We are going down (the pessimism thread)

[all you need is duff]

The QPR winner yesterday is the sort of thing Eustace’s rovers would never be brave enough to get (see Hyam calming the fans down in injury time vs Millwall). It’s the 92nd minute, they’re drawing 1-1 in a massive relegation six pointer, the centre back goes up field for the goalkeeper’s kick to get a winner 

[wilsdenrover]

Looking at the teams below us (excluding Rotherham) - since Eustace took over this mini table is as follow:

Sheffield Wed - 8 played 13 points 

Huddersfield - 8 played 8 points  

Birmingham - 9 played 7 points 

Rovers - 9 played 6 points

Plymouth 9 played 5 points

Extrapolating that form  to the end of the season produces:

Sheffield Wednesday 47 points

Huddersfield 47 points

Rovers 46 points 

——————————-

Plymouth 45 points

Birmingham 44 points

Everything’s going to be fine, right??…

 

Edited March 30 by wilsdenrover

[RTM08]

5 hours ago, all you need is duff said:

The QPR winner yesterday is the sort of thing Eustace’s rovers would never be brave enough to get (see Hyam calming the fans down in injury time vs Millwall). It’s the 92nd minute, they’re drawing 1-1 in a massive relegation six pointer, the centre back goes up field for the goalkeeper’s kick to get a winner 

If we go down by a point Hyam needs to be stripped of the captaincy for that. Well, in my opinion he shouldn't be anyway but that really does epitomise the lack of ambition and standards at the club currently.

[Waggy76]

6 hours ago, all you need is duff said:

The QPR winner yesterday is the sort of thing Eustace’s rovers would never be brave enough to get (see Hyam calming the fans down in injury time vs Millwall). It’s the 92nd minute, they’re drawing 1-1 in a massive relegation six pointer, the centre back goes up field for the goalkeeper’s kick to get a winner 

That scenario, was the same under Mowbray and JDT....

[Upside Down]

1 hour ago, RTM08 said:

If we go down by a point Hyam needs to be stripped of the captaincy for that. Well, in my opinion he shouldn't be anyway but that really does epitomise the lack of ambition and standards at the club currently.

They'll only give it to some other gutless coward so what's the point?

[lraC]

On 30/03/2024 at 15:11, wilsdenrover said:

Looking at the teams below us (excluding Rotherham) - since Eustace took over this mini table is as follow:

Sheffield Wed - 8 played 13 points 

Huddersfield - 8 played 8 points  

Birmingham - 9 played 7 points 

Rovers - 9 played 6 points

Plymouth 9 played 5 points

Extrapolating that form  to the end of the season produces:

Sheffield Wednesday 47 points

Huddersfield 47 points

Rovers 46 points 

——————————-

Plymouth 45 points

Birmingham 44 points

Everything’s going to be fine, right??…

 

Here is my view on the situation, using Rovers and  the teams currently below us and their remaining fixtures.

Rovers

Sunderland L, Southampton L Bristol City D Leeds L Sheff Weds  W Coventry D Leicester L 47 Points

 Sheffield Weds

Boro L, QPR D,  Norwich D,  Stoke  W Rovers L West Brom D,  Sunderland  W Points  48 

Hud

Stoke D, Millwall  W, PNE L Bristol City D Swans W, Birmingham D IPS L 48 

Birmingham 

PNE D, Leicester L Cardiff W, Coventry D, Rotherham W, Huddersfield D Nor D 49 

Plymouth 

Bristol City W, Rotherham W, QPR D, Stoke L, Millwall L Hull L 48

 

 

[wilsdenrover]

39 minutes ago, lraC said:

Here is my view on the situation, using Rovers and  the teams currently below us and their remaining fixtures.

Rovers

Sunderland L, Southampton L Bristol City D Leeds L Sheff Weds  W Coventry D Leicester L 47 Points

 Sheffield Weds

Boro L, QPR D,  Norwich D,  Stoke  W Rovers L West Brom D,  Sunderland  W Points  48 

Hud

Stoke D, Millwall  W, PNE L Bristol City D Swans W, Birmingham D IPS L 48 

Birmingham 

PNE D, Leicester L Cardiff W, Coventry D, Rotherham W, Huddersfield D Nor D 49 

Plymouth 

Bristol City W, Rotherham W, QPR D, Stoke L, Millwall L Hull L 48

 

 

Hopefully you’re wrong - starting with today 🤞

[lraC]

15 minutes ago, wilsdenrover said:

Hopefully you’re wrong - starting with today 🤞

I sincerely hope so.

