v Reading (a) - 17/8/22 - Mark 1

[chaddyrovers]

2 minutes ago, only2garners said:

Wharton is out until September isn’t he?

Correct

JDT confirmed that here

Injury update: Scott Wharton | rovers.co.uk

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Admiral Nelsen said:

On course to rocket up that xG table!

Well yeah, against Reading I'd expect us to be creating high xG chances, and hopefully (🤞) sticking them away. West Brom and Swansea games always going to be a case of putting away the half chances and defending well I think.

[chaddyrovers]

 

 

[JHRover]

Can anyone clarify the situation with broadcast of this game?

I'm finding it very difficult to understand if it is available and if so where. Mixed messages as to whether Sky are doing the 'red button' thing or not.

[Mattyblue]

I believe not for this round of fixtures as it’s an ‘extra’ midweek due to the World Cup.

[JHRover]

But is the £10 IFollow thing in operation - and is this the same as Rovers TV?

I'm completely lost on this now

[Mike E]

10 hours ago, JacknOry said:

Reading the Reading boards, they are just as thread bare as us if not moreso. Tons of injuries there apparently (especially in defence). They are not looking forward to it and are clinging onto xG of all things. Ours is the lowest in the division apparently and they are 9th. 

How can we be lowest xG, yet have the highest GD? Bullshit statistic.

[roversfan99]

3 hours ago, jim mk2 said:

In the Venky's era, we've won one and lost 5 in 6 games away to Reading. If it's not a hoodoo it's pretty poor. 

Of course, but I think fixture coincidences like this tend to happen, either way I doubt a squad for whom most played few if any of those games will be weighed down by our poor recent record.

[TruRover]

Interesting game this. If we had played on Saturday then I would see this as a nailed on win - however it’s a short turnaround from the gruelling game against West Brom.

I would be very open to some rotation.

Kaminski 

Brittain Phillips ayala Edun

Travis Morton 

Dolan/Markandy Dack Diaz 

Gally 

Give Szmodics, Hedges, Buckley and Pickering a rest and put them back in against Sheffield United. 
 

I think this may be the first time we see a team sit in against us so will be interesting to see how we overcome it. 

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

6 minutes ago, TruRover said:

Interesting game this. If we had played on Saturday then I would see this as a nailed on win - however it’s a short turnaround from the gruelling game against West Brom.

I would be very open to some rotation.

Kaminski 

Brittain Phillips ayala Edun

Travis Morton 

Dolan/Markandy Dack Diaz 

Gally 

Give Szmodics, Hedges, Buckley and Pickering a rest and put them back in against Sheffield United. 
 

I think this may be the first time we see a team sit in against us so will be interesting to see how we overcome it. 

Markandy got injured in the recent U-21 game.

[roversfan99]

No way can we chuck Edun in, he is a liability. 

I would be wary of any changes bar Dack for Szmodics. Hard to take out a Buckley or a Hedges without weakening us. We badly need more players in.

[Admiral Nelsen]

16 minutes ago, Mike E said:

How can we be lowest xG, yet have the highest GD? Bullshit statistic.

 

Partially because we've also conceded the lowest xG!

 

I half agree - I think over the course of a few months or a full season it can be quite informative. At this stage when you've got such a small number of cases it's ridiculous to draw any proper conclusions from it.

[Admiral Nelsen]

Naby Sarr appears to have missed the deadline to be able to sign in time for tomorrows game. He's not exactly Franco Baresi, but he definitely would've improved their defence. 

[Guest]

35 minutes ago, Mike E said:

How can we be lowest xG, yet have the highest GD? Bullshit statistic.

Please at least try and look into what xG is, how it works and what it all means. Your question (before the "bullshit statistic" bit) is bang on and it quite literally the question that the metric xG looks to explore.

It shows you which players are scoring more often from lower quality chances. It gives us an idea of how many chances we're creating in a game and how high quality those chances are.

We've got a really low xG and a high GS because we've scored several goals that are considered typically rare. Is it sustainable that Lewis Travis will score 2 goals every 3 games? No. Is it sustainable that Ben & Sam will score from outside the box each game like West Brom? No. That's what xG models show us. Last season, xG models got proven correct. We stopped scoring from our limited chances, we stopped being so clinical and it fell away.

What I really like to see is that our goals conceded AND our xGC figures are both really low. Not only have we kept teams out, it's been done through quality defending and not just atypical luck - as per the models.

[roversfan99]

But if Travis and Brereton hadn't smashed in screamers to put us 1 up, the onus wouldn't have then gone almost solely onto our opponents to score an equaliser, making them attack more.

The primary reason I would suggest that we went from suddenly outperforming to underperforming last season was not even that it wasn't sustainable. Our main striker who was getting most of oru chances was injured and our remaining attackers (Dolan, Khadra, Gallagher) don't have that same level of composure.

[JacknOry]

1 hour ago, Mike E said:

How can we be lowest xG, yet have the highest GD? Bullshit statistic.

Think it is because we have created few chances per game. Obviously, we have been clinical with those that we have created. I think i saw a stat that we have scored 6 goals from 10 shots so far. Thats 60% and a high conversion rate - something that is probably not sustainable over a season. So that is what the Reading fans are clinging on to - that we cannot continue being so clinical from so few chances.

