JHRover
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Everything posted by JHRover
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The number of teams between us and the zone is also significant. There are currently 7 teams from MK Dons to Forest below us competing for 1 relegation place (assuming Charlton don't come with a miraculous late run) that have to better our points return over the remaining 7 games to overhaul us. We've also got games at home against Bristol City and Huddersfield which we should be taking at the very least 4 points from to get us to the magical 50 mark. MK Dons have 7 games left and will need to win 4 to overtake us, even if we lose all 7. I can't see them winning 4 full stop, never mind us lose all 7. They have a huge game next week at home to Rotherham which they will have to win to have a chance of staying up.
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Think Bolton have about 10 days to enter administration to get the points deduction this season. Enter after that or still in admin at the start of next season and the deduction will be applied then.
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I think back to some of those 1-0 defeats we've suffered recently - Brighton at home, Burnley away, Derby away, Reading away, Cardiff away, Bolton away. I don't think we deserved to lose any of them. Even though we were terrible at Cardiff, Reading and Bolton, we still probably deserved a point from them, and against Burnley and Derby we were by far the best team yet got nothing. If only we'd collected 6 points from those 6 games which we should have done from our performances, we'd be looking at the play-offs as a realistic target. That's how narrow the margins are in this league. Cardiff, Ipswich and Birmingham are just outside the play offs and nobody is telling me that they are a level above us. One word applies in this league - consistency. Burnley and Brighton are average sides yet have managers who have the knack of achieving consistent results even when not playing well.
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If we win on Saturday then that should just about do it, two wins would certainly do it. If we won 1 and lost 10 of our remaining 11 games then third bottom would need to finish on 47 points or more to get above us owing to our goal difference. In Rotherham's case they would need 12 points from their remaining 30 available, MK would need 10 from 30, as would Bristol City and Fulham. Leeds at home and Brentford away are the ideal games against two sides near us in the table to get 4-6 points and secure safety. Interesting to see Fulham struggling so badly, they could be dark horses for relegation. On paper they should be nowhere near the drop with the most productive strike force in the league, but goes to show there is more to this division than spending money and having a squad of talented players. We should be looking to build up some real momentum over the remainder of the season. Only Sheffield Wednesday away of the top 6 remaining so the fixture list is decent.
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That is why it was so important to pick up the win over Middlesbrough. Teams down at the bottom will pick up surprise victories like Rotherham and Charlton did yesterday and we need to keep picking up the odd win to keep clear. Another two wins and we will be fine 46 points or more with our strong goal difference will be enough.
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I can't see Bolton beating Burnley. A draw will be the best they can get. But Charlton and Rotherham are both more than capable of springing wins from their games. Reading and Brentford have nothing to play for (other than the cup) and those are the sort of games where sides fighting relegation need to put 3 points on the board. Whatever they do, a win for us is essential when you consider our upcoming fixtures after that. Middlesbrough at home, Burnley away, Birmingham at home and Ipswich away are all tricky fixtures, and whilst we are capable of picking up wins from some of them wouldn't want to be in a position where we have to.
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Financial Unfair Play (Fup)
JHRover replied to VinjayV4's topic in Blackburn Rovers Fans Messageboard
Any news on QPR yet or are the Football League boys going to make sure it drags on through this summer to allow JFH a big spend? -
Just looking at the Championship league table throws up some very interesting statistics. Rovers have conceded just 27 goals in the league this season. Only 3 teams in the whole division have conceded less goals than Rovers, those being automatic promotion chasers Burnley (26), Middlesbrough (16) and Hull (19). Derby County and Forest have conceded 27 also. Even the teams chasing the play-offs known for their defensive resilience have conceded significantly more than we have, Ipswich on 39 for example. Beyond this we have 'only' lost 10 games this season, which is a low figure for a side in our position. Birmingham and Ipswich, just outside the play-offs, have lost 9, whilst Rotherham, third bottom, have lost 9 more games than we have. In comparison to the sides down at the wrong end of the table with us, the bottom 3 sides have all conceded basically double the amount of goals we have this season, Bolton (52), Charlton (56) and Rotherham (55). Its quite clear that at the back we are a very strong side and there is little/no work that needs to be done on that front to very quickly climb the league. At the other end of the pitch the story is very different. Rovers have scored just 28 goals all season, with only Charlton (26), Bristol City (27) and MK Dons (25) scoring less goals than us. Alarmingly Fulham have scored 47 yet sit below us, whilst all the top 6 sides have scored 20+ more goals than us over the 30 games this season. I would like to think moving forward, as long as we survive this season, that the major surgery will be concentrated on our attacking abilities and not on our defence, which has been consistent all season.
