v Stoke City (a) - 10/3/23

[Sweaty Gussets]

J*B and Mercer guaranteeing promotion.

We're going down. 

[bluebruce]

1 minute ago, Sweaty Gussets said:

The problem with XG was exemplified by Basham's miss after he waltzed through our defence last weekend.  

He was clean though, with only the goalie to beat, fairly central and about 10-15 yards out. This fitted all the criteria for a high XG.

The problem was it was a central defender with the chance, who happened to lose his footing just before he shot. XG doesn't take that into consideration. 

XG is a stat without context, as most stats are.

 

Yep, creating chances is only as useful as the players on the end of those chances. Making loads of chances but having Chris Brown taking them isn't gonna help. I also see lots of games with less XG than actual goals, sometimes games where any watcher would say there should have been more. It's a load of rusty old bollocks as far as I'm concerned. No stat should be used in isolation without wider context and analysis as you say.

[PotterLog]

2 minutes ago, bluebruce said:

If a full season is still a small sample, that only goes to emphasise how it isn't that great a predictor. And recent matches suggest JDT already has improved our processes. We absolutely battered Leicester. I don't know what our XG was for that game, but there is a post on here showing a Leicester fan on their forum saying we should probably have been 6 or 7 up. I'm only worried for next season if JDT leaves or isn't backed.

If you expect a defeat why were you puzzled by our positivity?

I guess I just meant overall I expected to see more concern about your stats. But if you don’t read too much into it, fair enough. You’re obviously the ones watching every week.

I don’t “expect a defeat” as such, it just wouldn’t surprise me. I don’t know what to think about it honestly, I’m kind of just hoping it’s a good open game, as opposed to our customary 0-1 home reversals to teams that score early then sit in two banks and waste time for 78 minutes.

[Silas]

1 minute ago, PotterLog said:

...as opposed to our customary 0-1 home reversals to teams that score early then sit in two banks and waste time for 78 minutes.

If we score in the first 15 mins I'd stop watching then.

Think we've had a player booked for time wasting in the 1st half this season. 😂

If not that, it was very early in the 2nd. 

[Sweaty Gussets]

2 minutes ago, PotterLog said:

as opposed to our customary 0-1 home reversals to teams that score early then sit in two banks and waste time for 78 minutes.

That's how we won most of our games in the first half of the season. The football was turgid, but JDT has them well-drilled and comfortable defending their own box in a 'low block' (or plain old 'defending deep' in old money!) after going 1 up.

The football has improved markedly in the last month. I'm not sure if that's because of personnel, tactics, or a bit of both. 

[Displaced Rover]

 

6 minutes ago, PotterLog said:

I guess I just meant overall I expected to see more concern about your stats. But if you don’t read too much into it, fair enough. You’re obviously the ones watching every week.

I don’t “expect a defeat” as such, it just wouldn’t surprise me. I don’t know what to think about it honestly, I’m kind of just hoping it’s a good open game, as opposed to our customary 0-1 home reversals to teams that score early then sit in two banks and waste time for 78 minutes.

At the start of this season when we were on a great run but had shit xG stats there were a few posts "concerned" about it (myself included)

But in the last month or so we've certaintly passed the eye test, including creating about 38 great chances at Leicester. If we turn up this evening as we have in recent weeks we'll dick you 3/4-nil. 

[DE.]

16 minutes ago, Sweaty Gussets said:

XG is a stat without context, as most stats are.

Pretty much. XG can be meaningful and add significant value to a model that incorporates other relevent statistics, but on its own can only reveal a small piece of the overall puzzle.

[rigger]

6 minutes ago, DE. said:

Pretty much. XG can be meaningful and add significant value to a model that incorporates other relevent statistics, but on its own can only reveal a small piece of the overall puzzle.

I may be easily distracted, but the only two words in your post that stuck in my mind are, model and statistics.

Edited March 10, 2023 by rigger

[slowmo]

28 minutes ago, Sweaty Gussets said:

J*B and Mercer guaranteeing promotion.

