Where will we finish?

[Guest]

The whole thing mapped out, which is even more pinch of salt kind of guesswork because form will have changed by then, looks like this:

	Head2Head (5 Games) - 10%	Form - 25%	Home PPG at Home vs Away PPG Away - 35%	Previous Result 21/22 - 20%	xG Differential - 10%		Outcome
Millwall (H)	Blackburn	Millwall	2.36 | 0.92	Draw	(+) 0.39 | (-) 0.57		Blackburn	70%	3
Sheff Utd (A)	Sheff Utd	Sheff Utd	1.66 | 1.31	Blackburn	(+) 0.90 | (-) 0.24		Sheff Utd	60%	0
QPR (H)	Blackburn	QPR	2.36 | 1.64	QPR	(+) 0.39 | (-) 0.31		Blackburn	10%	1
Fulham (A)	Fulham	Fulham	2.35 | 1.31	Fulham	(+) 1.54 | (-) 0.24		Fulham	99%	0
Bristol City (H)	Blackburn	Blackburn	2.36 | 0.87	Draw	(+) 0.39 | (-) 0.70		Blackburn	80%	3
Derby County (H)	Derby County	Equal	2.36 | 0.75	Blackburn	(+) 0.39 | (-) 0.50		Blackburn	55%	3
Reading (A)	Blackburn	Blackburn	1.00 | 1.31	Blackburn	(-) 0.61 | (-) 0.24		Blackburn	99%	3
Coventry City (A)	Blackburn	Coventry	1.80 | 1.31	Draw	(+) 0.67 | (-) 0.24		Coventry	60%	0
Blackpool (H)	Blackburn	Blackpool	2.36 | 1.07	Blackpool	(+) 0.39 | (-) 0.23		Blackburn	10%	1
Peterborough United (A)	Blackburn	Blackburn	1.14 | 1.31	Blackburn	(-) 0.27 | (-) 0.24		Blackburn	80%	3
Stoke City (H)	Blackburn	Stoke City	2.36 | 1.26	Blackburn	(+) 0.39 | (-) 0.14		Blackburn	50%	3
Preston (A)	Equal	Preston	1.53 | 1.31	Blackburn	(+) 0.09 | (-) 0.24		Preston	50%	0
Bournemouth (H)	Bournemouth	Bournemouth	2.36 | 1.93	Blackburn	(+) 0.39 | (+) 0.40		Blackburn	20%	1
Birmingham (A)	Blackburn	Blackburn	1.37 | 1.31	Blackburn	(+) 0.24 | (-) 0.24		Blackburn	10%	1
								Points	22
								Final Total	76

 

We'd finish on 76 points. More than enough for 6th I reckon. 

[Bigdoggsteel]

36 minutes ago, JoeH said:

The whole thing mapped out, which is even more pinch of salt kind of guesswork because form will have changed by then, looks like this:

 

	Head2Head (5 Games) - 10%	Form - 25%	Home PPG at Home vs Away PPG Away - 35%	Previous Result 21/22 - 20%	xG Differential - 10%		Outcome
Millwall (H)	Blackburn	Millwall	2.36 | 0.92	Draw	(+) 0.39 | (-) 0.57		Blackburn	70%	3
Sheff Utd (A)	Sheff Utd	Sheff Utd	1.66 | 1.31	Blackburn	(+) 0.90 | (-) 0.24		Sheff Utd	60%	0
QPR (H)	Blackburn	QPR	2.36 | 1.64	QPR	(+) 0.39 | (-) 0.31		Blackburn	10%	1
Fulham (A)	Fulham	Fulham	2.35 | 1.31	Fulham	(+) 1.54 | (-) 0.24		Fulham	99%	0
Bristol City (H)	Blackburn	Blackburn	2.36 | 0.87	Draw	(+) 0.39 | (-) 0.70		Blackburn	80%	3
Derby County (H)	Derby County	Equal	2.36 | 0.75	Blackburn	(+) 0.39 | (-) 0.50		Blackburn	55%	3
Reading (A)	Blackburn	Blackburn	1.00 | 1.31	Blackburn	(-) 0.61 | (-) 0.24		Blackburn	99%	3
Coventry City (A)	Blackburn	Coventry	1.80 | 1.31	Draw	(+) 0.67 | (-) 0.24		Coventry	60%	0
Blackpool (H)	Blackburn	Blackpool	2.36 | 1.07	Blackpool	(+) 0.39 | (-) 0.23		Blackburn	10%	1
Peterborough United (A)	Blackburn	Blackburn	1.14 | 1.31	Blackburn	(-) 0.27 | (-) 0.24		Blackburn	80%	3
Stoke City (H)	Blackburn	Stoke City	2.36 | 1.26	Blackburn	(+) 0.39 | (-) 0.14		Blackburn	50%	3
Preston (A)	Equal	Preston	1.53 | 1.31	Blackburn	(+) 0.09 | (-) 0.24		Preston	50%	0
Bournemouth (H)	Bournemouth	Bournemouth	2.36 | 1.93	Blackburn	(+) 0.39 | (+) 0.40		Blackburn	20%	1
Birmingham (A)	Blackburn	Blackburn	1.37 | 1.31	Blackburn	(+) 0.24 | (-) 0.24		Blackburn	10%	1
								Points	22
								Final Total	76

 

We'd finish on 76 points. More than enough for 6th I reckon. 