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Adding to that point, we've only lost 9 league games this season yet sit among teams who have lost double that or more. Those games were at home against Wolves (2-1), Burnley (1-0) and Brighton (1-0), and away at Brighton (1-0), Reading (1-0), Cardiff (1-0), Bolton (1-0), Fulham (2-1) and MK Dons (3-0). The only game we have been comprehensively beaten has been MK Dons when we played for 80 odd minutes with 10 men and gave them a penalty. There have been some poor performances in there, namely the three away games at Bolton, Reading and Cardiff where we were very disappointing, yet I wouldn't say we were outclassed or particularly outplayed. The opposition didn't have many chances that they missed, they each had one good chance they took and we couldn't recover from that. There have also been good performances in there. I maintain to this day that we shouldn't have lost to Wolves, Burnley, Brighton away or Fulham as we were decent on those occasions for large spells and worthy of at least a point from them all. I know it's irrelevant but I think it goes to show that whilst we are short on attacking ability, scoring goals and putting teams to the sword, the flip side is that Lambert has inherited and continued with a fairly resolute side that with some good attacking additions could very quickly be turned around into a very good side in this league, where defensive consistency and keeping it tight at the back is the first priority.
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6 wins from 28 is simply unacceptable whatever the circumstances. Looking at our stats there are reasons to be positive going forward. Particularly from a defensive point of view we've been fairly resolute all season long. The games we have lost have been by narrow margins and usually 1-0s. We've not been hammered all season. The other point is that whilst we've only won 6 we've also only lost 9. 9 defeats by February usually should point towards a top half position. We've lost 10 games less than Rotherham who occupy 3rd bottom. Its very clear where our problem lies and this has been the problem now for 3 years. We draw too many and don't turn draws into wins often enough and that is harming our progression. Generally speaking we're continuing to perform in terms of limiting defeats and not giving much away defensively.
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Regardless of our own problems at present, there are 5 clubs at the bottom of this league that are really poor. Bolton, Charlton, Rotherham, MK Dons and Bristol City. If any of those finish above us this season then heads need to roll. I've got to agree that our trajectory under Lambert so far appears very similar to that which this group of players frequently demonstrated under Gary Bowyer. Go on a decent unbeaten run, get within 5 points of the top six, get everyone excited and optimistic that a push for the play-offs is possible, then undo all that good work by surrendering to 3 consecutive abject defeats to mediocre opposition. In 3 games running we've barely threatened the oppositions goal. Defeat at Bolton in particular bore many similarities to capitulations against the likes of Rotherham and Doncaster in previous seasons. Bolton were back to business as usual on Saturday when they were well beaten at home by mediocre Huddersfield. A group of players that are either unwilling or unable of taking the game to the opposition and handling the pressure of expectation. They seem to prefer to turn up for games for a kick about with a view to taking home a point rather than ruthlessly taking the 3 points. We need either an attitude change or personnel change to move away from this familiar attitude and inject a nasty winning streak.
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O'Sullivan earned very good reviews whilst at Barnsley last season and at Stanley before that, so much so that Barnsley came in with a cash bid for him last January. It's early days for him at Rochdale, I didn't watch the game yesterday but to say he can't do it at that level might not be fair when you read Barnsley supporters' views on him.
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Burnley playing recognised first teamers in Marney and Long. Only Mahoney and Forrester have made very brief appearances for our first team (not including keepers).
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I think it is down to sheer incompetence from Lancashire Constabulary. The moment they see Blackburn v Burnley they start to panic and try to change things to make life easier for themselves. The same Constabulary that were happy for 4,500 Bolton fans to travel to Preston on Saturday and spend the afternoon drinking ahead of a 6pm kick off. They seem to want it both ways. On the one hand they think they can do as they please to suit themselves, even if this means closing stadiums and denying supporters the chance to support their teams, basically branding everyone as a hooligan in the making when 99% of people have no history of football related trouble, yet on the other hand expect thousands of paying customers to turn up when the police want them to and keep them in jobs. It must have escaped their attention that without football matches and other events to police that there would be a lot of police officers with less work and lower incomes. This appears to be in breach of the rules of the Under 21 competition. If a game is played at a clubs home venue i.e. Turf Moor then it should be played outside of working hours so as to be accessible to supporters. I myself go to a lot of the Under 21 games, and I think it is a disgrace that I am being prevented from supporting Rovers on the basis of some 'recent troubles at similar youth fixtures' nonsense that clearly hasn't occurred in Rovers v Burnley games. Dreamt up by somebody in an office at police HQ who probably has no interest or understanding of football, yet have the power to prevent me from enjoying supporting my club.