We're going down. 

Was 8-1 before Sheffield game , would be rude not to at that 

[Exiled_Rover]

23 minutes ago, PotterLog said:

I guess I just meant overall I expected to see more concern about your stats. But if you don’t read too much into it, fair enough. You’re obviously the ones watching every week.

I don’t “expect a defeat” as such, it just wouldn’t surprise me. I don’t know what to think about it honestly, I’m kind of just hoping it’s a good open game, as opposed to our customary 0-1 home reversals to teams that score early then sit in two banks and waste time for 78 minutes.

The stats don't match up with what we're watching on the pitch.

We've been out-xG'd by both QPR and Sheffield Utd in our last two games. We battered QPR and handily saw off Sheffield Utd.

[Sweaty Gussets]

Stoke City v Blackburn Rovers: LIVE match & score updates | Lancashire Telegraph

[Mercer]

38 minutes ago, Sweaty Gussets said:

That's how we won most of our games in the first half of the season. The football was turgid, but JDT has them well-drilled and comfortable defending their own box in a 'low block' (or plain old 'defending deep' in old money!) after going 1 up.

The football has improved markedly in the last month. I'm not sure if that's because of personnel, tactics, or a bit of both. 

Think a bit of both!

We don't p1ss about with the ball as much at the back and think we've started to mix our game up a bit with a more direct approach at times.

JRC and Carter have made a big difference at the back, Travis now far more effective, Smzodics has great energy, Dolan coming on in leaps and bounds and Gallagher playing where he should!

[bluebruce]

46 minutes ago, PotterLog said:

I guess I just meant overall I expected to see more concern about your stats. But if you don’t read too much into it, fair enough. You’re obviously the ones watching every week.

I don’t “expect a defeat” as such, it just wouldn’t surprise me. I don’t know what to think about it honestly, I’m kind of just hoping it’s a good open game, as opposed to our customary 0-1 home reversals to teams that score early then sit in two banks and waste time for 78 minutes.

Some bad news for you...if you're vulnerable to that, it's pretty much our strong point. Sounds like if we score first we will win. On the other hand you'll be happy to know we are pretty dreadful at getting back in the game if we concede first. This has improved slightly recently though.

[bluebruce]

(Nevermind, misread the post I was quoting)

Edited March 10, 2023 by bluebruce

[superniko]

1 hour ago, PotterLog said:

Well I don’t wish to hijack the thread too much but I’d be a little concerned about next season if I were you, unless JDT can improve your processes of course, which he may well do. xG is the most reliable (long-term) predictor of outcomes there is and at the moment you’re a massive anomaly. A full season is still a small sample.

🙄

You’re right - there will be some tricky fixtures at Anfield and Etihad! 😁

[bluebruce]

I'm more concerned by comments from a couple of players since Saturday that we feel invincible, the game being on Sky, and JDT being nominated for Manager of the Month, than I am by XG. Those are the usual omens of our imminent demise! The Sky curse has been less prevalent lately, but I certainly hope JDT doesn't actually win Manager of the Month...

[superniko]

1 hour ago, Mercer said:

We are going up this season - I also guarantee it!

We are 16/1 for promotion which is unbelievably generous.  Money to be made, get in there.  £20 will give you a great trip to London to watch us win the play off final.

3/1 for Rovers' win again very generous and gut feel is that will be the score in our favour - lumped on Rovers at 9/2 at beginning of week.

Tough game tonight but think we'll have too much flair and energy for their defence to cope.

Not far off 2000/1 for the FA Cup and Promotion double Merce…..you’re a believer! Just think of the cellar you could install!

[chaddyrovers]

5 hours ago, J*B said:

With the right backing, JDT’s taking us up. I guarantee it. It might not be this season but it happens. 

JDT is right man to help us achieve our targets and get promotion back to PL whether its this season or next season. 

