We are going down (the pessimism thread)

[J*B]

I think all of the following are most at risk than us as things stand, but that might change...

Rotherham - as good as done

Sheff Weds - pretty much certain

Birmingham - in free fall but I think will make it

Plymouth - most at risk

QPR - have enough about them to avoid it 

Stoke - will get out of it

So I reckon the table finishes something like:

QPR
Stoke
Rovers

Big Club

Plymouth

Sheff Weds

Rotherham 

 

[frosty]

Before the last two games against Leeds and Ipswich, Sheff Weds had won four in a row (or five out of six, with the one game they didn't win being against Leicester). Am I missing something with them? One point off safety. I'd definitely have them more likely to survive than a few others.

[superniko]

I wasn’t sure which thread to post this in, but it caught my eye and it’s something everyone here has probably assumed over time, and now with evidence to show it as fact (that we are horrendous at set pieces). 
Set Piece GA vs GF with colour coded dot based on position in the league 

Weren’t we advertising a ‘set-piece coach’ at one point? I assume nothing came of it, but whoever is in charge of this specialist area is grossly underachieving, as have our players throughout the season. 

Edited March 19 by superniko

[superniko]

I think 2 wins does it for us on 48 points. 

There are only 8 games left. 2 wins for us means 2 of Wednesday, Birmingham and Huddersfield need 10+ points thanks to our GD, so they can only lose 4 max out of their 8. 
It’ll be difficult for 2 of them to perform to that level and also QPR, Stoke, Plymouth all picking up more than us. 

Beat Sheffield Wednesday + 1 other and we’ll be safe, preferably sooner rather than later. 

[Roverthechimp]

19 minutes ago, superniko said:

I think 2 wins does it for us on 48 points. 

There are only 8 games left. 2 wins for us means 2 of Wednesday, Birmingham and Huddersfield need 10+ points thanks to our GD, so they can only lose 4 max out of their 8. 
It’ll be difficult for 2 of them to perform to that level and also QPR, Stoke, Plymouth all picking up more than us. 

Beat Sheffield Wednesday + 1 other and we’ll be safe, preferably sooner rather than later. 

I honestly think we will lose the Sheffield Wed game and end up going down by 1 point

[rovers11]

4 hours ago, J*B said:

I think all of the following are most at risk than us as things stand, but that might change...

Rotherham - as good as done

Sheff Weds - pretty much certain

Birmingham - in free fall but I think will make it

Plymouth - most at risk

QPR - have enough about them to avoid it 

Stoke - will get out of it

So I reckon the table finishes something like:

QPR
Stoke
Rovers

Big Club

Plymouth

Sheff Weds

Rotherham 

 

Not sure about Sheff W. They've shown they can pick up wins and they have a kind fixture list so I think they'll be OK.

Us, Plymouth, and Hudds seem to struggle the most to pick up 3 points so are in the greatest danger imo. 

[simongarnerisgod]

rotherham are sunk

huddersfield look in very bad shape

all about the final place,as it stands it looks like birmingham and stoke who are struggling,we were are undoubtedly shite we are picking up points,albeit one at a time,our run in is very concerning though,imo it was crucial we got 6 points from millwall and plymouth,we did`nt and will probably regret not doing so

[Hasta]

47 / 48 points may well keep us up, but may still lead to a nervous last day where someone else needs to do us a favour.

Id hope we are safe before we go to Leicester.

Edited March 19 by Hasta

[Armchair supporter supremo]

4 hours ago, Roverthechimp said:

I honestly think we will lose the Sheffield Wed game and end up going down by 1 point

After missing out on the playoffs by one point last season it would be a true Venkism to get relegated by one point this season. 

 

Everything crossed we scrape a couple of wins together soon though 🙏🙏

[philipl]

Rowet's temporary appointment at Birmingham is bad news but we really shouldn't be looking to others' misfortune. 

We have a 3 point and slight goal difference headstart over 22nd place and have to make it count.

