only praise and no criticism. We have no idea if this work in its current format would be genuinely used by a professional football club, something he implies and admits himself on the first page. Either way, I gave it a quick read myself and it was fairly interesting. All I merely did was make a suggestion regarding his motive which he indirectly admitted within hours. Nothing wrong with that.

[chaddyrovers]

20 minutes ago, roversfan99 said:

We have no idea if this work in its current format would be genuinely used by a professional football club, something he implies and admits himself on the first page. Either way, I gave it a quick read myself and it was fairly interesting.

This is used by many football clubs IMO. 

How do you think Football clubs recruitment find their transfer targets and how do you think Clubs scout players and what tools do they used? 

Of Course Andy would like to get into football recruitment job. 

What do you think of the transfers targets he suggested? 

[DE.]

27 minutes ago, roversfan99 said:

 I do wonder if there is a risk when heavily focused in data of using your opinion to justify the data rather than vice versa.

Bias is one of the biggest problems when it comes to data analysis and is often unconscious, which is why typically there are teams involved checking to ensure unconscious bias isn't clouding any conclusions or shaping the way the data has been modelled. With that said it's also not uncommon for data to be purposefully manipulated to suit a specific viewpoint, particularly when funding or similar issues are in play. Not saying Andy is guilty of that for the record, just a general point to consider when looking at any data analysis. 

[yeti-dog]

 

Albert Einstein apparently once said;  “Not everything that can be counted counts and not everything that counts can be counted.”

That pretty much sums up my feelings on data in football - it has a part to play but so do lots of other things...

 

[tomphil]

I think this data stuff these lads produce is based on what Rovers are doing anyway, or along those lines. That's why it often seems to tally up with Mowbrays stuff although at times it does appear like it's done to back him up.

In other words i think they are trying to impress him and the club rather than just promote his possession football as successful. 

It does though act as a beacon for some to hold up in support of the manager. Also a bit of coincidence they do stuff about finishing in midtable with a young team and reduced wage bill. As opposed to getting in some more experience on bigger wages and ending up finishing there anyway. Then hey presto that looks like the direction the club is now taking 😉

A tip off or two there maybe, sadly that scenario rests at the managers door no one else. His poor judgement and couldn't give one attitude plays the biggest part in a good strong squad floundering.

Likewise that has now led us to potentially having to cut back and curtail. Evolution it most certainly isn't, no matter how many analysts jump all over it.

[roversfan99]

26 minutes ago, chaddyrovers said:

This is used by many football clubs IMO. 

How do you think Football clubs recruitment find their transfer targets and how do you think Clubs scout players and what tools do they used? 

Of Course Andy would like to get into football recruitment job. 

What do you think of the transfers targets he suggested? 

I know that data is in general, im saying that we have no ideas as to whether it would be of any use to clubs in this specific format, to this level of detail, all this document is a mere discussion topic between fans, not in any way something that football clubs are or will be using, and its important to remember that.  Of course, whether its purely based on data, watching random highlights, whatever, his opinion on who we should sign is just as valid as anyone else, no more, no less.

Ive not seen most play enough if at all to comment and a few of the foreign ones I have never heard of, so couldnt possibly comment.

To be honest, I am struggling to find any enthusiasm towards who we will sign in a summer in which our underperforming manager will remain and our best player will likely leave too.

25 minutes ago, DE. said:

Bias is one of the biggest problems when it comes to data analysis and is often unconscious, which is why typically there are teams involved checking to ensure unconscious bias isn't clouding any conclusions or shaping the way the data has been modelled. With that said it's also not uncommon for data to be purposefully manipulated to suit a specific viewpoint, particularly when funding or similar issues are in play. Not saying Andy is guilty of that for the record, just a general point to consider when looking at any data analysis. 

100% agree. Data can be useful but is merely a tool, and a tool that can very easily be misused and manipulated.

[Wing Wizard Windy Miller]

3 hours ago, Ulrich said:

I'd rather have Baggio 👍

Yeah the *Not Dino* version.

