Summer transfer window 2021.

[Fraserkirky]

6 hours ago, Sparks Rover said:

There's no evidence that Davenport is good enough for this league.  Johnson is tried and tested and should be on the bench.  

I stand to be corrected on JD but the jury is well and truly out for me.

On Johnson, Tried and tested at not being able to keep up with the game, sure. Wins his headers and that’s it, not good enough and should be way down the depth chart. Only reason he got an new contract was that we can’t lose absolutely everyone, bet it’s a huge pay cut too. 

Edited May 27, 2021 by Fraserkirky

[yeti-dog]

16 hours ago, Sparks Rover said:

Does this actually exist.? I don't see progress. Our football is slow and cumbersome for for majority of the season.

I see no progress. 

I tend to agree although I have quite liked the fact we've dished out a few hammerings this season which is quite unusual for us. 

Scoring ,more goals is nice too but is offset , as many have said, by the fact we had no Plan B once teams sussed us out... flat-track bullies sums us up quite well this season.

[RoversClitheroe]

22 minutes ago, yeti-dog said:

I tend to agree although I have quite liked the fact we've dished out a few hammerings this season which is quite unusual for us. 

Scoring ,more goals is nice too but is offset , as many have said, by the fact we had no Plan B once teams sussed us out... flat-track bullies sums us up quite well this season.

The 2 hammerings were against 10 men, I think people are forgetting that.

[roversfan99]

41 minutes ago, JoeH said:

The argument against data in recruitment always seems to be “it can’t be used solely to judge players” but I’ve not seen a single club, analyst, pundit or fanalyst suggest that’s how it should be done. Just seems like a straw man debate.

Data science has its place. Let’s say a scout goes to watch a player. They’re rating his ability. They write out a scout report. What if they did that report on an iPad, same report, but digitally. Now we can pull data from the report and say okay here’s all the players who we like physically but might want to develop technically etc..

Surely that’s a useful science to have? I don’t understand the resistance to data science in all capacities. Some of the data science I can understand resistance to, especially match analysis, but for recruitment, data science simply makes pre-existing recruitment strategies digital, more digestible and easier to filter.

I think its main flaws are not on the assumption that it is used in isolation, that is perhaps a bit of a lazy argument that people use.

One of the main flaws is potentially as much about how it is used. There is a common tendency to take what in isolation are objective numbers and still think that they remain objective proof of a certain argument or opinion once that context has been removed. For example, in that recruitment dossier, the common conclusion seems to be that we underperformed compared to our performance level. I would argue that you cannot objectify such a broad argument based on numbers. Us and Huddersfield were 2 of the highest teams in regards to possession for example, both finished near the bottom. My conclusion before and after would be that possession does not determine performance level in any way.

The main use would be to save time undoubtedly, but so many of the metrics are so broad that they mean very little. Some stats of things like progressive runs, dribbles etc are hard to define. People are comparing different players playing different roles/even positions at times in different teams in different leagues so you are then comparing apples and pears. Plus especially with defenders, how do you judge a good one? If one makes more tackles, is that good, or does it suggest that hes often out of position? 

There is also the issue of bias which consciously or subconsciously will affect peoples use of data. To come to general conclusions, even with data, it is just an opinion no more valid than one without data.

[JacknOry]

Well, I understand stats and data play a major role in a lot of shit, but apparently I talk a load of shit according to my missus. When explaining my full 6 minutes of action, my inches per minute, forward insertions, and penetrative contributions don't seem to wash with her.

Edited May 27, 2021 by JacknOry

[tomphil]

1 hour ago, yeti-dog said:

I tend to agree although I have quite liked the fact we've dished out a few hammerings this season which is quite unusual for us. 

Scoring ,more goals is nice too but is offset , as many have said, by the fact we had no Plan B once teams sussed us out... flat-track bullies sums us up quite well this season.

When the manager says to them go out, go for it and express yourselves, in end of season dead rubbers. Then we hammer some teams you do wonder what the hell he was saying to them before that.

The possession crap squeezes the life out of this team and players. Why didn't he abandon it after lockdown last season when we had a real chance at the play offs ?

Then again i don't believe a word he says anymore so he was probably just trying to find a way to take credit.