5 hours ago, PotterLog said:

Thought I’d have a scan of your board ahead of the game and, without wishing to dive in ruffling feathers off the bat, I was rather taken aback at the positivity, given your team’s stats this season.. seeing people talking about the playoffs and “Stoke are 16th for a reason” etc… is there not a bit of an xG-shaped elephant in the room here? You’re doing well but over-performing on your chance creation to an extent that I think could be described as a freak occurrence - is it a concern…? maybe I’m missing something.

Far too focus on stats and XG from you instead of focus on results and league table which is what matters

1 hour ago, Mercer said:

We are going up this season - I also guarantee it!

We are 16/1 for promotion which is unbelievably generous.  Money to be made, get in there.  £20 will give you a great trip to London to watch us win the play off final.

3/1 for Rovers' win again very generous and gut feel is that will be the score in our favour - lumped on Rovers at 9/2 at beginning of week.

Tough game tonight but think we'll have too much flair and energy for their defence to cope.

Mercer, it was only a few months ago when you had massive concerns over JDT so what change you mind and are you willing to admit that you were wrong about him whilst others including myself were right about JDT and him being the right head coach for this club?

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

13 minutes ago, bluebruce said:

I'm more concerned by comments from a couple of players since Saturday that we feel invincible, the game being on Sky, and JDT being nominated for Manager of the Month, than I am by XG. Those are the usual omens of our imminent demise! The Sky curse has been less prevalent lately, but I certainly hope JDT doesn't actually win Manager of the Month...

United probably thought they had a good chance at Liverpool at the weekend. Go anywhere with the wrong attitude and you’ll come unstuck. This is going to be a really tough game, anybody who thinks otherwise is fooling themselves. Games are only easy when you’ve made them easy.

[yeti-dog]

1 hour ago, PotterLog said:

Well I don’t wish to hijack the thread too much but I’d be a little concerned about next season if I were you, unless JDT can improve your processes of course, which he may well do. xG is the most reliable (long-term) predictor of outcomes there is and at the moment you’re a massive anomaly. A full season is still a small sample.

But there are plenty other factors, things can change fast (maybe already are) and I wish you the best, I’d like to see you back in the Prem and hope you make it. And I’m not for a second suggesting any of this will have any particular bearing on tonight’s match. I’m used to us being shite - I’m happy we seem to be finally, incrementally, improving but if form is anything to go by we're nailed on for a loss to nil tonight 🙄

I appreciate xG is in fashion but the one I'm more into is aG (actual goals...) I believe xg doesn't actually guarantee the ball has gone in the back of the net? In fact an xg of 4.75 when a team ends a game goal-less suggests they couldn't hit a cows arse with a banjo/ score in a brothel which would be of greater concern for me.....

Edited March 10, 2023 by yeti-dog

[roverandout]

3 hours ago, rigger said:

Have you ever been on the two minute journey, and the conductor has not been round, so you got off without paying ?

Yes a few times

[roverandout]

3 hours ago, 1864roverite said:

Oh yes there is no doubt they are poor service wise, but for me, if you get on a train without a ticket especially in this day and age (trainline etc) AND the fact that it is advertised ALL OVER every railway station and train carriage then it is your good self who had been made to look a cnut on this occasion😀

Yes but church and Oswaldtwistle station is a shithole. No advertisements. The speakers are barely audible 

[ItsRoverZ]

Same squad as last weekend, very nice 

I have a bad gut feeling about tonight but I hope this rovers team can prove why the excitement is building up! Coyb!

[PotterLog]

13 minutes ago, yeti-dog said:

I appreciate xG is in fashion but the one I'm more into is aG (actual goals...) I believe xg doesn't actually guarantee the ball has gone in the back of the net? In fact an xg of 4.75 when a team ends a game goal-less suggests they couldn't hit a cows arse with a banjo/ score in a brothel which would be of greater concern for me.....

Your aGs don’t exactly look too clever either to be fair 😉

Looks like you’re improving though, both statistically and from what you guys have said here. You’re in a great position.

[PotterLog]

https://twitter.com/stokecity/status/1634267884640784395?s=20