Interesting experiment , but you could do it hundreds, if not thousands of ways.

The mantra for us is one game at a time. Milwall next 

[USABlue]

I see us finishing 8th to 10th.  Mowbary leaning back in his easy chair, cup of tea and lemon drizzle on hand, feeling pretty good about himself.  Wondering how the new contract is gonna look 

[DE.]

2 hours ago, Displaced Rover said:

more realistically we're potentially fairly early in a classic Mowbray death spiral.

Considering how poorly we've been playing since 2022 started I would hope we're at the end of a DS rather than the beginning of one. Just picked up more points than we usually would thanks to a much steadier defence than previous seasons.

[Bigdoggsteel]

21 minutes ago, USABlue said:

I see us finishing 8th to 10th.  Mowbary leaning back in his easy chair, cup of tea and lemon drizzle on hand, feeling pretty good about himself.  Wondering how the new contract is gonna look 

Have you watched any interviews with him recently? If you did, I don't see how you could think he would be happy if we don't make the play offs. 

[Hasta]

7 minutes ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

Have you watched any interviews with him recently? If you did, I don't see how you could think he would be happy if we don't make the play offs. 

Agree. He also looks more agitated and animated during games now than at any point in the last 3 years.

[TruRover]

Unfortunately I don’t think we have the depth to catch Bournemouth now. The top 2 look fairly comfortable now and have squads far superior to anyone else isnt the league so I can’t see to much drama there. 
 

I wouldn’t worry about us for the playoffs - I think we’ll get there fairly comfortably without  putting any real pressure on Bournemouth or Fulham. I say this because our goal scoring issues won’t last - for the past couple of seasons we have shown an ability to score a fair few goals, and have players across the team who can contribute. On top of that I firmly believe we have the best defence in the league in our first choice back 5, which imo makes us a really strong contender for those playoff matches when they eventually come around. 
 

What I would say is we need to overcome our weaknesses when we go behind. It’s been an issue which I’ve picked up on from the past few seasons and that truly lies at the door of TM - for all his success this season he has constantly failed to address this. 
 

A win against Millwall is essential to get confidence up heading into 2 important fixtures which I’m hoping for 4 points from. Fulham is a free hit. 
 

come on your rovers!

[Nuttall is lost]

If we do get promoted I would fear its too soon as the squad would need serious serious investment in order to have a chance of staying up.  I think they would go straight back down.

[Wegerleswiggle]

12 hours ago, JoeH said:

The whole thing mapped out, which is even more pinch of salt kind of guesswork because form will have changed by then, looks like this:

 

	Head2Head (5 Games) - 10%	Form - 25%	Home PPG at Home vs Away PPG Away - 35%	Previous Result 21/22 - 20%	xG Differential - 10%		Outcome
Millwall (H)	Blackburn	Millwall	2.36 | 0.92	Draw	(+) 0.39 | (-) 0.57		Blackburn	70%	3
Sheff Utd (A)	Sheff Utd	Sheff Utd	1.66 | 1.31	Blackburn	(+) 0.90 | (-) 0.24		Sheff Utd	60%	0
QPR (H)	Blackburn	QPR	2.36 | 1.64	QPR	(+) 0.39 | (-) 0.31		Blackburn	10%	1
Fulham (A)	Fulham	Fulham	2.35 | 1.31	Fulham	(+) 1.54 | (-) 0.24		Fulham	99%	0
Bristol City (H)	Blackburn	Blackburn	2.36 | 0.87	Draw	(+) 0.39 | (-) 0.70		Blackburn	80%	3
Derby County (H)	Derby County	Equal	2.36 | 0.75	Blackburn	(+) 0.39 | (-) 0.50		Blackburn	55%	3
Reading (A)	Blackburn	Blackburn	1.00 | 1.31	Blackburn	(-) 0.61 | (-) 0.24		Blackburn	99%	3
Coventry City (A)	Blackburn	Coventry	1.80 | 1.31	Draw	(+) 0.67 | (-) 0.24		Coventry	60%	0
Blackpool (H)	Blackburn	Blackpool	2.36 | 1.07	Blackpool	(+) 0.39 | (-) 0.23		Blackburn	10%	1
Peterborough United (A)	Blackburn	Blackburn	1.14 | 1.31	Blackburn	(-) 0.27 | (-) 0.24		Blackburn	80%	3
Stoke City (H)	Blackburn	Stoke City	2.36 | 1.26	Blackburn	(+) 0.39 | (-) 0.14		Blackburn	50%	3
Preston (A)	Equal	Preston	1.53 | 1.31	Blackburn	(+) 0.09 | (-) 0.24		Preston	50%	0
Bournemouth (H)	Bournemouth	Bournemouth	2.36 | 1.93	Blackburn	(+) 0.39 | (+) 0.40		Blackburn	20%	1
Birmingham (A)	Blackburn	Blackburn	1.37 | 1.31	Blackburn	(+) 0.24 | (-) 0.24		Blackburn	10%	1
								Points	22
								Final Total	76

 

We'd finish on 76 points. More than enough for 6th I reckon. 

