Relegation - the Cost.

[arbitro]

With relegation arguably a realistic proposition I did a bit of digging and come up with some numbers. These are taken from an article in the Athletic from October last year. Currently Championship clubs get £5.19m in solidarity payments and £3.92m from the EFL. This is over £9m as a Championship club. As a League One club it drops to £780k and £950k for both payments leaving a difference of over £7m. Factor in less season and match day tickets, less income from away supporters at Ewood, less commercial and hospitality income and it could leave a £10m hole. 

A relegation would be catastrophic and in my view inevitably lead to administration. I really don't know if the people running the club have weighed up the implications. I would like this to be asked at the next Fans Forum and for Waggott to be put on the spot and interrogated as to how we could carry on.

https://theathletic.com/4957498/2023/10/16/epl-efl-explained-deal-english-football/

[Mattyblue]

Court case aside, I can’t see them ever putting the club into administration, regardless of division.

[danger19_80]

New Sky EFL deal comes into play next season too which will presumably be worth more to Championship clubs

https://www.efl.com/news/2023/may/efl-and-sky-sports-broadcast-rights-agreement/

[arbitro]

Whilst P&S doesn't apply to League One clubs they have a scheme called Salary Cost Management Protocol which reads like a salary cap. What isn't clear is if there is a transitional period for relegated clubs.

What is Salary Cost Management Protocol (SCMP)?

Salary Cost Management Protocol (SCMP) is the Financial Fair Play rules for all League One and League Two Clubs.  

The SCMP requirement is whereby a Club’s Player-Related Expenditure shall not exceed the sum of 60% or 50% of the Club’s Relevant Turnover for League One and League Two Clubs respectively.  

The Reporting Period in respect of which a Club is assessed for the purpose of the SCMP Requirement is the 12 month period recorded in the Club’s Annual Accounts. 

The full SCMP regulations can be found here

[DE.]

47 minutes ago, arbitro said:

With relegation arguably a realistic proposition I did a bit of digging and come up with some numbers. These are taken from an article in the Athletic from October last year. Currently Championship clubs get £5.19m in solidarity payments and £3.92m from the EFL. This is over £9m as a Championship club. As a League One club it drops to £780k and £950k for both payments leaving a difference of over £7m. Factor in less season and match day tickets, less income from away supporters at Ewood, less commercial and hospitality income and it could leave a £10m hole. 

A relegation would be catastrophic and in my view inevitably lead to administration. I really don't know if the people running the club have weighed up the implications. I would like this to be asked at the next Fans Forum and for Waggott to be put on the spot and interrogated as to how we could carry on.

https://theathletic.com/4957498/2023/10/16/epl-efl-explained-deal-english-football/

"Steve, how do we bridge the financial gap if we get relegated?"

"The owners have assured us that they will continue to fund the club."

"What if the Indian courts are still refusing to allow them to send money to the club?"

"The owners have assured us that they will continue to fund the club."

Rinse and repeat... we'll get nothing useful from Waggott. Realistically there would have to be a firesale and what remains in terms of playing assets will be sold. If that isn't enough they'll look at what else they can flog to raise money. I don't think anything will be off the table. 

[Mattyblue]

When you look back at that infamous eve of season Swag interview and we sat here at the time aghast at the outlandish (we thought) and unambitious things he was saying.

(After two seasons knocking on the door of the Premier League) “We just want to develop players and stay in this division”

(Despite the owners being billionaires) “We need to help them”

And so it has come to pass-

A squad full of loans and young lads ‘to develop’ as we ‘aim’ to stay in the division.

Wharton sold to ‘help’ pay the bills for them.

 

Edited March 10 by Mattyblue

[SIMON GARNERS 194]

The future is shyte.

[Hasta]

6 hours ago, DE. said:

"Steve, how do we bridge the financial gap if we get relegated?"

He’s hardly going to tell the truth

”Honestly lads I don’t care. I’ll be 70 after this season and this job has given me a final few years to top up my savings and pension. If it looks like it’s going to get stressful financially I’m just going to bail out. I’m making key decisions now but in 2 or 3 years time I really won’t give two hoots about Blackburn Rovers. I’m not concerned or have any emotion regarding the long term future of this club. I’m in it purely to do the financial wishes of the owners in the present and get well rewarded for it.”

Edited March 10 by Hasta

[Leonard Venkhater]

1 hour ago, danger19_80 said:

New Sky EFL deal comes into play next season too which will presumably be worth more to Championship clubs

https://www.efl.com/news/2023/may/efl-and-sky-sports-broadcast-rights-agreement/

Another accidental on purpose relegation-just in time to "avoid" a significant increase in revenue.