[roversfan99]

On 10/05/2021 at 07:03, callumrovers said:

Rovers are after Ben Sheaf. Dont know alot about him. Currently on loan from Arsenal at Coventry. Young, CM, keeps the ball ticking over.  Played 29 times this season in the champ before getting injured, now fit but Coventry wont play him as agreement in place that they will pay a fee to take him perm when he hits a certain amount of apperances. Contract expries May 2021. Potential free transfer, young, cheapish wages, championship experience.

Room for growth.

Did anything come of this?

[Guest]

2 hours ago, roversfan99 said:

To come to general conclusions, even with data, it is just an opinion no more valid than one without data.

No more valid, but backed by more evidence than an opinion that doesn’t refer to data in my opinion.

[chaddyrovers]

 

Interview Rovers' head of European scouting Glyn Chamberlain 

[roversfan99]

12 minutes ago, JoeH said:

No more valid, but backed by more evidence than an opinion that doesn’t refer to data in my opinion.

But even if you imply that an opinion warrants evidence, as soon as that individual stat is taken to justify a more generalised conclusion then it loses all context.

[Ewood Ace]

For the third summer in a row we are letting average at best players mess the club about over signing a new deal. 2 years ago it was Rodwell, last year Downing and this year Bennett and Chapman. This doesn't happen every year at other clubs. If the players won't sign a new deal tell them fair enough and we will part ways instead we seem to let them keep Rovers as a fall back option, it's just typical of the very weak manager that Mowbray is. 

Harry Chapman and Elliott Bennett contract update as time ticks on their Blackburn Rovers futures - LancsLive

[chaddyrovers]

2 minutes ago, Ewood Ace said:

For the third summer in a row we are letting average at best players mess the club about over signing a new deal. 2 years ago it was Rodwell, last year Downing and this year Bennett and Chapman. This doesn't happen every year at other clubs. If the players won't sign a new deal tell them fair enough and we will part ways instead we seem to let them keep Rovers as a fall back option, it's just typical of the very weak manager that Mowbray is. 

Harry Chapman and Elliott Bennett contract update as time ticks on their Blackburn Rovers futures - LancsLive

I dont see either staying here next season tbh. Bennett will move closer to his home in the midlands

[AndyW]

7 hours ago, roversfan99 said:

Personally my opinion is that he is talented but so inconsistent and nowhere near productive enough.

Regarding your logic though, that would imply that recruitment in football is a perfect science. Surely Brereton is worth 7m if we paid that? The links to Sheffield United were mere transfer tittle tattle that probably like most rumours had no truth in it, and even if they are true and he leaves, he undoubtedly has ability, but it wouldnt change the inconsistency and lack of productivity that have marred his Rovers career.

I don't really understand the toys being thrown out of the pram here. An agenda doesnt have to carry negative connotations and indeed the motive that I and others suspected proved true; Andy admitted soon after that he had intentions of trying to get into professional football which I believe may well alter the way that he analyses things, even subconsciously because it would be counterproductive to be too publically critical of anyone within football. That's not a negative reaction.

The line in bold seems needlessly patronising. People see data as important to varying degrees, and those who find using it lots to be flawed doesnt mean that those people are ignorant to its uses. I feel like I understand it but also that so much of it is flawed, both the actual data and the way that it is used. For example, making such an in-depth document, I think that there will always be an element of trying to justify the data and what you perceive that it is showing, especially when you are so passionate about it, which is risky in itself. The conclusion that there were performance based positives for example, I did not see them having watched all of the games last season and things like possession, expected goals (a particularly controversial metric) etc, I like to take a step back and think, does ranking high in such things warrant being considered as a performance based positive, and I would personally question that. 

Andy has come on here and kindly explained plenty behind the background of making the document, he seemingly knows as well as any that people will have various questions and indeed believe in the data to varying degrees, something which he acknowledges.

I absolutely agree that bias will always exist within data. But the job of a good analyst is to provide insights taking into account that knowledge of bias. Identifying a team's strengths and weaknesses is another thing that needs to be done via visual analysis as well as data, and by watching all 46 games I think I am well placed to be able to provide both. It is interesting that trying to work for a professional football club could be considered a bias, I think there may be something in that tbf. But I am happy with, and stand by, the conclusions reached in what I wrote.

