JHRover
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Uncouth Garb - The BRFCS Store
Everything posted by JHRover
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I think I've already said two things on this subject. I also said I would pass judgment when the window was shut. First off they've surprised me with the Brereton purchase and yes I turned out to be wrong when suggesting our interest was not serious or that multi-million pound bids were not genuine. Well done all round for that one. My cynicism in relation to these owners will not immediately change off the back of a couple of good transfers but I'm happy to be proved wrong many more times if it means more money is invested and we sign more good players. Did the window exceed my expectations? I suppose in terms of the money we've paid out yes it did, because I never believed we would spend what we did on Brereton and Armstrong (even though I still believe it is short of the £9-10 million some people are claiming, probably more towards £5 million with add ons down the line). Still it is movement in the right direction. In terms of those players we have brought in overall I'm happy with the type and quality. The big ones for me are Armstrong and Brereton as long term signings, and I would have liked more long term signings rather than short term as I can forsee another major overhaul next summer. I would have liked and would still like a couple more - a back up GK/CB and another option up top - so I'm not 100% satisfied no - I don't think anyone at any club ever can be as there is always room to improve further - of importance here is the manager saying he wanted 4-5 more players and to date we've added 3, of which one is Rodwell, and Reed is only a loan. So happy with the money invested, happy with most of those brought in, but think more could and hopefully will be done.
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At the Forest end of it they were saying that the deal 'could' be worth 'up to' £7 million to them. That suggests a maximum of that if certain conditions are met and it could be less. The £4 million is an estimate as to the likely ball park downpayment we're talking here. A certain amount guaranteed up front with other chunks along the way depending on performance. The Rhodes deal was reported at £8 million yet plenty of those 'ITK' said it was nowhere near that to begin with but would have reached that had we got promoted etc.
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I don't think FFP is anything to worry about with the levels we've been spending. Whilst the Brereton deal is a lot more than I expected us to be spending, it isn't going to be a £7 million cash payout in one go. It will be a deal that could reach £7 million over the next 3-4 years if certain milestones are reached for both Ben and Rovers e.g. if we get promoted, if he scores X goals or if he plays for England. If any of those things do happen then his value and our value/revenues will increase so much that £7 million will be loose change. As with Armstrong it really is a no-brainer. We've probably committed to £4 million or so for Brereton and about £1.5 million for Armstrong. Decent money but not close to what most clubs at this level have spent recently. But the key is that there's a very high likelihood that one or both of those two lads will be worth £10 million+ in the next couple of years if they develop as expected and perform in the Championship. If they don't they've always got Dack who even now would probably fetch a £6 million profit having only played 3 Championship games in his career. Its a sensible and good way to do business, along similar lines to what they were doing under Bowyer although they seem to have released a bit more for Mowbray either because they like him or because the wage bill isn't quite as onerous as it was back then. It comes back to whether this is a genuine attempt to improve and strengthen the team for years to come or whether its with a view to a mass cull in a couple of years should we not manage to get promoted. Only time will tell but after what they did to Bowyer's team I'm treading more carefully this time. I hope they've changed and the accountants, Mowbray, Waggott and Pasha have got the message through to the bungalow that this is how to behave.
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One option might be to run buses to Ewood from areas like Leyland, Chorley, Lancaster etc. How about having a season ticket or match ticket entitles you to a subsidised trip to the ground? I was surprised/impressed when I saw last season that Charlton Athletic run buses from various places around Kent and Sussex to the Valley for home games. Places further away than South Ribble or Lancaster are from Blackburn. We need to understand, or certainly the people running Rovers need to understand, that Rovers isn't just a Blackburn/Darwen club, it is supported right across the region heavily in various towns in Lancashire. Limiting our target audience to folk in Blackburn is going to cause problems. There should be adverts going up on bus shelters in Hyndburn and South Ribble for season tickets, not just Blackburn. It's why mentioning the population/demographics of Blackburn itself as a major issue for the club is only part of the story because we've a heck of a lot of support from the region around Blackburn that should be encouraged and tapped into. Accrington Stanley make efforts to try and persuade the people of 'Hyndburn' to support their local club. Places like Ossy and Harwood are now being lumped into being part of Accy when really those areas are just as much for Rovers to try and exploit as they are Stanley, yet I don't see any promotional stuff for Rovers in the Observer etc.
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I'd prefer to see the lower Darwen End completely empty with away fans placed upstairs. That's what Bolton, Millwall, Sheffield Wednesday, QPR and even Derby, Middlesbrough and Leeds do when smaller followings come and they opt to keep away fans away from pitchside. There must be some method in their decision making. Last week Rovers were offering season tickets with the Millwall ticket cost deducted for those who had gone to the Millwall game and bought a separate ticket for that.
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Today is a good lesson in how one rumour on one website can spread like wildfire. This morning the suggestion of Chapman coming back was little more than a distant fantasy among people. Then some 'journalist' at the Daily Mail decides to run with a 'story' about us wanting him back and here we are. There might actually be some truth in it, who knows, but whether there is or not the story has now been retweeted, rehashed, repeated and passed on by so many people over the last couple of hours that all of a sudden everyone is talking about it when there's no evidence really that it is even a possibility. Isn't he still injured?