Hmmm

[Penwortham Blue]

3 hours ago, Mattyblue said:

When you look back at that infamous eve of season Swag interview and we sat here at the time aghast at the outlandish (we thought) and unambitious things he was saying.

(After two seasons knocking on the door of the Premier League) “We just want to develop players and stay in this division”

(Despite the owners being billionaires) “We need to help them”

And so it has come to pass-

A squad full of loans and young lads ‘to develop’ as we ‘aim’ to stay in the division.

Wharton sold to ‘help’ pay the bills for them.

 

Don’t forget Swag was also on record as saying that relegation this year would be disastrous, it being on the cusp of the anticipated significant extra cash from the new EFL deal. You reap, what you sow and we can blame JDT, Eustace, players but relegation would be squarely at the hands of Swag and his Indian paymasters 😡

[Herbie6590]

4 hours ago, arbitro said:

With relegation arguably a realistic proposition I did a bit of digging and come up with some numbers. These are taken from an article in the Athletic from October last year. Currently Championship clubs get £5.19m in solidarity payments and £3.92m from the EFL. This is over £9m as a Championship club. As a League One club it drops to £780k and £950k for both payments leaving a difference of over £7m. Factor in less season and match day tickets, less income from away supporters at Ewood, less commercial and hospitality income and it could leave a £10m hole. 

A relegation would be catastrophic and in my view inevitably lead to administration. I really don't know if the people running the club have weighed up the implications. I would like this to be asked at the next Fans Forum and for Waggott to be put on the spot and interrogated as to how we could carry on.

https://theathletic.com/4957498/2023/10/16/epl-efl-explained-deal-english-football/

£10m cost…or one sale of Sammie Szmodics 🤨

[rovers11]

I don't think it will be as catastrophic financially as last time we got relegated. We've banked £22m from Wharton and have around £4m coming from Raya. We had zero assets to sell last time we went down but we have Szmodics and Carter we can sell for decent money this time around too so we'll be OK financially. Plus there's a new TV deal which means lge 1 clubs will get 25% more than they do now and the players will have clauses to slash their wages.

What is does mean is that player sales will cover any losses very easily, but how do we then replace the small amount of quality players we do have whilst also adding quality in other areas of the squad that desperately need replenishing.

Looking at the clubs in league 1, it's a very poor league that we'd do well in. The likes of Garret, Leonard, Gilsenan would do very well in lge 1. But a club like ours should not be anywhere near that league. Thank you Venkys.

 

[rovers11]

2 minutes ago, Herbie6590 said:

£10m cost…or one sale of Sammie Szmodics 🤨

Sammie is going whatever decision we are in. He deserves much better than this shambles of a club. We won't get £10m for him though. 

[simongarnerisgod]

2 minutes ago, rovers11 said:

Sammie is going whatever decision we are in. He deserves much better than this shambles of a club. We won't get £10m for him though. 

sammie,hyam,carter,tronstadt,dolan,gallagher,brittain,pears,wahlstadt,travis(if he comes back) won`t want to play league one football,thats 10 players gone as well as all the loan players,are we putting our trust in broughton,swag,eustace and the chicken abusers to replace them all and build an effective side🤒

[roversfan99]

18 minutes ago, rovers11 said:

I don't think it will be as catastrophic financially as last time we got relegated. We've banked £22m from Wharton and have around £4m coming from Raya. We had zero assets to sell last time we went down but we have Szmodics and Carter we can sell for decent money this time around too so we'll be OK financially. Plus there's a new TV deal which means lge 1 clubs will get 25% more than they do now and the players will have clauses to slash their wages.

What is does mean is that player sales will cover any losses very easily, but how do we then replace the small amount of quality players we do have whilst also adding quality in other areas of the squad that desperately need replenishing.

Looking at the clubs in league 1, it's a very poor league that we'd do well in. The likes of Garret, Leonard, Gilsenan would do very well in lge 1. But a club like ours should not be anywhere near that league. Thank you Venkys.

 

Im not convinced those players would do "very well" in League 1.

[Rogerb]

That's £10 million that needs to be found every season in league 1. You can only sustain that by selling your best players for a season. Presuming the court case rumbles on that's costing them an extra £20 million.

[DE.]

48 minutes ago, rovers11 said:

Looking at the clubs in league 1, it's a very poor league that we'd do well in. The likes of Garret, Leonard, Gilsenan would do very well in lge 1. But a club like ours should not be anywhere near that league. Thank you Venkys.