[philipl]

Effectively with goal difference, Huddersfield have 6 games to make up 6 points on us and Sheffield Wednesday have to make up 7 points.

I will get lynched for this but Sheffield Wednesday home is a MUST NOT LOSE. Draw that and Wednesday only have 5 games to get those 7 points in and that is assuming we lose the other games.

After the performances against Newcastle and Ipswich and the tonic of a 5-1 away win, there is no reason at all that we shouldn't be extremely competitive against Southampton Leeds Coventry and Leicester- play the way we can and by the law of averages we will get something breaking our way in one or more of those games.

We are not safe but our road to safety is now clearly marked.

Edited April 1 by philipl

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

We need another 3 points I think. It’s doable.

[47er]

Pretty confident we'll stay up now. Dependent on avoiding injuries to key players with JRC possibly the most valuable to us of all. Sorry Sammi!

We played a blinder and that should vastly up our confidence. No reason why we can't play like that again.

I expect we'll get the points from those remaining fixtures where the other side has nothing to play for.

Points against the likes of Southampton and Leicester would be a bonus.

Be a good time to sell us if we stay up. Its the most you'll ever get Venkys!

Otherwise we stay up and face yet another transfer window farce and the problems kick off all over again.

[roverblue]

I’m still not convinced, the teams below and around us have all picked up points over the last 10 games and will continue to do so.

Think we need another two wins at this point but maybe less as the games tick down.

A positive under Eustace is we haven’t been thumped by anyone and rarely lost so might pick up enough just from draws.

[lraC]

17 hours ago, philipl said:

Effectively with goal difference, Huddersfield have 6 games to make up 6 points on us and Sheffield Wednesday have to make up 7 points.

I will get lynched for this but Sheffield Wednesday home is a MUST NOT LOSE. Draw that and Wednesday only have 5 games to get those 7 points in and that is assuming we lose the other games.

After the performances against Newcastle and Ipswich and the tonic of a 5-1 away win, there is no reason at all that we shouldn't be extremely competitive against Southampton Leeds Coventry and Leicester- play the way we can and by the law of averages we will get something breaking our way in one or more of those games.

We are not safe but our road to safety is now clearly marked.

The Sheff Weds game has now become a must not lose rather than must win now, so I don't think you will be lynched.

By the time the game comes around, we may be all but safe, as I think 3 or 4 points from the 3 games before that, will mean it is all over bar the shouting, for us at least.

Edited April 2 by lraC

[Admiral Nelsen]

21 hours ago, philipl said:

Effectively with goal difference, Huddersfield have 6 games to make up 6 points on us and Sheffield Wednesday have to make up 7 points.

I will get lynched for this but Sheffield Wednesday home is a MUST NOT LOSE. Draw that and Wednesday only have 5 games to get those 7 points in and that is assuming we lose the other games.

After the performances against Newcastle and Ipswich and the tonic of a 5-1 away win, there is no reason at all that we shouldn't be extremely competitive against Southampton Leeds Coventry and Leicester- play the way we can and by the law of averages we will get something breaking our way in one or more of those games.

We are not safe but our road to safety is now clearly marked.

 

Agree with all of this.

 

Not sure if this has been mentioned elsewhere but the Coventry game also comes as their third match in six days after they play Man United in the FA Cup semi. Whereas we have the full week following Shef Weds. Still a game that we need to go out and win, but it takes the edge off a fixture which otherwise would look tricky with their recent form.

[Ewood Ace]

I think one more win should do it. I can't see two of Plymouth, Wednesday and Huddersfield getting to 48 points. And with the later two's goal differences they would probably need 49 points to overtake us

[Admiral Nelsen]

8 minutes ago, Ewood Ace said:

I think one more win should do it. I can't see two of Plymouth, Wednesday and Huddersfield getting to 48 points. And with the later two's goal differences they would probably need 49 points to overtake us

 

If that one win is alongside a draw or two I think you're right. By itself, I'm still very nervous. Plymouth still have Rotherham, Stoke, QPR and Millwall to play, alongside Hull who have nothing to play for.  Huddersfield have both got several winnable games too, although 49 points is probably beyond Wednesday looking at their fixtures. 

 

 

[Silas]

This time last week I expected us to lose our next 2 games.

That would see us tonight on the edge of a cliff, out the bottom 3 on GD, in awful form, and looking nailed on for relegation. 