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http://www.rovers.co.uk/news/article/blackburn-rovers-burnley-under-21-premier-league-cup-2778536.aspx As suspected the police have intervened and ensured that this game will now take place behind closed doors at Turf Moor next Monday with no supporters allowed in. Absolutely disgraceful decision. About time the clubs stand up to the constabulary rather than meekly do as they are told. I note there is reference to 'recent troubles at similar youth fixtures'. Can anyone shed any light on these troubles? There have only been 3 or 4 meetings between the clubs at this level in recent years and I can't recall any trouble taking place. For the Youth Cup game I parked up in Burnley and walked to Turf Moor in my Rovers top and witnessed absolutely no trouble. No doubt the week after the club will be trying to encourage more people to go and watch the Under 21s at Leigh, when it suits them, but for the big games like this one when it doesn't suit the powers that be the supporters can f*** off.
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It seems to have been missed on this thread that Rovers have been drawn against Burnley in the U21 Premier League Cup. As yet there has been no information from either club about when or where this game is to take place, but the Premier League have said that it needs to be between 9th November and 24th November. No doubt there will be quite a few from Rovers and Burnley wanting to attend this fixture. Has anyone heard anything about it?
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Well I imagine the one that signed last week he is referring to Scott Wharton who has just signed his first pro-contract with the club. He has been playing regularly at CB for the Under 21s this season and has impressed. No idea on the other two Shaw referred to.
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There are a lot of poorer sides than us in this division 'on paper'. Infact, we have players in our squad that the majority of teams in this division would be envious of. The likes of Rhodes, Marshall, Conway, Hanley. But for some reason we don't have the 'nack' of winning games. The problem is that the teams we should be comfortably above have the ability to go and grind out wins out of nothing. We don't have that nous or streak in the team. For example, Bristol City have been poor most of the season, yet they went away and won 1-0 at Middlesbrough a few weeks ago. Rotherham are a poor side, yet beat Cardiff in the last minute and followed that up with a 2-0 away win at high flying Birmingham. MK Dons went away to Rotherham and hammered them 4-1. Bolton simply don't lose at home, and that form alone will keep them above the dotted line. These are the sort of things we don't do. We very rarely go away from home against a 'better' side and grind out a win. We very rarely go away to a 'poorer' side and hammer them. We very rarely put 2 or 3 wins together on the trot. I've been to every game this season and on the basis of our performances we could easily have had another 5-6 points. We shouldn't have lost at Brighton, shouldn't have lost at Fulham, should have beat QPR, should have had a point against Wolves, and if we'd have taken our chances at the death could have beaten Hull and Cardiff. But we didn't. The fact that we were value for more points in those games than we ultimately got is partly a positive, because we haven't been well beaten or comprehensively outplayed this season, and we are talking about very fine margins in those games, yet at the same time the negative is that we have been playing reasonably well and yet have nowhere near a good enough return from those games. In this league teams have to 'cash in' when the team is performing well and get the wins on the board, because a spell of injuries or poor performances is usually waiting round the corner. So it is very concerning, because even now we need 2-3 consecutive wins to propel ourselves towards the top 6 zone, and whilst pleased with recent performances and results at QPR, Hull and Charlton it is still only 1 win in 9 league games and I have little or no faith in this team going on a winning run or going away and grinding out hard fought, sometimes undeserved, victories that nearly every other team is seemingly able to do.
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Whatever advantage Bowyer has had over rival managers in terms of wage bills is wiped out by the conditions Bowyer has been operating in since January. We can say that Bowyer has had a bigger wage bill than the Cotterills and Evans of this division, but both of those have been in the position of being able to spend money to strengthen their squads since January, and in the case of Bristol City a club who were trying to spend £8 million on a striker this summer. I'm not saying that the embargo should be used as an excuse, because for me this squad of players should be in the top half of this league, and certainly nowhere near the bottom three, but it isn't fair to say Bowyer has a bigger budget than rivals and then ignore the fact he's one of only two in this league to not spend a single penny this summer. The only player he has spent money on since January 2014 has been Shane Duffy who certainly wasn't a big money signing, whilst landing about £12 million in transfer fees and cutting the wage bill significantly. Conditions very different to most other clubs, possibly excluding the strict financial controls in place at Bolton, Ipswich and Birmingham.