[Wing Wizard Windy Miller]

29 minutes ago, yeti-dog said:

 

Albert Einstein apparently once said;  “Not everything that can be counted counts and not everything that counts can be counted.”

That pretty much sums up my feelings on data in football - it has a part to play but so do lots of other things...

 

Your eye doesn't lie!

If a player looks shit, he generally is.

[J*B]

1 hour ago, DE. said:

Bias is one of the biggest problems when it comes to data analysis and is often unconscious, which is why typically there are teams involved checking to ensure unconscious bias isn't clouding any conclusions or shaping the way the data has been modelled. With that said it's also not uncommon for data to be purposefully manipulated to suit a specific viewpoint, particularly when funding or similar issues are in play. Not saying Andy is guilty of that for the record, just a general point to consider when looking at any data analysis. 

Fun story - I once worked for a huge sports broadcaster. One day in the office I watched the football team draw names out of a hat on who do a feature on. Within 3 hours there was a 5 minute feature explaining why Kovacic was Chelsea’s best player. It was broadcast worldwide. He isn’t their best player. 

[Ulrich]

47 minutes ago, Wing Wizard Windy Miller said:

Yeah the *Not Dino* version.

 He was the most anticlimactic signing ever.  I watched loads of Italian football on channel 4 and Dino always looked a good player, I was pleased when we signed him and thought he'd be really strong for us. Then he played 😭😭😭 Dog, but still better than Keith.

[Ulrich]

56 minutes ago, roversfan99 said:

 

100% agree. Data can be useful but is merely a tool, and a tool that can very easily be misused and manipulated.

You are attempting to quantify a very subjective and unpredictable context. It is rather arrogant to think this can be done or converted into numbers. Things don't happen as expected in football.  It's a guide a way to strengthen a train of thought, but foolish to place certainty on such mathematics based on flimsy equations.

[yeti-dog]

53 minutes ago, Wing Wizard Windy Miller said:

Your eye doesn't lie!

If a player looks shit, he generally is.

Too true.

I played with a lad on the Uni team many years ago, quick as a whippet but never looked up and had often run on to the adjacent Rugby field before he realised and belatedly put the brakes on...

If he had a football 'brain' it was hidden somewhere deep and very rarely came out to play. 

 

[chaddyrovers]

1 hour ago, roversfan99 said:

I know that data is in general, im saying that we have no ideas as to whether it would be of any use to clubs in this specific format, to this level of detail, all this document is a mere discussion topic between fans, not in any way something that football clubs are or will be using, and its important to remember that.  Of course, whether its purely based on data, watching random highlights, whatever, his opinion on who we should sign is just as valid as anyone else, no more, no less.

You don't know whether this sort of documents is used by clubs. My opinion is most clubs will used this sort of documentation, data analysis tools and video clips of his performances. Rovers used WYscout app as scouting tool and we know this cos Waggott and Mowbray have confirmed this. There is different clubs director of football or recruitment chiefs on youtube explaining how they used WYscout as their scouting tool.  

1 hour ago, roversfan99 said:

To be honest, I am struggling to find any enthusiasm towards who we will sign in a summer in which our underperforming manager will remain and our best player will likely leave too.

TBH, most transfers will be happening in July or August not now whoever the manager is here for next season. 

I would be more interested in the club releasing the Season Ticket details for next season or the new home Shirt now not signings players. Plus we have the Euro's shortly to watch. 

[Wing Wizard Windy Miller]

1 hour ago, Ulrich said:

 He was the most anticlimactic signing ever.  I watched loads of Italian football on channel 4 and Dino always looked a good player, I was pleased when we signed him and thought he'd be really strong for us. Then he played 😭😭😭 Dog, but still better than Keith.

And Jason 

[RevidgeBlue]

8 hours ago, Mattyblue said:

👀

 

I lost interest in anything this guy had to say when he defended Mowbray recently by claiming under nearly every metric we had progressed. Clearly after a job with the Club or already involved with the Club in some way on this nonsensical analytics lark.