As it is, one single win from here puts us 7 clear with better goal difference. That would basically mean teams would need better than 2 wins and a draw from the last 5 games.

Some ask that for clubs in a scrap.

I'm a hell of a lot happier and more confident than this time last Sat. Where I was still fuming about the ref the day before. 

[philipl]

I wouldn't want to be going into the last two fixtures without our future secured.

Coventry are likely to be coming to Ewood needing a win for the play-offs and if the table is as tight on the last day as it is this evening, Leicester would take the title with a win and drop into the play-offs with a loss..

As it is, perm any 2 from 9 to go down.

Edited April 6 by philipl

[Exiled_Rover]

2 minutes ago, philipl said:

I wouldn't want to be going into the last two fixtures without our future secured.

Coventry are likely to be coming to Ewood needing a win for the play-offs and if the table is as tight on the last day as it is this evening, Leicester would take the title with a win and drop into the play-offs with a loss..

As it is, perm any 2 from 9 to go down.

It'd be sweet to deny Coventry a Playoff place after the shit they pulled last year.

[philipl]

Doing my extrapolation for current form plus a bonus 3 points for playing Rotherham, the final table after the last 5 games:

15 Swansea 54pts (they have Stoke H, Rotherham H, Huddersfield A, Norwich A, Millwall H so will have a big impact!)

16 Stoke 54 

17 QPR 53

18 Rovers 52

19 Plymouth 48

20 Millwall 48

21 Birmingham 48

22 Huddersfield 48 (Down by a goal difference 2 worse than big club)

23 Sheffield Wednesday 46

[47er]

On 03/04/2024 at 03:09, Admiral Nelsen said:

Plymouth still have Rotherham, Stoke, QPR and Millwall to play

Surely we can't lose there?---if Plymouth were to win any of those games it would push one of those clubs nearer to the drop?

If they don't, they are down.

[roverblue]

Feels nailed on after last night, the goal difference was a big thing in our favour but after last night and presumably another drubbing at Leeds it will count for nowt.

Us and Birmingham to drop.

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

46 minutes ago, roverblue said:

Feels nailed on after last night, the goal difference was a big thing in our favour but after last night and presumably another drubbing at Leeds it will count for nowt.

Us and Birmingham to drop.

Yeah, it wasn’t just getting hammered last night it was the damage it did to our goal difference.

[Dreams of 1995]

Last night was grim

Right now, the Rovers squad is as weak as it has been since our last Championship relegation. And there are real parallels between the state of our club then and now. Off field disruption and a chronic lack of investment, coupled with the fallout between an ambitious manager and the club

But when you look back at our last 3 / 4 windows, you could really see this coming

We have lost Kaminski, Ayala, Brereton and Bradley Dack. I actually think the loss of Dack was the worst thing to happen to the dressing room. He was clearly a very big figure; he played with a smile on his face too, and that is infectious. Same with Brereton, who seemed a very happy figure, and the harmony of that dressing room just appeared to be perfect. The social media antics whilst obviously a bit staged, showed a very real chemistry between players

Mixed in with the leaders like above, you'd have Travis & Szmodics; before that, you had Bradley Johnson and Lenihan. We have lost some massive players recently and we haven't replaced them with like for like players

In the window where you lose Ayala, BBD, Dack and Kaminski, you are expecting players to come in who can fill that void. Instead, we have asked existing players to step up, like Dom Hyam, Sam Gallagher and Sammie. Only Szmodics has done, but I do worry at times about his temperament; unlike Dack, he doesn't play with a smile on his face, and is that following through to the dressing room?

I can't remember players who were at that "senior council" meeting (farce). I'm sure it was Hyam, Sammie, Sam G and Ryan Hedges. Compare that with what we have lost - it is night & day. This vacuum of leadership we suffer with at board level has once again permeated the playing staff. Last time that happened, we went down

I am starting to think that the success of this club depends entirely on appointing a manager that keeps his dealings close. We cannot operate with a DOF as they are hamstrung at board level. Really, we want to be turning back to a Mowbray type figure, who can work with the constraints of distant owners, and who is happy to operate at all levels of the club so that at least they have oversight from the person responsible for the playing performance

[Upside Down]

This is the shittest Rovers squad I have ever seen.

I'd say you'll have to look back to the early seventies for worse and even then I'm not sure they were as bad as this side.

Soft cunts the lot of them. Not fit to walk within a hundred miles of Ewood Park let alone play for this club.