Some metrics are completely dependent on the capture of the data, and the person tagging them. Wyscout data is known to not be the gold standard, Opta and Statsbomb are ahead, but on a large enough sample size differences are found to be fairly negligible. Ranking considerably higher in almost every attacking metric and defensive metric than either of the previous two seasons is interesting if nothing else, the point is that it hasn't led to better results so there is clearly a problem there. I came up with 5 or 6 things that I thought could be improved and then attempted to do that with some players. The fact is that a percentage of it will be the manager and coaching staff, which is way beyond my remit.

As for xG, I understand that it's controversial. And some models are better than others, again Wyscout's isn't the best out there. But if you said that you created more/better chances than your opponents on most occasions then you would take that every time. And that's all I am saying. Last season that wasn't the case, yet the results were slightly better. However, in this season it hasn't been. Again, this suggests a problem but not necessarily a problem that says "we're a terrible football team". Dysfunctional perhaps. Badly coached? Individual performances/errors making a difference?

Either way, this type of analysis and recruitment is what goes on at the top of the game. The fact that more and more clubs are hiring people to do this job means that they see some value in it. It may be too much, it's not for me to say.

 

[roversfan99]

1 hour ago, AndyW said:

I absolutely agree that bias will always exist within data. But the job of a good analyst is to provide insights taking into account that knowledge of bias. Identifying a team's strengths and weaknesses is another thing that needs to be done via visual analysis as well as data, and by watching all 46 games I think I am well placed to be able to provide both. It is interesting that trying to work for a professional football club could be considered a bias, I think there may be something in that tbf. But I am happy with, and stand by, the conclusions reached in what I wrote.

Some metrics are completely dependent on the capture of the data, and the person tagging them. Wyscout data is known to not be the gold standard, Opta and Statsbomb are ahead, but on a large enough sample size differences are found to be fairly negligible. Ranking considerably higher in almost every attacking metric and defensive metric than either of the previous two seasons is interesting if nothing else, the point is that it hasn't led to better results so there is clearly a problem there. I came up with 5 or 6 things that I thought could be improved and then attempted to do that with some players. The fact is that a percentage of it will be the manager and coaching staff, which is way beyond my remit.

As for xG, I understand that it's controversial. And some models are better than others, again Wyscout's isn't the best out there. But if you said that you created more/better chances than your opponents on most occasions then you would take that every time. And that's all I am saying. Last season that wasn't the case, yet the results were slightly better. However, in this season it hasn't been. Again, this suggests a problem but not necessarily a problem that says "we're a terrible football team". Dysfunctional perhaps. Badly coached? Individual performances/errors making a difference?

Either way, this type of analysis and recruitment is what goes on at the top of the game. The fact that more and more clubs are hiring people to do this job means that they see some value in it. It may be too much, it's not for me to say.

 

Even the fact that we "ranked considerably higher in every attacking and defensive metric" is a flawed sentence IMO in that a level of context has been lost when stretching out these individual stats. For example, does having more possession mean that you are performing better? I would suggest not at all necessarily (we and Huddersfield are proof) yet such reliance on metrics out of context naturally implies that. Expected goals again is flawed in so many ways but another thing I would flag up is that last season (19/20) we scored a lot of early goals whereas this season we have conceded the first goal a lot, that will surely naturally lead to our expected goals to go up more often if we are chasing games.

One thing that I hadnt really factored in is that the data itself could not be as accurate as physically possible dependant on its source which only adds further problems. You seem to attach a level of expertise to ranking high in certain metrics as ive mentioned but would you not suggest that in any way that your opinion which seems to have aligned quite close to that to which you perceive to be the conclusions (in your opinion) of said data is natural in order to justify it as someone so passionate about it in the first place?

Some of the players you flag up on your document are defenders, is there much value in comparing stats which again in isolation are meaningless, ie more tackles may mean good reading of the game or being caught out of position? Also, do you not think that comparing players in different formations performing different roles at different clubs and crucially in different difficulties of leagues makes cross comparison fairly useless?