I'm gonna stick my neck out and say we finish on 82 points in 4th. 

[RoverInverness]

7 hours ago, Nuttall is lost said:

If we do get promoted I would fear its too soon as the squad would need serious serious investment in order to have a chance of staying up.  I think they would go straight back down.

Too soon to clear off the debt of the past ten years and to come back down with parachute payments to enable us to compete with the bigger spending clubs in the championship? 

I don’t think so.

Our financial situation is getting more perilous every season. Is it too soon to keep the wolves away from the door for another ten years?

Of course not.

[joey_big_nose]

2 hours ago, RoverInverness said:

Too soon to clear off the debt of the past ten years and to come back down with parachute payments to enable us to compete with the bigger spending clubs in the championship? 

I don’t think so.

Our financial situation is getting more perilous every season. Is it too soon to keep the wolves away from the door for another ten years?

Of course not.

Yes - if we go up we will in all likelihood get absolutely battered. Only players we have imo who are likely to be able to step up to acceptable Prem standard are Kaminski, Wharton, Lenihan. We've got a bunch who might make it - Travis, Buckley, Rothwell, Brereton, Dack - but I am not that confident about any them. 

So we'd probably go up, get absolutely minced, come back down, but at least have some money to spend and a couple more years of experience in our young players. 

That said some teams have gone up and looked totally insufficient on paper and stayed up the first season up (eg.  Huddersfield), and some clubs have gone up and had a great squad and got sent straight back down (Fulham recently spring to mind). So it's not a foregone conclusion. But it will be a very difficult season I am sure.

[TheRevAshton]

It's realistic to predict that we'd come straight back down, but promotion would be absolutely transformational for the club regardless.

The huge cash injection would help us pay off debts, offer long contracts to our current players and make some quality signings.

The value of our young promotion winners would skyrocket too - stick them on long contracts and we could absolutely rinse anyone who moves in for them. The gate would also increase substantially, every match i'd expect a minimum of 20k home fans at Ewood in the Prem.

Then if we go back down: Strong championship squad, parachute payments, relief from debts and confidence around the club.

I'll take it!

Edited February 17, 2022 by TheRevAshton

[JC4LAB]

28 minutes ago, TheRevAshton said:

It's realistic to predict that we'd come straight back down, but promotion would be absolutely transformational for the club regardless.

The huge cash injection would help us pay off debts, offer long contracts to our current players and make some quality signings.

The value of our young promotion winners would skyrocket too - stick them on long contracts and we could absolutely rinse anyone who moves in for them. The gate would also increase substantially, every match i'd expect a minimum of 20k home fans at Ewood in the Prem.

Then if we go back down: Strong championship squad, parachute payments, relief from debts and confidence around the club.

I'll take it!

A year in the sun would be very nice

[chaddyrovers]

We will finish top 6 and playoff place at least. But second place is there to get from us. 

Bournemouth have several games against teams already challenging for playoffs and top 2 including us. No way is the race over for second place and IMO we can grab it for sure

[Upside Down]

I'm going to revise my prediction and sy we'll finish 13th.

[AllRoverAsia]

I have changed to outside of playoffs.

My prediction skills are on a par with Mercer so that's a positive

[Bbrovers2288]

Yup shambles, out the top 8

[lraC]

Looking back on these predictions, we are far worse than most of us thought. 

[Guest]

Dack shoots, the keeper parries the ball right into the feet of our 'star' striker steaming in on goal and only 2 yards out.... who falls over, misses the ball with his feet, handballs it and sits haplessly inert whilst the defender makes a hurried and grateful clearance...

Comedy at its finest... most painfully lifelike

Just think, next season we will face the six fingered scourge without the core of this team, with a whole new bunch of faces from the bottom of the barrel, and with the gurning chump bigging Burnleh up as if they were Barcelona and we were Stan Ternent's Minis versus Ferraris track suited bastard side show.

Makes you salivate at the prospect... pass me the jellies..

[davulsukur]

In mid Feb, Chaddy was confident that we would have 2nd place off Bournemouth but definitely finishing in the top 6 as a minimum.

Fast forward to 20th March and by 14:30 today we are likely to have fallen out of the play places altogether.

[K-Hod]

If you lose to a team managed by Paul Ince, you don’t even deserve to be in the shake up. Still not over that tbh….

[Waggy76]

8th

[blondie]

9th

[booth]

Between 10th and 12th.

[andyroversmad]

12th