[Waggy76]

21 hours ago, Armchair supporter supremo said:

After missing out on the playoffs by one point last season it would be a true Venkism to get relegated by one point this season. 

 

Everything crossed we scrape a couple of wins together soon though 🙏🙏

Well , they have set up that scenario up , hopefully for us fans we'll stay up...

Venkys, Waggott & Pasha won't give a shit either way !

[Cuppliance]

I saw a decent analysis of the Championship relegation scenario recently. Ill post the link for anyone interested and that particular persons opinion was one in our favor.

 

[Salgados Hair]

On 21/03/2024 at 12:59, Cuppliance said:

I saw a decent analysis of the Championship relegation scenario recently. Ill post the link for anyone interested and that particular persons opinion was one in our favor.

 

Another view...

 

[Ricky]

We needed wins against Plymouth and Millwall (so of course we decided to play with an additional CB). Plymouth battered us. Our form is a worry and we have a tough run in.

Sheffield Wednesday game becomes another must win. We’ll play 5 at the back and get a draw or lose to a late scrappy set piece. 

[Upside Down]

There are no must win games for this club because the aim of the season is to get relegated to league one.

[G Somerset Rover]

1 win in 18. This surely has to be the worst run in my lifetime at least.

I am convinced we’re down. When - not if - we fall into that bottom 3, we won’t be getting back out.

Edited March 29 by G Somerset Rover

[Blue blood]

Whilst I can't see us winning, the same can be said of a number of other teams too. Plymouth, Brum, Huddersfield over the last few weeks have looked like they won't win another game. Sheff Weds charge has stalled. And all these teams probably need to get double the amount of wins we do to overtake us. With 7 games left I can't see it happening. 

[philipl]

To be exact in the next 7 games

For Rovers to go down

Two of Birmingham, Huddersfield and Wednesday need to get 4 points more than we do

And

Plymouth need to get one point more than we do 

Far from impossible but not the most likely outcome if our defending continues  the way it is doing under Eustace not forgetting Carter is now available for the first time in his tenure.

[davulsukur]

Rotherham aside, all the other teams around/below us have it in them to grab a win from no where. We're the only team that doesn't have a win in them.

We'll go down.

[G Somerset Rover]

If this chap is correct, we have a club and side full of record breakers. Congratulations to all involved - particularly the owners for pulling off the unthinkable yet again.

Edited March 30 by G Somerset Rover

[MarkBRFC]

We're very lucky our previous manager worked miracles to get the points on board that he did before December.

That's what will end up keeping us up.

Agree with the above, Hudds & Brum look dire and not convinced either will win again this season. Same with Plymouth.

One win will do us. 

[47er]

The day Kaminski went to Luton I wrote "this will come back to haunt us"

Relegation looms just to save a measly £2M. It'll cost us way more than that.

[Hasta]

Games against other relegation teams in red. Games against teams in with a chance of promotion or play offs in blue.

 

 

Edited March 30 by Hasta

[Hasta]

42 minutes ago, MarkBRFC said:

We're very lucky our previous manager worked miracles to get the points on board that he did before December.

That's what will end up keeping us up.

Agree with the above, Hudds & Brum look dire and not convinced either will win again this season. Same with Plymouth.

One win will do us. 

Problem is Birmingham have got Rotherham and they also play Hudds. Quite a few teams play each other. I still think it's more like 5 or 6 points we need.

[Blue blood]

10 minutes ago, Hasta said:

Games against other relegation teams in red. Games against teams in with a chance of promotion or play offs in blue.

 

 

The positive of this is that when they play other relegation rivals they both can't pick up 3 points. Plymouth have the best run in from that. Millwall in particular have been strong of late, and Stoke are doing OK but both will be safe by then (I was rather wrong about Stoke) and perhaps might be better classed as black fixtures.  

Outside of us QPR and Brum have the toughest fixture lists. QPR really need to get points before their very difficult last few games and Brum from that fixture list alone must be favorites to go down. 

Good work BTW Hasta!