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Absolutely bang on. This myth that the Premier League is 'seeing off' the smaller and more unfashionable clubs, becoming a 'closed shop' and that 'never again' could a club like Rovers hope to break in and become established is even today being blown out of the water by a large number of clubs currently enjoying the richest of the division with fanbases and infrastructure no greater than ours. There will always be space in the Premier League for the smaller clubs who do their business properly. The ongoing successes of Crystal Palace, Swansea, West Brom and Stoke show that. They have become established Premier League sides looking to push on whilst having nothing that we don't/didn't have. They have just replaced us as they have their houses in order and are well managed throughout whilst we have taken their places as struggling under mismanagement. Beyond the watershed decision to dispense with Allardyce and Williams which threw away almost guaranteed Premier League survival year on year some blame has to go to the owners of the club before Venkys, who treated the club as an unwanted hindrance and refused to invest serious money into keeping the club clear of trouble. Had it not been for the ability of Allardyce we would have gone down before Venkys were ever heard of, in no small part due to a lack of investment and selling off the clubs best players every year to generate funds.
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Can't agree with you on Holloway. If you think effectively relegating Millwall in his only full season in charge after they had been in this division for 5 years counts as doing no worse than Bowyer then we'll just have to disagree. If Holloway was any good he'd have found a way of keeping Millwall up on their limited resources. Smaller clubs with smaller budgets have managed it. In my opinion Holloway is a very unique type of manager who has a very unique way of managing. It worked wonders at Blackpool because that club itself is quite unlike any other at this level, it worked for a very short and critical time at Palace when they were in the play-offs before things quickly unravelled. Bowyer's biggest 'failure' has been that at 2 attempts he hasn't got this club promoted. Now we can talk about player turnover and wage spending all day long. We can talk about underachievement. The reality is that only 3 clubs can go up and there are a lot of other teams who all feel they should be getting promoted. Does failing to get Middlesbrough promoted make Karanka a bad manager? Because in the end, play-off final or not, he has had better conditions to work in than Bowyer, a bigger budget than Bowyer and yet here he is managing in the Championship with Bowyer. Same goes for Steve McClaren. Failed to deliver his target of promotion at 2 attempts, sacked at Derby because of that, but that doesn't make him a bad manager, otherwise he wouldn't have gone straight into the Newcastle job. Does not getting us promoted make Bowyer a bad manager? In my opinion no. I can accept that we underachieved quite substantially last year, as I personally believe the squad we had was capable of the top 6, but in my view there is a difference between a manager who doesn't get a team promoted and a manager that leaves a club getting relegated. If Bowyer was that bad or that much of a failure we would have spent time in the bottom half of the division and been in the relegation picture. But we haven't. I've already said that in view of last season's underachievement it would have been understandable had the owners wanted more for their money and made a change. For whatever reason they didn't and are planning on giving Bowyer more time. I'm fine with that, because I think that given the changes that the club has had to go through these last 2 years finishes of 8th and 9th are by no means the catastrophic failure that some feel they were. What happened last season has been and gone. Promotion wasn't achieved, a top ten finish was. Better sides than us failed to achieve promotion also (Derby, Boro, Wolves) whilst others (Wigan and Brighton) spent the season in and around the bottom 3 despite starting off as favourites. Now we're onto another season and its a blank slate for me. 2 losses from 2 is poor. I'm angry and disappointed about the cup performance but I thought we were unfortunate against Wolves. If we win on Saturday then I'll be happy again. If we lose our next 3 then I'll probably be agreeing with most on here that its time for a change, because as difficult as Bowyer's job has been and as much as I would like to see him get through the embargo, the club simply cannot risk going into League One.