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Difficult to fairly compare newpapers' strike rate with stories. The reputable ones like the Times, Telegraph and Guardian usually don't bother with idle gossip and rumour spreading and tend to report on facts as they actually unfold, whereas our old pal at the Sun and previously the Mirror makes a living out of spreading gossip and putting rumours about which 90% of the time don't happen. Lord knows how he gets away with it with his record of success which is increasingly poor and that much of his efforts seem to be focused on Rovers, Bolton and Wigan, clubs where there can't be that much of a market for gossip, rather than the Premier League boys.
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Graham is not a 90 minute player any more. He might well have played for 90 minutes on occasions but that is a dangerous game to play for both his and our sakes. We need options and depth here for a 50+ game season. Already we're seeing injuries with Armstrong, Graham and Samuel all injured or not 100%.
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I still can't believe nobody has got hold of Maddison from Peterborough yet. They've made plans for him not being there, supposedly has a relatively low release clause, can't believe no Championship side has gone for it yet. I expect something will happen on that one this week for him to go somewhere.
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Yes but there's loads of people all over twitter and Facebook now expressing concern, unease etc. at us spending that amount. They seem quite comfortable with other clubs spending millions every window whilst we feed off the scraps and loans and then the minute we look like spending a few bob (on a player that I'd bet heavily will deliver a financial return in a few years) people are getting their knickers in a twist about it. E.g. 'Where's the money coming from?' - the answer is from the owners, same as at every club in this league, the difference is other clubs routinely spend such amounts whilst we've not have that luxury over the last 5 years. No doubt if we were going out signing Grabban for £7 million people would complain about his age and lack of resale value. We get a bright young prospect and some say it's too much of a gamble on a kid etc. Not sure why anyone is so bothered. It is Venkys money, if they want to trust the manager with it then good for them, I expect they'll eventually make a profit on Dack, Brereton and Armstrong by many millions and they've had much more than £7 million back from good transfer business over the last few years. If it works out then happy days, if it doesn't then Venkys will probably repeat the last 4 years and cease providing funds for new players whilst selling a couple to get their cash back. Its a refreshing change to be spending a bit for once so I'm not going to get myself worried about what happens if he doesn't work out well for us or what Venkys particular motives are.
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There's no point in them being in this unless they want to invest and have big plans. These days there's no reward to foreign owners of being in the Championship, only the Premier League, so lets hope whatever advice they're currently acting on (whether that be the accountants, Pasha's, Mowbray's or others) we can continue to make some sort of progress from it.
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Forest spend £7 million on Grabban, Derby spend similar on Waghorn, neither of whom will have much resale value, those clubs are showing ambition and we should accept that as a fact of life. We are reportedly spending a similar sum on a teenager who is highly likely to grow in value and subsequently be sold by the owners for a profit and we get all the talk now about it being too much money, too much of a gamble, where's the money coming from etc. Fact is we've lagged behind rival clubs for years on player spending and have hidden behind a multitude of excuses when all along the owners could have spent had they wanted to. This is clearly being sold to them as an investment which is likely to reap returns for them. Fair enough. You have to invest to even keep up yet it seems some are very uncomfortable with the concept. Meanwhile we should stand back in awe whilst clubs like Forest and Derby spend fortunes on ready made players. Odd.
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Other Football League 2018/19
JHRover replied to SBlue's topic in Blackburn Rovers Fans Messageboard
Scunthorpe have appointed Stuart McCall as their new manager. -
Doesn't actually matter that much whether those out of contract are ones we want to keep or not. The point is that we need to be building a squad bit by bit not seeing a dozen plus out of contract each year. Those bodies will need replacing properly hence why bringing in more permanents now would offset it somewhat next year.
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Next summer we'll have 13 people who are out of contract or end of loan. These are: Paul Caddis, Sam Hart, Paul Downing, Charlie Mulgrew, Corry Evans, Craig Conway, Peter Whittingham, Danny Graham, Ben Gladwin, Kasey Palmer, Jack Rodwell, Joe Nuttall and Harrison Reed. We will have Raya, Nyambe, Lenihan, Bell, Williams, Rothwell, Davenport, Samuel, Smallwood, Travis, Dack, Armstrong and possibly Brereton under long term contract. So approximately half the squad will be gone in the next 9 months as it stands. I think it needs to be much more heavily weighted towards a small number being let go and the majority here beyond then.
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To date we've spent about £2 million which is very little by Championship standards. It seems we are close to getting Brereton done for a decent sum of money, when that happens I'm ready to admit they've done more than I expected and perhaps some of my cynicism was misplaced. However I don't want the window to hinge on one signing. Brereton is good but other areas need improving.
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My expectations were mainly based on what the manager has said in public on numerous occasions. He wanted another 4 or 5, to date we're at 1 with Rodwell. Lets see if we get close to 4 or 5 by Friday then we'll discuss further. If we don't get to 4 including the Rodwell one I'll interpret that as being short of what Mowbray hoped for.
