v Stoke City (a) - 10/3/23

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

6 minutes ago, PotterLog said:

Right, I wasn’t sure about that.. thanks for the clarification.

Neil really improved our rolling xGD stats and we’re just starting to see some reflection of that in results. I feel somewhat optimistic, which makes a real change after the last six years or so.

Two teams in reasonably good form then, hopefully a decent game.

We played Leicester off the park last week at their place. We should have been able to declare at half time. As I said early - who wants to be out there the most tonight will count for a lot.

One team I played for played on a plateau. On days like this it was murder. If it was windy goal kicks barely got out of the penalty box. I can still hear the ref banging on the dressing room door - “ Come on lads, we kick off in 5 !”

[WacoRover]

I’m trying to catch up on team news, it’s been a busier week than normal. I see Scott Wharton is back in, Ayala & Dack still out. 

This game is a big challenge for Rovers, all three points would be a huge boost. Defending has been more than I could ask for (only allowed 4 goals in last 8 league games), even a 1-1 result would be welcome. 

[Sweaty Gussets]

18 minutes ago, PotterLog said:

Right, I wasn’t sure about that.. thanks for the clarification.

Neil really improved our rolling xGD stats and we’re just starting to see some reflection of that in results. I feel somewhat optimistic, which makes a real change after the last six years or so.

Two teams in reasonably good form then, hopefully a decent game.

You seem to either score 3+ goals or none. I'm hoping you're due the latter tonight!

[PotterLog]

33 minutes ago, J*B said:

I’m going to start selling magic beans to XG believers. 

 

Here’s a beanstalk for you to climb if you dare 😜

 

 

[PotterLog]

4 minutes ago, Sweaty Gussets said:

You seem to either score 3+ goals or none. I'm hoping you're due the latter tonight!

 

We are! 😁

[Mattyblue]

The XG-isation of football fans these past few years is such a strange  phenomenon. So many have lost their ability to use their eyes to judge footballers and teams.

We are *bottom* of the XG league as we eye up an outside chance of automatic promotion… say no more.

Edited March 10, 2023 by Mattyblue

[superniko]

17 minutes ago, Mattyblue said:

The XG-isation of football fans these past few years is such a strange  phenomenon. So many have lost their ability to use their eyes to judge footballers and teams.

We are *bottom* of the XG league as we eye up an outside chance of automatic promotion… say no more.

The xG gods would have had a field day with the "1-0 to the Arsenal" or the "Italian National Team in basically any era".

It's a classic case of a decent stat which can remove bias and luck, but is far far over-used (and I say that as somewhat of a fan of it)

Edited March 10, 2023 by superniko

[Admiral Nelsen]

1 hour ago, PotterLog said:

Good day Blackburn Roverers, long time no post. 
 

Thought I’d have a scan of your board ahead of the game and, without wishing to dive in ruffling feathers off the bat, I was rather taken aback at the positivity, given your team’s stats this season.. seeing people talking about the playoffs and “Stoke are 16th for a reason” etc… is there not a bit of an xG-shaped elephant in the room here? You’re doing well but over-performing on your chance creation to an extent that I think could be described as a freak occurrence - is it a concern…? maybe I’m missing something.

Aaanyway that said, as to the game we’re awful at home and generally seem to win one then lose one, so you’ve every right to expect a win. One thing I’d say is that if you come to attack we might stand a chance. The teams that routinely beat us at home tend to set up with a “low block”, as our manager likes to say, and nick the odd goal on the break. 
 

Maybe it’ll be a good game if you come looking for the win. We’ve actually started to create chances and score some goals in 2023, which is a novel development. No need to worry about Gayle mind, his technique has completely deserted him in his old age.

Our sub goalie is also a worry. Big blow to lose Sarkic so soon, he’d improved us a lot.

Safe travels to those going, mind how you go if it’s icy and enjoy the evening.

 

If we're being completely honest that was the case earlier in the season. We banked more points than our performances deserved going into the World Cup. 

That said, we've been very good recently, so that's where the optimism is coming from. Comfortably outplayed some of the lesser sides, but looked even more impressive in the last two against teams with much bigger wage bills. 

 

I saw someone on your message board say the first goal wins the game, and I think they're bang on. I just hope it's Rovers who get it. 

[arbitro]

I booked the train a few weeks ago to go to this game and just had an email to say the journey from Bolton to Manchester is cancelled. Driving it is then.

Good old Northern Fail.

[roverandout]

1 minute ago, arbitro said:

I booked the train a few weeks ago to go to this game and just had an email to say the journey from Bolton to Manchester is cancelled. Driving it is then.

Good old Northern Fail.

Same cnuts who fined me 100 pounds just because they failed to make it clear u need a ticket to go on the train.  I normally pay by card on the train. It was only a two minute journey.  Never taking the train again 

[Admiral Nelsen]

50 minutes ago, Mattyblue said:

The XG-isation of football fans these past few years is such a strange  phenomenon. So many have lost their ability to use their eyes to judge footballers and teams.

We are *bottom* of the XG league as we eye up an outside chance of automatic promotion… say no more.