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I don't think we've punched above our weight, though that is because I don't agree with the use of the term, particularly in this division. We could, and probably should, have finished higher last season. I think Bowyer's first season was a successful one, given the changes across the board that there had been and the crisis that had occurred the season before. To turn around a slow motion car crash inherited from Singh, Kean, Berg and Appleton and finish 8th in his first season whilst completely overhauling the squad was excellent. The amount of money the club was paying is a separate issue, given we know the sort of players the money was being spent on. We have Bowyer's predecessors to thank for that. Last season was an underachievement, but by no means a disaster. As disaster would have been relegation or thereabouts, but we were well clear of that all season whilst better run clubs like Brighton, Wigan and Reading struggled away all season. I don't agree Bowyer has had more money than most other teams in this league. The wage bill he inherited and has been required to drastically reduce it over a 2 year period by getting rid of people like Best who were killing the club with their contracts. How much cash has Bowyer paid out for players in 2 years? I'd guess about £4 million maximum, and there's no evidence that any of his signings have been big money wage earners. Compare to the resources on offer at clubs such as QPR, Fulham, Leicester, Norwich, Middlesbrough, Derby, Forest, Bournemouth, Wigan, and this summer Leeds and Burnley and I don't think Bowyer's spending has come close to those. Other than Ipswich and maybe Brentford did any of the teams that finished above us last season spend less on transfer fees than us? OK, so Bowyer inherited a very expensive squad on huge money. But were any of those players he inherited, bar Rhodes, fit for this club and for a promotion battle? No they weren't. They had to go for financial and footballing reasons, and whilst that process has occurred Bowyer has kept us clear of trouble, which whilst not the promotion we all hoped for could have been a lot worse. Last season has been and gone. I was disappointed with how it went and I've been disappointed with the summer. Cairney going was a huge blow for me and on the evidence of Saturday we might regret his departure more than first thought. Gestede was always going to depart if we didn't get promoted. But the owners have made the decision to stick with him. Some people agree with that, and it seems a growing number don't agree with that. I'm personally indifferent. I could understand if the people throwing £20 million a year into a black hole had fancied a change and had sacked him, but at the same time I also recognise that the situation at the club in trying to get it on an even keel and away from FUP that it has been far from plain sailing for Bowyer. Its pointless trying to compare Bowyer to someone like Karanka for example, because Karanka has had the luxury of a solid foundation to build upon, a healthy transfer kitty and scope to increase the wage bill free from FUP considerations. If Middlesbrough had been in the state we were in in 2013 then I doubt Karanka would have gone near them with a barge pole. So onto the third season we go. Given our trials this summer I would like Bowyer to be able to steer us through to a stage where we can go out and strengthen properly without the need to cut costs, get rid of wasters and worry about trying to lift the embargo. I think he deserves a chance to work in conditions enjoyed by the Karanka's and Clement's where money can be spent on decent players without worry. Because up until now I don't think he's had that opportunity. He's brought in a lot of players, because a lot have had to leave, but the vast majority have been cheap signings (most expensive Marshall at £1 million). Having said all that I recognise that all the above becomes irrelevant if our results in the immediate future are not good enough. No matter what, a football manager should be ultimately judged on results. So far we're 2 losses from 2, so not a good start, and he deserves stick for yet another woeful cup exit, and will deserve stick if we lose again on Saturday.
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The point is that for all his faults Bowyer has had two full seasons at this club, and although hasn't got us promoted has kept us consistently in the top half looking upwards at the top six rather than down below. In those same 2 years Holloway has departed 2 clubs with them both bottom of the league. I don't really see how Bowyer can be a poor manager on the above basis whilst Holloway seems to get all the slack in the world and is considered a 'proper' manager. Sure Holloway had great success at a club that matched him for being bonkers, but has also had more recent significant failures. And whilst Bowyer hasn't matched Holloway's promotion success nor has he abandoned ship with the club on a one way ride to relegation. Its not fair to say that Blackpool got promoted as relegation favourites thanks to Holloway's management skills yet completely ignore his catastrophic failure at Millwall and shambles at Palace.
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Blackpool were managed by Ian Holloway who has left his last two clubs with them on the brink of relegation, something Bowyer has yet to 'achieve' in his career.
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Saturday will be interesting. Huddersfield will be one of the teams we need to be finishing above this season if we want to avoid a relegation scrap. So if we get beat or outplayed on Saturday then the alarm bells will be well and truly ringing. I just can't see us winning these sort of away games. I wouldn't mind a lack of creativity if we got a goal ahead and then deployed a defensive plan to defend the lead and win a game 1-0, but we can't do that. If we manage to go ahead against Huddersfield I expect it will be the usual story of us camped in our own half hanging on to the lead through a combination of last ditch defending and them spurning opportunities rather than us calmly and professionally executing a plan to see the game out. Likewise I could put up with some of our comical defending if it was a result of us going gung ho and throwing everything we have at the opposition, yet we don't get that. We seem to be in the middle ground, where we can't defend properly for 90 minutes, can't keep regular clean sheets, yet at the other end create very little and cause the opposition few, if any problems. Both Wolves and Shrewsbury were no doubt anticipating a bombardment of their goals as they looked to protect their leads, yet in the end both were able to hold on comfortably, with only Koita making any kind of threat towards their goals.