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Rodwell is only here until the summer at the moment. It appears to be an arrangement where he can come in, get up to speed, and we might be able to offer him games when we're short. He's been around the houses this summer training at various clubs. He doesn't really fit the long term building job spoken about. People also seem to be missing the possibility that if he does do well he could just as easily be snatched from under our noses next summer. As I've said previously I'm not against the Rodwell one to see how it goes but hope he's as well as and not instead of our long term targets that Mowbray has spoken about. In terms of incomings I'd say we're short of my expectations overall given the language coming from Mowbray and Waggott. I accept that probably stems from what has been said since the arrival of Armstrong, when they spoke about exciting signings and significant investment, since then we've added Rodwell and it seems soon Brereton. Brereton is the sort we should be after and spending money on but I hope as I've said earlier that it isn't all our money on one player or some bizarre Venky stunt like with Jordan Rhodes where they chuck a lot of money at one deal and elsewhere we're relying on loans and cheap deals. There are other areas need addressing and investing into.
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Again allowing yourself to be influenced by short term results and not by the longer term picture. Yes we've had a good start. Yes we're playing well. You don't need to tell me that. But the plan from several weeks ago shouldn't change on the basis of a few decent results. Whether we had won our first 5 or lost our first 5 our targets and plans should remain consistent. You don't say 'well we've had a good start so we don't need any more new players now' As expected injuries are biting and we have to add more depth or we're running a major risk.
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WHEN we get Brereton and Reed done, which we haven't yet, and IF we're counting Rodwell as one of Mowbray's targets (and not just a mutually beneficial short term arrangement to help him get fit whilst filling up the squad) then we're at 3. That means another 1 or 2 THIS WEEK. Given how long our deals take to get done, I'm not confident of that being achieved.
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Rodwell is effectively a loan as he is only here until the end of the season. If we can't or won't get the deals over the line in the long summer months then we'll struggle in January. More to the point do you think Mowbray will be happy having said numerous times he wanted 4 or 5 more bodies in preferably on long term contracts and to date we've added Jack Rodwell until the end of the season (effectively a loan)? Yes I'm happy with the Brereton one (when or if it eventually gets done). I also quite like the sound of Reed though again would prefer a permanent. That's two down, or three if we're being generous and counting Rodwell, so another couple to go.
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Mowbray wanted 4 or 5. If we count Rodwell as one of those, which I'm not even sure we can given the sounds of things with how long he's going to take, then we need another 3 or 4. Sounds like Brereton and Reed are likely to happen so that's another couple needed. That is Mowbray's target, which I agree with.
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Yes i would be disappointed with our remaining business if is was Brereton on a permanent and Reed on loan. I think we need 3 more incomings at least, preferably 4, and would like at least 3 of them to be permanent transfers, not loans and not deals until the end of the season whilst people get themselves fit (Rodwell). The manager said he wanted at least 4 or 5 additions following Armstrong, so if we get Brereton and Reed that still means another 2-3, or if Rodwell is indeed counting as one of those then another 1-2 beyond Brereton and Reed. I've already acknowledged that we've made a good start and have a group of players working very hard. That's why we need to strike whilst the iron is hot and maintain the momentum by strengthening. Expecting things to continue with the injuries we're picking up and shortage of options is pushing luck to the limit.
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Don't know what to make of the latest take on things in the Telegraph. Sounds like Brereton is imminent and to be honest both Mowbray and Karanka have suggested it is close so that is good news. The Telegraph are saying 'at least 2' in this week which is well short of what Mowbray wanted of 4-5 even with Rodwell added. Mowbray is still pushing that he wants permanent players for the longer term which is clearly the best way to do business yet we've just added Rodwell until the end of the season and it sounds as though Harrison Reed will only be a season long loan, so we're not building for the future there. I'd be pleased with Brereton but would still want and be disappointed if we didn't get at least another 2 on permanent terms who will stick with the club long term.
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Everyone is feeling positive about the start so far but we mustn't allow that start to distract from the important work that still needs doing to the squad. We clearly have a tight-knit hard-working group on our hands who will work hard for the club but we need more depth and quality and quickly. It is concerning that we're already suffering from the expected injuries which were always going to happen sooner or later but I didn't expect so suddenly. To be in a situation where we've Joe Nuttall starting games in the Championship and have Sam Hart and Paul Caddis as substitutes is not one we want to be in. Still think 4 needs to be the aim. Whilst I would be pleased with the Brereton addition I hope it isn't all our eggs in one basket and all our money on one player. If we've several million sat there to spend then i'd like 3-4 bringing in of decent quality. That doesn't mean I wouldn't pay for Brereton, but would hope if Venkys are prepared to spend that much on one player they'll make more available for the 2-3 others we need. I'll be surprised if Rodwell is in any sort of immediate contention so still think another CB would be useful. The sooner we get some of these over the line the better. Ideally a couple tomorrow so they can use Lincoln to bed in a bit.