I had cause to Google Glynn Chamberlain at the weekend who is our head of European scouting and I found it very refreshing that he bucked this trend somewhat by having written in an article on scouting that nothing beat casting an experienced eye over a player.

Also it might be just me, but I can't see the use of analytics tools if they can't incorporate whether or not a players wage demands. I'm sure you can spend a few hours compiling a list of the top ten players with the most passes in a certain part of the pitch blah blah but if their financial demands are out of your league then it's a complete waste of time.

Stats don't tell you if a player has heart or whether they fancy a freezing Tuesday night in February away at Barnsley etc either.

[Wegerleswiggle]

2 minutes ago, RevidgeBlue said:

I lost interest in anything this guy had to say when he defended Mowbray recently by claiming under nearly every metric we had progressed. Clearly after a job with the Club or already involved with the Club in some way on this nonsensical analytics lark.

I had cause to Google Glynn Chamberlain at the weekend who is our head of European scouting and I found it very refreshing that he bucked this trend somewhat by having written in an article on scouting that nothing beat casting an experienced eye over a player.

Also it might be just me, but I can't see the use of analytics tools if they can't incorporate whether or not a players wage demands. I'm sure you can spend a few hours compiling a list of the top ten players with the most passes in a certain part of the pitch blah blah but if their financial demands are out of your league then it's a complete waste of time.

Stats don't tell you if a player has heart or whether they fancy a freezing Tuesday night in February away at Barnsley etc either.

Andy would love a job with Rovers, wouldn't we all? He's a passionate fan and believes in what he does. And he does it very well. 

He has recently stated that he believes a change of manager is needed so there's no hidden agenda with regards to 'defending' Mowbray. 

If you can't see the use in analytical tools then I think you need read more about it. No they don't tell you wage demands, that's when you start negotiating with players and agents. 

I find it quite sad that many people have chosen to react this way to Andy's work, but I guess I am not surprised. 

[RevidgeBlue]

6 hours ago, yeti-dog said:

 

Albert Einstein apparently once said;  “Not everything that can be counted counts and not everything that counts can be counted.”

That pretty much sums up my feelings on data in football - it has a part to play but so do lots of other things...

 

Also the oldest saying in the book,

"There are lies, damn lies and statistics".

(Benjamin Disraeli)

[AndyW]

Hi all. Would like to thank anyone and everyone who has given my work a read over the last few days. As you can probably tell it took a very long time to do and a lot of late nights around my full time job and young family, so any view or like or comment is much appreciated.

Just in answer to some comments around motive. Yes, although I am currently a player analyst part-time at FIVEYARDS (a football scouting/gambling game) it is my dream to work in recruitment for a club. That is very unlikely to be Blackburn. If they had wanted the style of stuff I do then they had ample time after last year's work.

So I had no reason to defend Mowbray and the club, but my general feeling, as displayed in the document, is that although we have been abject in spells this season, and yes the position in the league was really poor, there does seem to be some performance based positives. I know that view doesn't chime with most and that is totally fine. I put forward my arguments in the document and if you don't agree we don't need to fall out over it, I have total respect for other people's opinions and I hope you can respect the effort and professionalism I have attempted to display in the analysis.

As for people decrying data, it's true that football is a crazy, unpredictable, creative, low margin sport. People who take their opinions solely from data are barking up the wrong tree. It is also my opinion that people who take their opinions solely from results are barking up the wrong tree also. This is the reason why Liverpool, Man City, Brentford, Barnsley, Norwich et.al. are recruiting and using more data analysis and trying to use it to inform strategy. Ultimately though it is the coaching staff and players on the pitch and the things they do that matter.

15th wasn't good enough so I tried to use analysis to find the key reasons for that and propose solutions via recruitment. That is what I thought should be at the essence of what clubs should try to do. Allocate resources in the best way possible.

I don't believe that Mowbray is the man to take us up. And I don't mind if he is sacked tomorrow. But what I do want to see is a continuation of the progressive football philosophy which is more evident in our Academy sides than our senior one. The fault for that may well lie with Mowbray, as I also bring up in the document.