[Ulrich]

I remember such things as the omega ready to train system, loads of clubs shelled out fortunes for it. Trouble is it was based on pseudo science or bollocks in layman's terms. Football clubs have a tendency to buy into almost anything that they believe will give them a perceived advantage, whether it does or doesn't. Some data analysis is fine, but as always it can be taken to far and to much faith placed in it.

[tomphil]

2 hours ago, Ewood Ace said:

For the third summer in a row we are letting average at best players mess the club about over signing a new deal. 2 years ago it was Rodwell, last year Downing and this year Bennett and Chapman. This doesn't happen every year at other clubs. If the players won't sign a new deal tell them fair enough and we will part ways instead we seem to let them keep Rovers as a fall back option, it's just typical of the very weak manager that Mowbray is. 

Harry Chapman and Elliott Bennett contract update as time ticks on their Blackburn Rovers futures - LancsLive

He puts them first he'll give them a wage if they can't get sorted elsewhere.

It's sickening i said 2 years ago it's like he's running his own players care home and he's a welfare officer.

I wish they'd get somebody running this place with a set of bollocks who genuinely wants to try and push it forwards. 

[Boroblue]

Reading that just sums Mowbray up

Moves heaven and earth to sign him even after a serious injury.

Doesnt play him only under 23

Sends him out on loan and doesn’t monitor his progress 

The player feels alienated 

Mowbray offers another contract

Almost zero man management.

Bennet May or May not stay

 

In desperation it could also mean that Chapman won’t sign till Mowbrays position is resolved and Bennet is out and it’s just the, “he’s in demand scenario for his negotiations with his next club”.

 

Like a poster on another thread said no word from him. He would have signed Bennett and Evans that is a given. Chapman would have gone.

He would have been around droning on about holding on to experience. Also I thought he needed to be gelling with the new head of recruitment. We would have had chapter and verse on that but nothing.

Someone please let the axe fall on him.

 

[JHRover]

It is almost beyond belief. Last time I checked we were a professional sports club operating in a multi-million pound competition aiming to get to the most lucrative league in the world.

Yet you could easily believe this is just a part time amateur operation with no purpose or aim other than to recycle players and keep certain people comfy.

I don't know what part of this is worst.

a) That we are so devoid of ambition that we are offering people like Bennett and Chapman new contracts

b) That those players haven't ripped our hands off for the chance to stay at this club

c) That we are still mucking around with this 'will they, won't they' approach heading into June. Any offers should have been put forward months ago and they should have been jettisoned already if they showed any reluctance to sign.

Whatever it is it isn't good enough, on any level. Typical Mowbray and Rovers though. No aim nor ambition for next season but make sure the good lads have another year or two out of this if they fancy it. Amari Bell didn't. Makes you wonder what pitiful terms we are offering here, but with Venky taps turned off it will be whatever Waggott can find rattling around the club coffers. Enough to hand out deals to a few of the academy lads but not enough to sign game changing quality.

[islander200]

Chapman not hearing from the club for 3 month while out on loan is a disgrace.

 

[islander200]

1 minute ago, islander200 said:

Chapman not hearing from the club for 3 month while out on loan is a disgrace.

If what was said in that lancs live article is correct

 

 

[Mattyblue]

7 hours ago, islander200 said:

Chapman not hearing from the club for 3 month while out on loan is a disgrace.

 

Take it we don’t have a loan liaison officer like every other professional football club?

[Ulrich]

1 hour ago, Mattyblue said:

Take it we don’t have a loan liaison officer like every other professional football club?

Who is Beverly Philips?

[Mattyblue]

BP is Player liaison, no? Is that not the role in which they have to babysit the man-children that are pro footballers?

I.e changing a lightbulb for Travis at 2am etc?

Edited May 28, 2021 by Mattyblue

[tomphil]

After playing 3rd or 4th fiddle behind the 12 million duo deployed wide forward and a few others Chappers probably turned his phone off.

He was enjoying himself down there so who can blame him. He's probably desperate to stay there but if they can't afford him the Tony Mowbray Footballers Benevolent fund will step in again with a contract. ( Used to be called BRFC )

One wonders why he falls under that particular umbrella.

[Mattyblue]

Depends if TM is pals with his Dad up there, I suppose...

Edited May 28, 2021 by Mattyblue