 

I think it definitely has it's uses, but the tendency for some fans (often who don't have much of a clue of how it's put together) use it as a proxy for 'were we the best team or not?' without questioning it is really annoying.

 

When you get a situation like ours when xG has us as relegation fodder and the results show that we could get promoted, the response is always 'they must've fluked their position' instead of asking if there is something about the way that we play which means that xG isn't capturing our performance as well as it seems to do for other teams? Instead it's treated as this magic formula which measures whether you deserved to win or not (although I'm sure that clubs themselves won't look at it in that way). 

 

It's probably a bit of both in our case, because we weren't that fantastic before Christmas even though we were riding high. But equally how many games have we won this year when the opposition would've come away thinking that we've done a smash and grab on them? Only a few. The games where we've been poor, we've tended to get beat. 

[Mattyblue]

Emperor’s new clothes, the last fad was how having a load of possession was a sign of what a great side you were…

[B16Rover]

Interesting or alarming statistic here.  

 

Carter somehow our only qualifier and arguably out of position doing so

[Feed the Yak]

The only stat that matters is how many points we have. That along with what you see with your eyes tells you the correct story. We're right up there and as others have said, we're playing very well (this last couple of months).

We have a great chance to make it 6 wins on the bounce today. Clearly we'll drop points sooner or later but we should fear nobody right now.

[Officer Barbrady]

1 hour ago, PotterLog said:

Right, I wasn’t sure about that.. thanks for the clarification.

Neil really improved our rolling xGD stats and we’re just starting to see some reflection of that in results. I feel somewhat optimistic, which makes a real change after the last six years or so.

Two teams in reasonably good form then, hopefully a decent game.

Hope for a good game also and thank you for your posts.

And as a side note:Are you Chilean due to the Universidad avatar?Or did someone here give to you as a joke because of BBD lol?

[1864roverite]

18 minutes ago, roverandout said:

Same cnuts who fined me 100 pounds just because they failed to make it clear u need a ticket to go on the train.  I normally pay by card on the train. It was only a two minute journey.  Never taking the train again 

Oh yes there is no doubt they are poor service wise, but for me, if you get on a train without a ticket especially in this day and age (trainline etc) AND the fact that it is advertised ALL OVER every railway station and train carriage then it is your good self who had been made to look a cnut on this occasion😀

[rigger]

21 minutes ago, roverandout said:

Same cnuts who fined me 100 pounds just because they failed to make it clear u need a ticket to go on the train.  I normally pay by card on the train. It was only a two minute journey.  Never taking the train again 

Have you ever been on the two minute journey, and the conductor has not been round, so you got off without paying ?

[PotterLog]

36 minutes ago, Officer Barbrady said:

Hope for a good game also and thank you for your posts.

And as a side note:Are you Chilean due to the Universidad avatar?Or did someone here give to you as a joke because of BBD lol?

I’m from Stoke but live in Santiago, I joined your board to give my perspective when the bewildering Breretonmania happened and I’ve been dropping in every now and then since then 👋🏼

I like your board, it’s a lot more grown-up and reasonable than some.

[Mike E]

18 minutes ago, PotterLog said:

I’m from Stoke but live in Santiago, I joined your board to give my perspective when the bewildering Breretonmania happened and I’ve been dropping in every now and then since then 👋🏼

I like your board, it’s a lot more grown-up and reasonable than some.

Aw shucks 🥰 stop it you 😏

[bluebruce]

3 hours ago, PotterLog said:

Good day Blackburn Roverers, long time no post. 
 

Thought I’d have a scan of your board ahead of the game and, without wishing to dive in ruffling feathers off the bat, I was rather taken aback at the positivity, given your team’s stats this season.. seeing people talking about the playoffs and “Stoke are 16th for a reason” etc… is there not a bit of an xG-shaped elephant in the room here? You’re doing well but over-performing on your chance creation to an extent that I think could be described as a freak occurrence - is it a concern…? maybe I’m missing something.

Aaanyway that said, as to the game we’re awful at home and generally seem to win one then lose one, so you’ve every right to expect a win. One thing I’d say is that if you come to attack we might stand a chance. The teams that routinely beat us at home tend to set up with a “low block”, as our manager likes to say, and nick the odd goal on the break. 
 

Maybe it’ll be a good game if you come looking for the win. We’ve actually started to create chances and score some goals in 2023, which is a novel development. No need to worry about Gayle mind, his technique has completely deserted him in his old age.

Our sub goalie is also a worry. Big blow to lose Sarkic so soon, he’d improved us a lot.

Safe travels to those going, mind how you go if it’s icy and enjoy the evening.

'Won't somebody please think of the XG?!?'

No. I'm a fan of stats and data, but I think XG is the most useless one around (well, after possession). Imagine saying 'Yeh you're in 4th and we're 16th, but what about the XG?' I mean come on. If it was so important, we wouldn't be 4th would we? There was an argument to point to our low XG earlier in the season, when league position can be a bit deceptive, but for crying out loud it's March!