I'm happy to take any direct questions and also to talk about data and methods. Happy to talk about my motives as well if that's what is a concern.

Thanks all, Andy

[RevidgeBlue]

3 minutes ago, Wegerleswiggle said:

. If you can't see the use in analytical tools then I think you need read more about it. No they don't tell you wage demands, that's when you start negotiating with players and agents. 

 

Might explain partly why we can never get any deals over the line. The analysts spend hours compiling a list of targets then we put offers in commensurate with our budget which don't match those of the players in question or their agents.

[AndyW]

16 minutes ago, RevidgeBlue said:

I lost interest in anything this guy had to say when he defended Mowbray recently by claiming under nearly every metric we had progressed. Clearly after a job with the Club or already involved with the Club in some way on this nonsensical analytics lark.

I had cause to Google Glynn Chamberlain at the weekend who is our head of European scouting and I found it very refreshing that he bucked this trend somewhat by having written in an article on scouting that nothing beat casting an experienced eye over a player.

Also it might be just me, but I can't see the use of analytics tools if they can't incorporate whether or not a players wage demands. I'm sure you can spend a few hours compiling a list of the top ten players with the most passes in a certain part of the pitch blah blah but if their financial demands are out of your league then it's a complete waste of time.

Stats don't tell you if a player has heart or whether they fancy a freezing Tuesday night in February away at Barnsley etc either.

Absolutely and that is why, as again stated in the document, there are traditional scouting analysis for every player recommended. Also, if you have any time, watch the recent Stats Show videos on modern recruitment. An agreement that the visual, video and data analysis has to be in sync. In fact, I weighted all of my work towards visual scouting. It takes a long time to get to know these players and know that they are the right character for your club. God knows we need some character bringing in.

[RevidgeBlue]

8 minutes ago, AndyW said:

15th wasn't good enough so I tried to use analysis to find the key reasons for that 

The manager's no bloody good and isn't getting the best of his players!

And no amount of data analysis or research can change or gloss over that fact.

And for me it doesn't matter a jot whether you play like Guardiola or Dyche IF you're winning every game. I have a bit of an issue with rubbish football if you're only scraping to safety every season under say Allardyce but that's a different argument

Sorry to sound harsh Andy, I wish you well in your future career path if that is your passion, it's just not for me at all I'm afraid.

[Sparks Rover]

23 minutes ago, AndyW said:

But what I do want to see is a continuation of the progressive football philosophy 

Does this actually exist.? I don't see progress. Our football is slow and cumbersome for for majority of the season.

I see no progress. 

[bluebruce]

42 minutes ago, RevidgeBlue said:

Might explain partly why we can never get any deals over the line. The analysts spend hours compiling a list of targets then we put offers in commensurate with our budget which don't match those of the players in question or their agents.

You would have the same problem spending hours using the eyes of your scouts to get reports. The problem you're describing isn't the way in which reports are accumulated (which will definitely be from data AND scouts btw) but rather the shambolic and lethargic way in which we do business in general these days.

[Hasta]

 

8 hours ago, Sparks Rover said:

Does this actually exist.? I don't see progress. Our football is slow and cumbersome for for majority of the season.

I see no progress. 

Exactly. I watched almost every game last season and we regressed. 

Tony tries to convince us that our football progression is further on than it was a few years ago, but as far as enjoyment of watching Rovers go I preferred the League One and first season back performances, where we actually got the ball in the box and caused some excitement.

We've boosted our performance stats in areas which might look good on paper, but we are going backward in terms of results and excitement. And no stat on earth will tell me Gallagher should be on the wing.

[Dolly blue]

Progress ?…. What progress?

The squad has gone backwards

The pitch has gone backwards 

The ground has gone backwards 

The respect of Rovers fans towards the club has gone backwards 

The sale of season tickets has gone backwards ( if and when ever they are announced )

…..Progress? ….we need a gear change…and it will ONLY be achieved by the removal of 3 men who have taken us to this depressing point .