Which team was it a few seasons back that at the start of the season seemed to score from every shot they were getting? Bit like them. 

[Mike E]

23 minutes ago, JoeH said:

Please at least try and look into what xG is, how it works and what it all means. Your question (before the "bullshit statistic" bit) is bang on and it quite literally the question that the metric xG looks to explore.

It shows you which players are scoring more often from lower quality chances. It gives us an idea of how many chances we're creating in a game and how high quality those chances are.

We've got a really low xG and a high GS because we've scored several goals that are considered typically rare. Is it sustainable that Lewis Travis will score 2 goals every 3 games? No. Is it sustainable that Ben & Sam will score from outside the box each game like West Brom? No. That's what xG models show us. Last season, xG models got proven correct. We stopped scoring from our limited chances, we stopped being so clinical and it fell away.

What I really like to see is that our goals conceded AND our xGC figures are both really low. Not only have we kept teams out, it's been done through quality defending and not just atypical luck - as per the models.

I'm willing to be open-minded but even after your explanation I struggle to see the value in it. Maybe over the season I'll begin to appreciate it more.

I think I struggle because the 'opportunity' or value of a chance Vs half-chance is so subjective.

[oldjamfan1]

19 minutes ago, JacknOry said:

Think it is because we have created few chances per game. Obviously, we have been clinical with those that we have created. I think i saw a stat that we have scored 6 goals from 10 shots so far. Thats 60% and a high conversion rate - something that is probably not sustainable over a season. So that is what the Reading fans are clinging on to - that we cannot continue being so clinical from so few chances.

Which team was it a few seasons back that at the start of the season seemed to score from every shot they were getting? Bit like them. 

Funnily enough it was Reading

[bluebruce]

23 minutes ago, JacknOry said:

Think it is because we have created few chances per game. Obviously, we have been clinical with those that we have created. I think i saw a stat that we have scored 6 goals from 10 shots so far. Thats 60% and a high conversion rate - something that is probably not sustainable over a season. So that is what the Reading fans are clinging on to - that we cannot continue being so clinical from so few chances.

Which team was it a few seasons back that at the start of the season seemed to score from every shot they were getting? Bit like them. 

I'm certain that will be from 10 shots ON TARGET, not 10 shots total. Hell we had 7 shots just against West Brom. So the conversion rate isn't going to be anywhere near 60%.

[bluebruce]

Just now, bluebruce said:

I'm certain that will be from 10 shots ON TARGET, not 10 shots total. Hell we had 7 shots just against West Brom. So the conversion rate isn't going to be anywhere near 60%.

Just checked and we have had 21 shots in the league. So that's 28.5% conversion rate. It's high of course, but nothing like 60%. The main reason for the high conversion rate is the Swansea game. They're a team who obsess over possession, it was at their ground, and they're vulnerable to the counter we used against them. 3 goals from 5 shots. We also don't need to win games 3-0 like we did there.

[Guest]

42 minutes ago, Mike E said:

I'm willing to be open-minded but even after your explanation I struggle to see the value in it. Maybe over the season I'll begin to appreciate it more.

I think I struggle because the 'opportunity' or value of a chance Vs half-chance is so subjective.

The model removes almost all subjectivity, that's the quality of it. It takes into account all the factors & gives you a tangible, objective figure from 0.0 to 1.0 for how likely a shot is to end in a goal. The models are extremely intricate and take 1000's of shots to create.

[1864roverite]

5 hours ago, roversfan99 said:

Reading are not only one of the very worst teams in the league but are also probably even more threadbare than us. Their subs bench on Saturday was a sub keeper and 6 kids whereas we at least have Dack, Dolan and Morton to come in should we feel the need to change anything.

As a team with the aim of improving upon 8th place and sitting pretty at the top, we should be feeling confident of beating such a poor opposition both in players and managers and any dropped points would be frustrating.

Reading hoodoo? Come on.

They were even shitter last season and look what happened! How many times have we won there in the last 10 games ?

[roversfan99]

Just now, 1864roverite said:

They were even shitter last season and look what happened! How many times have we won there in the last 10 games ?

Why is that particularly relevant? We lost to West Brom at home and Swansea away last season, but with many different players and a different manager. The guy who scored the winner last season has left. There isn't some sort of strange curse at the Madejski, it's coincidence.

They are one of the worst sides in the league, have loads of players out including Joao and Meite and have the worst keeper in the Championship and the worst manager. We have won all 3 games. I don't get why anyone would take a draw.

 

[JacknOry]

52 minutes ago, bluebruce said:

I'm certain that will be from 10 shots ON TARGET, not 10 shots total. Hell we had 7 shots just against West Brom. So the conversion rate isn't going to be anywhere near 60%.

Yes probably right, 10 on target. 

[DE.]

3 minutes ago, roversfan99 said:

Why is that particularly relevant? We lost to West Brom at home and Swansea away last season, but with many different players and a different manager. The guy who scored the winner last season has left. There isn't some sort of strange curse at the Madejski, it's coincidence.

They are one of the worst sides in the league, have loads of players out including Joao and Meite and have the worst keeper in the Championship and the worst manager. We have won all 3 games. I don't get why anyone would take a draw.

 

Spot on. Paul Ince himself said after Rotherham crushed them on Saturday that their team simply isn't good enough to deal with going behind in a game. If their own manager is admitting this we should have zero fear of going there.