We're where we are because we've been one of the better sides in the league over the course of 35 games. You're where you are because you haven't. We're positive because we're on the back of two excellent performances and a 5-game winning streak that includes a Premiership scalp. We're talking about the playoffs because we are in the playoff spots!

You're in quite good form too, and you have home advantage. So if you do edge a win, or we do, or it's a draw, none of those outcomes should be a surprise to anyone. Either team winning by more than one would be a bit surprising, this should be a tight game that could go either way. My feathers aren't ruffled btw, I just thought it was rather silly to talk about XG given the greater context, or to be puzzled why we might be in a positive mindset. Sheff United fans were puzzled by our positivity too, then we beat them. With respect, they're a lot better than you are. But as I said, this will be a tough game, and you've probably as much chance at the 3 points as we do. All depends which Rovers and which Stoke turn up on the day, as usual in this league.

[PotterLog]

37 minutes ago, bluebruce said:

'Won't somebody please think of the XG?!?'

No. I'm a fan of stats and data, but I think XG is the most useless one around (well, after possession). Imagine saying 'Yeh you're in 4th and we're 16th, but what about the XG?' I mean come on. If it was so important, we wouldn't be 4th would we? There was an argument to point to our low XG earlier in the season, when league position can be a bit deceptive, but for crying out loud it's March!

We're where we are because we've been one of the better sides in the league over the course of 35 games. You're where you are because you haven't. We're positive because we're on the back of two excellent performances and a 5-game winning streak that includes a Premiership scalp. We're talking about the playoffs because we are in the playoff spots!

You're in quite good form too, and you have home advantage. So if you do edge a win, or we do, or it's a draw, none of those outcomes should be a surprise to anyone. Either team winning by more than one would be a bit surprising, this should be a tight game that could go either way. My feathers aren't ruffled btw, I just thought it was rather silly to talk about XG given the greater context, or to be puzzled why we might be in a positive mindset. Sheff United fans were puzzled by our positivity too, then we beat them. With respect, they're a lot better than you are. But as I said, this will be a tough game, and you've probably as much chance at the 3 points as we do. All depends which Rovers and which Stoke turn up on the day, as usual in this league.

Well I don’t wish to hijack the thread too much but I’d be a little concerned about next season if I were you, unless JDT can improve your processes of course, which he may well do. xG is the most reliable (long-term) predictor of outcomes there is and at the moment you’re a massive anomaly. A full season is still a small sample.

But there are plenty other factors, things can change fast (maybe already are) and I wish you the best, I’d like to see you back in the Prem and hope you make it. And I’m not for a second suggesting any of this will have any particular bearing on tonight’s match. I’m used to us being shite - I’m happy we seem to be finally, incrementally, improving but if form is anything to go by we're nailed on for a loss to nil tonight 🙄

Edited March 10, 2023 by PotterLog

[tomphil]

2 hours ago, arbitro said:

I booked the train a few weeks ago to go to this game and just had an email to say the journey from Bolton to Manchester is cancelled. Driving it is then.

Good old Northern Fail.

The 3 surest things in life

Death, taxes and being let down repeatedly by Northern Fail.

[Mercer]

4 hours ago, J*B said:

With the right backing, JDT’s taking us up. I guarantee it. It might not be this season but it happens. 

We are going up this season - I also guarantee it!

We are 16/1 for promotion which is unbelievably generous.  Money to be made, get in there.  £20 will give you a great trip to London to watch us win the play off final.

3/1 for Rovers' win again very generous and gut feel is that will be the score in our favour - lumped on Rovers at 9/2 at beginning of week.

Tough game tonight but think we'll have too much flair and energy for their defence to cope.

[Sweaty Gussets]

The problem with XG was exemplified by Basham's miss after he waltzed through our defence last weekend.  

He was clean though, with only the goalie to beat, fairly central and about 10-15 yards out. This fitted all the criteria for a high XG.

The problem was it was a central defender with the chance, who happened to lose his footing just before he shot. XG doesn't take that into consideration. 

XG is a stat without context, as most stats are.

 

[bluebruce]

18 minutes ago, PotterLog said:

Well I don’t wish to hijack the thread too much but I’d be a little concerned about next season if I were you, unless JDT can improve your processes of course, which he may well do. xG is the most reliable (long-term) predictor of outcomes there is and at the moment you’re a massive anomaly. A full season is still a small sample.

But there are plenty other factors, things can change fast (maybe already are) and I wish you the best, I’d like to see you back in the Prem and hope you make it. And I’m not for a second suggesting any of this will have any particular bearing on tonight’s match. I’m used to us being shite - I’m happy we seem to be finally, incrementally, improving but if form is anything to go by we're nailed on for a loss to nil tonight 🙄

If a full season is still a small sample, that only goes to emphasise how it isn't that great a predictor. And recent matches suggest JDT already has improved our processes. We absolutely battered Leicester. I don't know what our XG was for that game, but there is a post on here showing a Leicester fan on their forum saying we should probably have been 6 or 7 up. I'm only worried for next season if JDT leaves or isn't backed.

If you expect a defeat why were you puzzled by our positivity?