I'm not so sure, Garret aside I'm not sure how many of our players would cope with the rough and tumble of L1. Last time we had multiple players who were clearly well above that level - Raya, Mulgrew, Dack, Graham, Lenihan, Armstrong - this time we'll have players who may be suited to that level but not many who I'd consider above it based on what I've seen from them this season. 

[J*B]

If it’s one step closer to life without Venkys then it’s a risk worth taking. 

[wilsdenrover]

5 hours ago, arbitro said:

Whilst P&S doesn't apply to League One clubs they have a scheme called Salary Cost Management Protocol which reads like a salary cap. What isn't clear is if there is a transitional period for relegated clubs.

What is Salary Cost Management Protocol (SCMP)?

Salary Cost Management Protocol (SCMP) is the Financial Fair Play rules for all League One and League Two Clubs.  

The SCMP requirement is whereby a Club’s Player-Related Expenditure shall not exceed the sum of 60% or 50% of the Club’s Relevant Turnover for League One and League Two Clubs respectively.  

The Reporting Period in respect of which a Club is assessed for the purpose of the SCMP Requirement is the 12 month period recorded in the Club’s Annual Accounts. 

The full SCMP regulations can be found here

Re the bit of your post I’ve emboldened… 

 

Edited March 10 by wilsdenrover

[RevidgeBlue]

3 hours ago, roversfan99 said:

Im not convinced those players would do "very well" in League 1.

I'm bloody sure they wouldn't. Be more likely to drop straight through.

[JHRover]

We all know how this goes.

We can cling to hope that relegation is the final straw. That the financial implications or otherwise of another drop to League One finally pushes the vermin into leaving the club. For 99.9% of people it would be the end.

But not here.

It's just more of the same. Waggott making up statements on their behalf about their 'commitment' to the club, playing down financial concerns, trying to shift the blame onto fans, EFL, JDT.

I expect a similar course to last time around - Eustace has our support, determined to put it right and get us back up, blah blah blah all the usual soundbites. Unfortunately large swathes of the fanbase will forgive and forget after a few weeks it will be a clean slate, no point talking about the past, we should walk it in League One (we won't).

Of the estimated £10 million black hole we have the Adam Wharton and David Raya cash. We can sell Szmodics, Carter, Travis, Gallagher and bring in another £5 million or so. With the exodus of loans and expiring contracts and the rump of a squad left over costs will be slashed again. 

Forget about investment and building a promotion worthy squad, it will be an opportunity for further cost cuts, stand closures and Waggott's only task will be filling that £10 million hole. 

[Upside Down]

I think we'll be relegated next year.

Regardless of what division we're in.

[rovers11]

2 hours ago, J*B said:

If it’s one step closer to life without Venkys then it’s a risk worth taking. 

Relegation won't be a factor, they couldnt care less about that. Fan protests are not something that they care about either nor would they probably be aware of them happening.

The only way Venky's ever leave is if they are forced to for political or economic forces that are out of their control. The Indian government are probably our best hope. 

[JHRover]

Which is why I hold out a distant hope that the intervention of the Indian authorities and Courts may ultimately be a blessing in the long run. 

In the short term not - the stripping back of the last 12 months or so shows that - but ultimately there's now the involvement of a third party infinitely more powerful than Venkys. Up to this point they've been free to do as they please with nobody able to do a damn thing about it. Get the authorities and Courts involved and things get interesting. 

It took Court action to bring the Oystons down and get them out of Blackpool, and it might take the same to get rid of the poison here.

As long as the investigations and restrictions continue I'll hold out hope that it is leading towards findings or an end point. The worry is that the investigation goes nowhere and the restrictions are released, then we are back to square one. 

Personally I hope they are found guilty of some very serious stuff, and it ultimately brings their entire empire crashing down.

[47er]

1 hour ago, JHRover said:

Which is why I hold out a distant hope that the intervention of the Indian authorities and Courts may ultimately be a blessing in the long run. 

In the short term not - the stripping back of the last 12 months or so shows that - but ultimately there's now the involvement of a third party infinitely more powerful than Venkys. Up to this point they've been free to do as they please with nobody able to do a damn thing about it. Get the authorities and Courts involved and things get interesting. 

It took Court action to bring the Oystons down and get them out of Blackpool, and it might take the same to get rid of the poison here.

As long as the investigations and restrictions continue I'll hold out hope that it is leading towards findings or an end point. The worry is that the investigation goes nowhere and the restrictions are released, then we are back to square one. 

Personally I hope they are found guilty of some very serious stuff, and it ultimately brings their entire empire crashing down.

Behind iron bars rather than wielding them would be the optimum result!